The PGA Tour leaves the West Coast to head to Florida this week for the start of the Florida Swing which as ever gets underway with the Honda Classic, a tournament which has delivered some superb golf in recent seasons.
A top class field full of depth and quality has been assembled with many warming up for the first WGC of the year next week which should make for an extremely competitive four days of golf.
Recent Winners
2016 – Adam Scott
2015 – Padraig Harrington
2014 – Russell Henley
2013 – Michael Thompson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Rory Sabbatini
2010 – Camilo Villegas
2009 – YE Yang
2008 – Ernie Els
2007 – Mark Wilson
The Course
PGA National is a fantastic course to begin the Florida Swing on. It is a par 70 which measures just 7,140 yards. For the second straight year it played the hardest par 70 outside of the majors last season and it isn’t hard to see why. There are bunkers on this course everywhere you look and 13 of the 18 holes have water in play. This is a great test.
Jack Nicklaus designed the course and like all of his courses this is very much a second shot course. Hitting greens are crucial around here and those who putt well, especially on Bermuda greens generally stand out from the rest of the pack. The iconic holes on the course at 15, 16 and 17 – known as the Bear Trap and if you play those in par for the week you’re well ahead of the field.
The Field
This is a really good field. Adam Scott returns to defend the title but the challengers to him are strong and plentiful in supply. Two current major champions are in the field as Danny Willett and Jimmy Walker tee it up.
2017 tournament winners Justin Thomas, Sergio Garcia and Hudson Swafford are also in the field as are stars like Rickie Fowler, Daniel Berger and Louis Oosthuizen. This should be a great week.
Market Leaders
Adam Scott is 12/1 to defend the title this week. He won well last year but he was in the middle of a purple patch of form then which he isn’t currently in. He doesn’t look to be driving it as well as he needs to and he has never been the best defender of a title so I’m happy to pass him over here.
Justin Thomas and Sergio Garcia finished third and second respectively behind Scott last year and both are 16/1 to win the tournament this year. Both have won an event this season. Thomas destroyed two good fields to do the Hawaiian double at the beginning of the year while Sergio Garcia led the field a merry dance in Dubai. Neither can be ruled out here.
Rickie Fowler is a point bigger at 17/1 and his nous when the wind blows makes him a dangerous runner here. He led at halfway last year before fading away and if he puts four rounds together at his best he is dangerous. He has gone on record to say he enjoys this home game for him so he can’t be ruled out either. It is 28/1 bar those big four.
Main Bets
You can make a case for plenty of runners this week but I’m going with two main bets. The first is a real course horse in Russell Knox. Knox lives close by which is never a bad thing. He had a chance to win this tournament in 2014 when he lost in a playoff, a tournament which probably launched his career, and he was third the year after. Knox is ideal for around here with his pin point iron play and given that he likes these greens I’m expecting a big run from the Scot.
I’m also expecting a big run from a man I’ve been a massive fan of for a couple of years. That is Kevin Kisner. Kisner leads the PGA Tour in proximity to the hole from the fairway this season which should be a big statistic around here. He arrives here in excellent shape and I fully expect him to be deep in the mix. At 40/1 there’s a touch of the no brainer around him here.
Outsiders
I’ve been waiting for the right chance to have a bang at Luke Donald and this could well be the week. He went very well on a Riviera course which in theory should have been too long for him last week but that should have tuned him up nicely for this week. He spoke during that week how he is determined to get back to winning ways and on a course he won on in 2006 this could be his week. At his best few beat him with an iron in their hand or a putter and if good recent form has built his confidence up Donald is a big contender this week.
I like William McGirt on Nicklaus layouts. He won The Memorial last year on one and generally has a game suited ideally to them so I’m expecting a decent run from him this week too. At a three figure price he is easy to be added on to the list of bets given the vast improvement he has made to all parts of his game in the last 18-24 months.
Finally I’m going to chance my arm with Ian Poulter. Poulter should have won this tournament two years ago when the drink was like a magnet to his ball in the final round but if in contention again I don’t think he will wilt so badly. He put together three decent rounds in the wind in Dubai recently which shows he is hitting the ball well and if he can just put a decent Sunday on top he shouldn’t be far away in the state he now resides in.
Tips
Back R.Knox to win Honda Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-6)
Back L.Donald to win Honda Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-6)
Back them here:
Back K.Kisner to win Honda Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back W.McGirt to win Honda Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back I.Poulter to win Honda Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
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