The PGA Tour moves on to the Greenbrier Classic this week and with tournaments beginning to run out before the playoffs for many teeing it up here it is another huge tournament. As well as FedEx points and the regular tour benefits to play for there are spots in The Open up grabs so this is a big event.
The competition wasn’t played last year because of flooding in the area so it will be a memorable week for those involved in the running of the tournament.
Recent Winners
2015 – Danny Lee
2014 – Angel Cabrera
2013 – Jonas Blixt
2012 – Ted Potter Jr
2011 – Scott Stallings
2010 – Stuart Appleby
The Course
The Old White TPC has had the necessary refurb after the flooding of last year and is back to stage the tournament. The course is a par 70 which measures 7,286 yards. It remains to be seen whether it plays how the old version did.
Not much has changed here apart from the greens being flattened out and bunkers being reshaped to protect them. Before the flooding hitting greens in regulation was always a key statistic and I am going to go with that dynamic here although tee to green monsters will never be far away.
The Field
It must be said that this isn’t the greatest field this week but with Rory McIlroy hosting a huge event in Ireland we possibly shouldn’t have expected it to be. That said there are some top names turning up to compete.
Patrick Reed, Kevin Kisner, Bill Haas and of course Phil Mickelson can all win any tournament that they enter. Bubba Watson and Keegan Bradley are also household names who will tee it up this week.
Market Leaders
Patrick Reed is the favourite this week at 14/1 and while I remain convinced that he will win soon I can’t be getting involved in him at that price as he continues to play himself out of events with a bad hole here and there.
Kevin Kisner is two points bigger than Reed and he looks to have a very strong chance. If we knew we were tackling the same course as before then I might well have considered him but I don’t want anyone less than 20/1 here from a value point of view.
Bill Haas is next in the betting at 18/1 and you can never truly write him off but I always feel he is slightly better when he flies under the radar. He doesn’t do that here. Phil Mickelson is 22/1 but with no Bones alongside him for the first time it remains to be seen what he will do so I’ll leave him out too. It is 25/1 bar that quartet in an open looking event.
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Main Bets
I have two main bets this week hoping to follow up the win with Kyle Stanley last week. Danny Lee won this tournament the last time it was staged and while I don’t normally take a ‘defending champion’ I think the dynamics are different here. Lee has been in good form recently with three top 10s in his last six outings and at a venue where he’ll have good memories even if the course is slightly different I think he holds a leading claim.
Webb Simpson had a good record around the old track here and he’s swinging the club well enough to go well here this year too. He has had two top 10s in his last four starts with one that wasn’t a top 10 being the US Open on a track far too long for him. Simpson ranks 13th for strokes gained into the greens and with three top 10s here there is something about the place he likes. He is worth a bet here.
Outsiders
I’m taking two at bigger prices too. Stewart Cink has been playing well recently. He should have won for me a few weeks ago but couldn’t get it done on the Sunday but having had that experience I don’t think he will melt again if in contention. Cink sits 11th in the strokes gained into the green statistic and on flatter greens he should perform well on the dance floors too. I think he has the potential to go deep here.
Ted Potter Jr is a former winner of this tournament and he arrives here in blinding form which has to make him a live runner. He has three top 10s in his last eight starts albeit in the web.com tour but we saw the form of that tour run well in recent weeks so I’m not going to rule him out just because of that. Potter Jr is third on the web.com in the all-around ranking which should make him a good fit for this track once again.
Tips
Back D.Lee to win Greenbrier Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back W.Simpson to win Greenbrier Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back S.Cink to win Greenbrier Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back T.Potter Jr to win Greenbrier Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
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