The first half of the ATP World Tour Finals group stage concludes inside the o2 Arena on Thursday and at the end of the day we will know the first two semi-finalists in both the singles and the doubles competitions.
The tournament is really hotting up now and we have a couple of straight knockout matches to enjoy on Thursday mixed in with a couple of dead rubbers that we so often get at this stage of the event.
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Afternoon Session
Henri Kontinen & John Peers vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert & Nicolas Mahut
The defending champions put their title on the line in a winner takes all clash against the French pairing when Henri Kontinen and John Peers face Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Nicolas Mahut in the final group match for both pairings.
The equation is quite simple. Whoever wins will go into the semi-final and whoever loses will miss out completely so this is effectively a quarter final. Both pairs have had their issues in this tournament but I think the defending champions will win this one. They have the better record here and bar a John Peers meltdown in the opening match they’ve not done a huge amount wrong.
That said, the French pair can be inspired so any value that there is in the 5/6 on the Aussie-Finn is not massive so I’ll leave this alone.
Roger Federer vs Marin Cilic
Other than world ranking points this match is a dead rubber. Roger Federer will be playing a semi-final on Saturday while Marin Cilic knows his season will end after this match but they have to play out what is a repeat of the Wimbledon final.
Federer won on straight sets on that occasion and unless Cilic can overcome the demons he seems to have when he plays on this court it is hard to see anything other than a repeat of that outcome. That’s how I see it ending but there is no value in the odds on anything to tempt me into a bet here.
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Evening Session
Jean-Julien Rojer & Horia Tecau vs Ryan Harrison & Michael Venus
The doubles match in the evening session is another dead rubber which is a shame given that it pits two of the Grand Slam winners against each other. The US Open champions of Rojer and Tecau will leave the tournament after this match while the French Open champions Harrison and Venus will progress to Saturday’s semi-finals.
If these two pairs had played each other we might have had something to go at. Had the match had a competitive edge to it then given that Harrison and Venus have played the better of the two so far I would probably have chanced them but there isn’t enough in it in truth and I’m no fan of betting on dead rubbers without extreme value. I’m not getting that here so I’ll skip this one.
Alexander Zverev vs Jack Sock
The final match of the day is probably the biggest one as Alexander Zverev takes on Jack Sock to determine who will finish runner up in the group to Roger Federer. Once again the equation is quite simple here. Win and play Grigor Dimitrov in Saturday’s semi-final. Lose and it is hello to the beach.
Both men have played some really entertaining tennis in this tournament so far. Zverev has been involved in two three setters, one of which he rescued from nowhere and the other he wilted in the decider. Sock forced Federer to play two tight sets and then outlasted Marin Cilic in an o2 epic on Tuesday.
Given what is at stake here I think we are all set for another lengthy epic. Both these men are fantastic shot makers and I’m not expecting to see too much in the way of service breaks so I’m expecting a really lengthy contest, one which should see the 22.5 games line covered in this group once again.
Tips
WON – Back A.Zverev vs J.Sock – Over 22.5 games for a 4/10 stake at 1.80 with Bwin
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