The State of Origin series has turned into one of the most one sided rivalries in sport in recent years and so the New South Wales Blues will be desperate to restore some parity to proceedings in the 2016 series which gets underway in Sydney on Wednesday.
The Queensland Maroons have won nine of the last 10 series and came out on top in a really close fought series last year. There are a few signs though that the tide might just be starting to change and that adds to the intrigue for this series.
New South Wales Blues
Despite losing the last series Laurie Daley has retained his job. He will be pleased to welcome Greg Bird back into his ranks after the Gold Coast forward was suspended from the series last year. The Blues will once again be led by Paul Gallen who hasn’t been short of a few words to stoke up the fire ahead of the series.
Robbie Farah, Michael Jennings and James Maloney are back for more but Mitchell Pearce won’t be involved due to his off field misdemeanours. The Blues have two home matches this series so they won’t get a better chance to wrestle the prize back.
Queensland Maroons
The Mal Maninga era has ended in Queensland. The former Catalans Dragons coach Kevin Walters has taken over the Maroons now and he has much of the star studded squad which has been available for previous series.
The likes of Darius Boyd, Greg Inglis, Johnathan Thurston, Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith, Matt Scott, Sam Thaiday and Corey Parker will need no introduction to anyone but there are new names on the wing in the form of Corey Oates and Dane Gagai. Billy Slater isn’t around for this series due to injury while Justin Hodges has retired.
Betting
When I looked at the odds I was expecting Queensland to be favourites even though the Blues are at home. I never really like to take the away side in these series but I have to say I am tempted by the Maroons in this opener because they have a squad who know what Origin is all about whereas some of the New South Wales side are new to this level.
That said opening games in Origin are notoriously tight affairs. They are tight in both winning margin and number of points. To highlight that the scores in the opening matches since 2010 read:
2015 – NSW 10-11 Queensland
2014 – Queensland 8-12 NSW
2013 – NSW 14-6 Queensland
2012 – NSW 10-18 Queensland
2011 – Queensland 16-12 NSW
2010 – NSW 24-28 Queensland
As we can see in the last five series the highest number of points in the opener was 28 and the largest winning margin was just eight points so all the signs are that we’re going to get a tight game.
It might be that the power that the Blues have on their bench could make the difference in this game but I really do believe this is a match which could go either way. I’m not going to back either side to win but those who do might get better value taking whoever they back to win by 1-12pts if recent stats are to be believed.
I am going to keep those statistics on my side though and take under 30.5pts. It is a bet which would have landed in each of the five openers and with a passionate crowd behind them the very least I’m expecting is for the Blues to remain equally as competitive here. This should be a cracking match but like years gone by it is likely to be tight so it is the unders for me.
Tips
WON – Back Under 30.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.85 with William Hill
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