2016 is coming to an end and it is time to reflect on the sporting year courtesy of the annual BBC Sports Personality of the Year show on Sunday night. There is plenty of conjecture about the merit of this award these days which is sad but if you ask any of the 16 athletes nominated for the main prize they will all tell you it is a special award to be up for let alone win and that is enough for me.
The whys and wherefores of the award can be debated by others. The night remains a strong betting heat with markets up on the winner, second and third place as well as one for the top three so we’re going value hunting.
Nominees
Nicola Adams – Boxing
Successfully defended her Olympic title.
Gareth Bale – Football
Starred for Wales in Euro 2016.
Alistair Brownlee – Triathlon
Olympic champion possibly better known for saving his brother from exhaustion in a race.
Sophie Christiansen – Paralympic Equestrian
Three gold medals in the Paralympics.
Kadeena Cox – Paralympic Athletics & Cycling
Golds in cycling and athletics at the Paralympics – the first athlete to win a medal in the same Paralympics since 1988.
Mo Farah – Athletics
Double gold medallist completing the ‘double double’ in Rio.
Jason Kenny – Cycling
Winner of three gold medals in Rio.
Laura Kenny – Cycling
Omnium and women’s team pursuit gold medallist from the Olympics.
Andy Murray – Tennis
Wimbledon champion, Olympic champion and the first Brit ever to reach world number one.
Adam Peaty – Swimming
Winner of Great Britain’s first gold in Rio.
Kate Richardson-Walsh – Hockey
Captain of Great Britain’s amazing gold medal winning hockey team.
Nick Skelton – Equestrian
58 year old who defied two broken necks in the past to win an emotional gold medal in Rio.
Dame Sarah Storey – Paralympic Cycling
Three more golds in Rio took her Paralympic haul to 14 in total.
Jamie Vardy – Football
The main man behind the amazing Leicester City title success. Came from non-league to play for England.
Max Whitlock – Gymnastics
Double gold medallist on a quite amazing day in Rio.
Danny Willett – Golf
The Masters champion. Britain’s first since 1996. Ryder Cup player.
Favourites
Nobody has ever won this title in back to back years and neither has anyone won it three times but Andy Murray is a huge 1/7 favourite to break both those trends. He looks a penalty kick in the main market with only the fact he won’t be in Birmingham any kind of potential negative.
Alistair Brownlee is one of the world’s best triathletes of all time but don’t be surprised if as much is made of his rescue act in a race a month or so after the Olympics in which the video of it went viral instantly. The public love a story and that certainly is one.
Nick Skelton has been well backed in the run up to the show night. He would tick the box that he has a story to catch on to but whether show jumping is a big enough pull to get enough votes remains to be seen.
Laura Kenny and Mo Farah both nailed double golds in Rio and give up a lot in their lives to succeed in their sport. The drug issue could detract from Farah but Kenny has every chance if her husband doesn’t steal some of her votes. Farah also isn’t in Birmingham for the show and history shows that is definitely a negative.
Other Realistic Contenders
The field is quite diluted this year with the six extra nominees but some of them are on the shortlist as a token gesture rather than having any chance of winning or placing in the main award. Gareth Bale was eighth two years ago but if the Welsh get behind him he could emulate Leigh Halfpenny’s second place from 2013.
Max Whitlock gets a lot of air time in these things and quite rightly so. He is transcending his sport and those sportsmen or women do well so don’t rule him out of running for the top three at a crazy price.
Jamie Vardy carries a story which resonates with the working man and with a number of casual sports fans watching this show that could attract some but you would think the football vote will be split between him and Bale.
Betting
Let’s be honest Andy Murray can only lose this if people think he is a foregone conclusion and either forget to vote for him or just don’t vote for him. On sporting achievement he wins by a landslide, an absolute landslide. He’s no price to win though so we’re targeting the minor places.
All evidence suggests that Alistair Brownlee’s heroics of saving his brother will guarantee him a top three finish. I’m not sure I’m convinced by that I have to say but let us not forget he is a gold medallist too and that could be significant. I wouldn’t want to be staking my mortgage on him nailing the top three especially if the incident with his brother in Mexico is glossed over for whatever reason.
I understand the strength of feeling behind strategic support through campaigns which could well see Nick Skelton and Gareth Bale go well but I’m not convinced by that method even though Kevin Sinfield was second off the back of a strong public campaign last year. I think there is too much sporting quality on show this year for that to be a factor.
If Mo Farah was at the event I might like his chances more but he isn’t so I’m with Laura Kenny here. She is a likeable sort with a wonderful personality who should get plenty of attention in her video on the night. More importantly she is a phenomenal athlete, the sort many in this country might not actually realise just how good she is. That is where her video could come into play.
I’m certain Kenny will come across well on the night and her down to earth persona will be very popular among the voters. Leaving that aside her sporting achievements have her as a leading player and I think she can finish in the top three.
Tips
Back L.Kenny Top 3 Finish for a 2/10 stake at 4.00 with Betfred
Back her here:
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