The group stage of the ATP World Tour Finals draws to a close on Friday and when the action concludes inside the o2 Arena after another double session day of play we will know the line up for the semi-finals of the year ending showdown.
We already know that Roger Federer and Jack Sock have escaped one singles group with Ryan Harrison and Michael Venus joined by Henri Kontinen and John Peere escaping from the doubles group. We are all set to find out who will join them.
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Afternoon Session
Bob Bryan & Mike Bryan vs Oliver Marach & Mate Pavic
The action begins with what is largely a dead rubber as the Bryan brothers take on the second alternate pairing of Oliver Marach and Mate Pavic. I say this is a dead rubber because whatever happens here the qualification scenario will depend on the result of the later match.
The alternate team can’t go through here so are playing for the experience and win or lose the Bryans will only be through if Kubot and Melo win later in the day so this is a bit of a weird situation. That should mean we get some great tennis to enjoy but it also makes it very much a game we should not bet on.
Dominic Thiem vs David Goffin
There are no such complicated mathematical issues to worry about in the afternoon singles. Dominic Thiem will take on David Goffin with the equation very simple. Win and you face Roger Federer in the semi-final on Saturday afternoon. Lose and your tournament is over so this is a quarter final in all but name.
Both men have enjoyed good wins over opponents this week. Thiem saw off the alternate Pablo Carreno-Busta on Wednesday while Goffin’s win came against Rafael Nadal on Monday evening. Both played very well for their wins too it must be said.
The big concern for Goffin here is how jaded he looked against Dimitrov on Wednesday. Dimitrov was brilliant and Goffin was getting over the high of beating Nadal but you could see in his body and mind how tired he was. He has played a lot of tennis to get here and there is no doubt Thiem is the fresher man with his form coming in here having been patchy.
He has played well this week though and I think the longer this goes the better it will be for him. He’s the better player of the two and his extra energy can see him home.
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Evening Session
Marcelo Melo & Lukasz Kubot vs Jamie Murray & Bruno Soares
The deciding match in the doubles group on Friday has many dynamics to it. Firstly it sees the number one team of the year going up against a very capable side but the equations on offer here are substantial.
Marcelo Melo and Lukasz Kubot are into the semi-finals already and they need one set here to guarantee winning the group. Jamie Murray and Bruno Soares know that whatever happens earlier in the day they have to win here to progress. If they win in straight sets they win the group and face Kontinen and Peers. Win in three they go through in second and face Harrison and Venus.
I’m not going to get involved in this one. I can’t put money on a side who don’t need to win but at the same time I don’t really want to take on the best side in the competition. No bet for me.
Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Grigor Dimitrov
The final match of the group stage is yet another dead rubber on Friday as the alternate Pablo Carreno-Busta is playing purely for ranking points as he is out of the competition. He takes on a Grigor Dimitrov who knows that win or lose here he will be facing Jack Sock in the semi-final on Saturday night.
I’m sure this will be an entertaining game especially as both players have the freedom to excite in a exhibition style but it certainly isn’t a match to bet on so I’ll leave it alone from that point of view.
Tips
Back D.Thiem to beat D.Goffin for a 5/10 stake at 1.83 with Boylesports
Back him here:
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