We are less than a week away from the start of the Sky Bet League 2 season beginning which means now is about the right time to form an outright picture of the campaign ahead to see if we can pin down the title winners.
Portsmouth came from the clouds to win the title 12 months ago and their exit along with those of Doncaster, Blackpool and Plymouth gives the league a much weaker look this season and that is highlighted in the betting.
Recent Winners
2016/17 – Portsmouth
2015/16 – Northampton Town
2014/15 – Burton Albion
2013/14 – Chesterfield
2012/13 – Gillingham
2011/12 – Swindon Town
2010/11 – Chesterfield
2009/10 – Notts County
2008/09 – Brentford
2007/08 – MK Dons
The Favourites
Almost from nowhere Mansfield Town are the 11/2 favourites to win the title this season. They have undergone a major overhaul of their squad under the mouthy Steve Evans and while he has taken plenty of experience and defensive mite to the One Call Stadium there doesn’t look to be a standout marquee signing. Plymouth went down the overhaul ploy to good effect last year and while Evans should have them bang there this doesn’t look like a squad I want to be ploughing my hard earned on for relative little reward in nine months time.
Arguably the unluckiest side in the league last season were my own team Luton Town. I say unlucky and I mean that in terms of the fact they finished fourth and never went up although in truth they never deserved to and were never going to. They lacked experience and their home form was a shambles. Nathan Jones has addressed the naivety with some really solid signings and towards the end of last season the Hatters were winning regularly at home. Luton will score even more goals this season with James Collins around and if they remain as tight at the back they will go up. They too are no price though.
Lincoln City are 12/1 to jump straight through this division at the first attempt. You look at the signings they have made and there are a few that really jump out as potentially impressive. Michael Bostwick and Matt Green should be very good at this level. I’m concerned that they will look their management team at some point this season especially if they get off to a good start and even if they don’t they might be a touch short at 12s.
Coventry City knew their relegation fate pretty early last season but went down with a bang in winning the Checkatrade Trophy to highlight the potential they do have. They are 12/1 to bounce back from that disappointment by winning the title but before we take that we need to be absolutely certain that their off field issues are not going to resurface. They never seem to go away so they are of little interest to me as a result.
Swindon Town were another side who were relegated last season and at 14/1 they could well be dangerous this season. They have employed David Flitcroft who got Bury promoted a couple of years ago and with a few decent players in place and his knowledge of the division I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they bounce back at the first attempt. Whether that is with the title remains to be seen.
The Contenders
Exeter City were the beaten play-off finalists last season and they will need to get over that quickly. We’ve seen sides who are beaten in that lottery struggle early on. Exeter could well be one of those with Ollie Watkins now at Brentford. I think a title tilt will be beyond them.
Carlisle United were my pick for the title last year and heading into Christmas it looked very good but then they died on their backside and ended up missing out on promotion completely. I have this thing about sides who finish badly start the next season badly. The Cumbrians don’t stand out as much to me this year.
Notts County are a side I always expect to go better than they actually do. In theory they should be massive challengers this season with the personnel they have but something always holds them back which makes them a touch skinny at around 16s.
Chesterfield were relegated far too tamely for my liking last season. Gary Caldwell came in around January time but couldn’t have an effect and while they should be more than competitive at this level if they do go up I think it will be via the play-offs rather than the title.
Best of the Rest
Cambridge United are always talked up more than they probably should be. They finished 11th last season but were never going to finish much higher than that and it is hard to see where they have made the significant improvements that are needed to challenge for the title.
Wycombe Wanderers punch above their weight in this division and while I pity anyone who watches them week in week out their ‘style’ is generally effective in this league. If they avoid injuries they should go along ok but a lack of depth is likely to rule them out of the title picture.
Accrington Stanley were beaten in the play-offs two seasons ago and but for the hangover they suffered from that at the beginning of last season they would have had another crack at the end of season lottery at the very least. File them in the dark horses draw even with Shay McCartan now at Bradford.
Betting
I always find betting on this particular title difficult. One of the reasons for that is with three promotion spots available a side can secure one of them relatively early and then get carried away and not go on and win the title. We saw that with Doncaster last year so while I think a couple of the favourites are good things to go up I don’t want to be chinned at the death on a short priced thing who are jollying it up while I’m crying into my pint.
If everything was equal and I would get paid out next month rather than wait nine months then I would back my own side Luton Town for the title. In the end they were one of the best sides in the league come the end of last season and they have strengthened significantly. They should be champions this season but they still carry a relatively inexperienced manager and are still predominantly a young squad. They would take top three like a shot whereas if we are getting involved we would want them to win the title.
Ultimately I think the best way to play this campaign from the beginning is to take a dark horse who can get in the mix and then we can reassess as we go along. Take Luton and Mansfield out and this division is wide open. The side I like for that are Accrington Stanley.
While Stanley lost out in the play-offs two seasons ago for much of that campaign they were in the top three and a win on the final day would have seen them automatically promoted. They could even have gone up in second place. They didn’t win and the rest was history. They suffered the inevitable hangover as a result but they came flying home last season and nearly nicked a play-off spot late on.
John Coleman is a canny operator at this level and is a master at getting the best out of what he has got. That isn’t to say he hasn’t got much. Sean McConville is one of the better footballers in the league and Billy Kee knows where the goal is. If they get off to a better start this season they could ride a wave and be in the mix coming down the stretch. At 33/1 they are the right price to get our League 2 ante-post book going with.
Tips
WON – Back Accrington Stanley to win League 2 (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with William Hill (1/4 1-3)
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