It is the men’s semi-finals at Wimbledon on Friday afternoon and after the withdrawal of Rafael Nadal on Thursday we are left with one match to determine who it is who will meet Nick Kyrgios in the final on Sunday.
The match sees Novak Djokovic taking on the home star Cameron Norrie in a clash of both styles and experience in what will now be the centre showpiece on the main court in between all the doubles action on Friday.
Novak Djokovic
I think it is fair to say we haven’t seen the defending champion Novak Djokovic at his very best in this tournament but his campaign has been so stop-start this year that I guess that was never going to happen. The one thing we do know about Djokovic is when the business end of any tournament comes along he goes into bunker mode and produces his best tennis and it would be a huge surprise if he doesn’t do that in this match.
Djokovic will also know that his biggest danger to the title is out of the competition, and although that will pile a bit more pressure on the Serbian to come through here and take his title defence to the final match, it is also likely to inspire him to find his best tennis. Djokovic came from two sets down in his last match to Jannik Sinner and although he was ordinary for the first two sets he was inspired for the last three and if he takes the form of those latter sets into this match he’ll be hard to stop.
Cameron Norrie
This is the biggest day in the career of Cameron Norrie. This is the first time he will play in the semi-final of a Grand Slam and it just so happens to be on the main court at his home tournament where he will be roared on by a packed crowd who will be even more at fever pitch than they normally would given that the other semi-final has been taken away from them. Norrie carries the hopes of a nation on his shoulders but the fight he has shown in this tournament suggests he’ll carry it to the best of his ability.
Norrie is one of the best players in the world but I’m still not convinced grass is the surface for him. Twice he has gone five sets in this tournament and he’s done it against heavily inferior opposition which is a concern. The good thing is he was in the top half of the draw so he had the extra day off to recover for this semi-final. The negative is that his serve just looks so attackable and he’s up against one of the best returners in the game here.
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Head-to-head
These two have met on just one previous occasion and it came in the ATP World Tour Finals in Turin at the end of last season. Norrie got in as an alternative in that event and faced Djokovic in a round robin match and the Serbian won 6-2 6-1. That was on a fairly quick hard court so different conditions to here which will be something Norrie clings to as he prepares for this semi-final. This is the first time they will have met either on grass or in a knockout situation.
Betting
I don’t expect this to be a classic contest I have to say. Cameron Norrie might be competitive for a set or maybe two but I expect Novak Djokovic to come through here pretty comfortably. Norrie will fight and he’ll fight hard and give this everything he’s got but he just doesn’t have enough weapons to hurt the Serbian star in my eyes. You need more than fight against Djokovic and I’m not sure Norrie has it.
He is a leftie but he doesn’t really use the serve like many other lefties do, largely because he isn’t comfortably coming to the net and if he doesn’t get Djokovic off the court with his serve I just don’t see how he wins this because the defending champion is just much better at everything else. Unfortunately he is no bigger than 1/11 to win the match so we won’t get rich backing him. He is odds on to win in straight sets but there is a bit of juice in the 5/6 on under 31.5 games. Even if Norrie stays close in one set two one-sided sets still doesn’t get this line covered so I’m happy to play the under.
Tips
Back Under 31.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Betfair
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