There is one last singles match to be held at Wimbledon 2021 and it comes along on Sunday afternoon when Novak Djokovic bids to make a successful defence of his title when he takes on the Italian star Matteo Berrettini on a packed out Centre Court.
Djokovic goes in search of a sixth Wimbledon crown in this match while Berrettini will be looking to claim the crown for the first time. We have that classic power offense against quality defence clash of styles here which should make for an interesting final.
Novak Djokovic
In the main this tournament has been something of a cruise for the defending champion. Djokovic dropped the first set he played but he hasn’t surrendered one since then and even when he was tested to the limit by Denis Shapovalov in the semi-final, the world number one was able to come up with all the answers. That suggests that he is going to be extremely hard to stop in this final, one he will probably hope can be won a lot easier than two years ago when be edged Roger Federer out in a deciding set tiebreak.
Djokovic hasn’t really been tested other than in the semi-final although even then there was a sense that Shapovalov beat himself so it will be interesting to see what he has about him should he drop behind at any stage. In saying that he went two sets down to Stefanos Taitsipas in the French Open final and still came through so it hard to see how he can be beaten in this final unless he gets complacent and beats himself which seems unlikely.
Matteo Berrettini
Although he hasn’t been quite as impressive as Djokovic in terms of the end results in this tournament, Matteo Berrettini has also come through the draw very comfortably and has had enough in hand in all of his matches to suggest he hasn’t really been tested. You could argue that he hasn’t had to face anyone of real note, although that would be unfair on the likes of Felix Auger-Aliassime and Hubert Hurkacz who are exciting talents.
The Italian is in the middle of a good unbeaten run having won the cinch Championships at Queens in the lead up to this tournament. His booming first serve and his ability to get his cannonball forehand into play have been quite a combination over the last month or so and he will hope that in his first Grand Slam final there is enough firepower in those strokes to deliver the greatest win of his career to date. If he’s at his very best he could be a handful.
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Head to Head
These two have met twice in their career. The first one came at the ATP World Tour Finals in 2019 when Djokovic wiped out the Italian for the loss of three games. Berrettini was knackered after a long run of tournaments to make it into the draw there though so maybe a fairer guide is their second meeting which came at the French Open last month where Djokovic won their quarter final three sets to one. This will be their first meeting on grass which is something the Italian can cling onto but if history is going to be a guide then that suggests Djokovic will win here.
Betting
It is hard to see anything but a Novak Djokovic win here but at 1/4 I’m prepared to let him win and look towards the other markets for a better bet on the final. That comes in the form of over 3.5 sets, a bet which would have landed in their last meeting in the French Open last month and although Berrettini is perfectly adept to the clay courts, you could argue his weapons are more dangerous on a grass court which should serve him well if you pardon the pun.
This final could go up to and beyond three hours and it is hard to see Berrettini competing with Djokovic for that long but an inspired half an hour or so certainly isn’t beyond him so the over 3.5 sets looks to have some legs. Denis Shapovalov served for the first set against Djokovic in the semi-final and coughed up another 10 break point chances so you would think Berrettini will get his chances, or he could win a set on a tiebreak like he did in Paris. However it is done over 3.5 sets looks the way to go for me.
Tips
Back Over 3.5 sets for a 3/10 stake at 1.73 with Boylesports
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