The Italian Open has reached ‘Moving Day’ and after a low scoring opening two rounds low scoring is expected once again in Milan on Saturday. The field has been whittled down to 66 players for the remainder of the event and with huge money in play at this tournament every shot could be worth plenty over the final two days.
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Friday Recap
At the end of a second low scoring day in a row we have joint leaders with Marcus Fraser and Matt Wallace leading by two strokes on 13 under. Wallace is looking for a second title of the season and is in a good position at the halfway stage. Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Jamie Donaldson are their nearest challengers. They are 11 under with the defending champion Francesco Molinari a further shot back at 10 under.
With the cut mark at four under the entire field is split by just nine shots so anyone still in the competition can launch a charge and win which is what I hope the four remaining outrights that we have through to the weekend can do. After another losing bet on Friday I’m hoping for a big weekend betting wise.
Saturday Betting
Although he is three shots back Molinari remains the favourite to defend his title but the outright market is not one I’m that interested in revisiting given the bunched nature of the leaderboard and the fact we have a golf course that is there for the taking. I have three outrights that are genuinely in the mix and a fourth in Fitzpatrick who can easily shoot himself into contention so I’ve no need to go back in.
Saturday 2 Balls
The 66 remaining players are out in pairs on Saturday and the majority of the groups on the golf course have been priced up. The leaders are out at 12.25 UK time although most of the crowds will probably follow the Francesco Molinari and Eddie Pepperell group at 12.07. Jon Rahm and Nino Bertasio may see plenty of followers in their gallery too when they set off at 10.50. I like one bet down the card.
Marcus Fraser vs Matt Wallace
Match tees off at 12.25 BST
The group in question is the final one out onto the golf course where the Australian player Marcus Fraser takes on the winner of the Open de Portugal in Matt Wallace.
Both men go into the final round on the same score but when you look through the statistics of the week it is amazing that Fraser is 13 under. He has barely hit more than half the greens in regulation and just seems to be holing everything when he does hit them. I would imagine the course will play easier on Saturday in which case finding the greens will be important. Wallace is going that and he’s holing his fair share of putts.
Unless the Australian can start dialling in some irons he may be left behind in what is likely to be another low scoring day in the Italian city.
Tips
WON – Back M.Wallace to beat M.Fraser for a 4/10 stake at 1.95 with LeoVegas
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