The fifth Rolex Series event of the European Tour takes place this week when one of the oldest events stages its latest renewal. A seriously good field has been assembled at the Italian Open where there is plenty of money at stake which could have big implications on the Race to Dubai.
There is almost a million euros to the winner this week which will shake things up and with a low key event on the PGA Tour a number of star players are in Milan for what should be a very good tournament.
Recent Winners
2016 – Francesco Molinari
2015 – Rikard Karlberg
2014 – Hennie Otto
2013 – Julien Quesne
2012 – Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano
2011 – Robert Rock
2010 – Fredrik Andersson Hed
2009 – Daniel Vancsik
2008 – Hennie Otto
2007 – Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano
The Course
The Golf Club Milano hosts the tournament for the third time this week. This course is in a cracking setting with the Monza race circuit next door and the treelined design of the track ensures those sounds whistle around the complex.
The course itself is a par 71 which measures 7,156 yards but it is not a course the bombers have an advantage on. In fact this is one for accuracy with hitting fairways very much a must. The reason for that is the tiny greens which you have more control in terms of hitting from the fairway. The rough isn’t massively penal here but controlling a ball is not easy from it.
One thing we can guarantee this week is that this is going to be a low scoring event. At this time of year lift, clean and place will be in operation so hitting the fairways will gather more importance and from good lies into soft greens this course has little defence.
The Field
There are some serious players here this week. The top three from the Race to Dubai rankings tee it up with Tommy Fleetwood, Sergio Garcia and Jon Rahm all in the field. The new Dunhill Links champion Tyrrell Hatton is also here as is the British Masters winner Paul Dunne.
Ross Fisher, Lee Westwood, Alex Noren, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry and Martin Kaymer add serious quality to the event while the likes of David LIngmerth, Graeme McDowell and Luke Donald are over from America looking to win some big money. Local hero Francesco Molinari is here to defend the title in front of his own people.
Market Leaders
Jon Rahm is the 13/2 favourite to take care of the field on his first attempt at the tournament. He has already landed one Rolex Series event this season having won in Ireland and another will put him right in Race to Dubai contention. Whether he can drive it straight enough remains to be seen though. He’s the leading player in the field on world rankings but this is a strong group to be taking 13/2 about.
Francesco Molinari is the second favourite this week. He is 14/1 to land the title for a second year in a row. He would be the second defending champion in as many weeks to defend a title. You wonder whether he can putt so well for a second time in a row having holed plenty here last year. I’d have my doubts and he is short enough not to have to pay to find out.
Tyrrell Hatton and Sergio Garcia are next in the betting at 18/1. Winning back to back is never an easy thing to do but we saw last week that Hatton can go low. Garcia is an interesting proposition. At his best he could lead these a merry dance but will his putter hold up?
Matthew Fitzpatrick is 20/1 to land a second title in as many months having won in Switzerland last month. This treelined track could really suit him, as it could Tommy Fleetwood who is just a couple of points bigger at 22/1 to win his first Rolex Series tournament. It is 28/1 bar.
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Main Bets
I took Matthew Fitzpatrick to win the British Masters a couple of weeks ago to no joy but after a couple of rounds he was right there. Maybe it was the rust of a couple of weeks off which stalled his progress over the weekend but I’m all over him again here. He won around a treelined course at Woburn and this one looks to set up perfectly for him. He is a tee to green machine who is a wonderful putter. Even at 20/1 I’m in.
Ross Fisher must be absolutely buzzing right now after breaking the course record at the Old Course at St Andrews last week. That course is there for the taking in the modern era with no wind but players don’t card 61s every day. That showed he is striping his irons nicely and on small greens we don’t need to worry about his putter too much. It is hard to see Fisher being out of the mix if he keeps his form from Sunday up.
Outsiders
I’m going with four outsiders. Originally it was going to be three but having read the European Tour website I’ve added another on a gut feel.
Danny Willett is the gut feel. He is very open and candid in a blog on the European Tour website where he talks about good memories inspiring his game and having come third and second here it might be that he is rejuvenated for the week. In fairness there have been signs that his new coach and swing changes are beginning to work and a tournament like this where there is no pressure on him might just fire him back into life. At 90/1 I have to pay to see.
One of the best golfing performances I ever saw came around a treelined course not too dissimilar to this one which was when Byeong-Hun An won at Wentworth a couple of years ago. If his driver works this week I fancy he could go very well as he is aggressive with his irons and more than capable with his putter. This looks like a course he should thrive on at a big price.
I always like to take a local man in these events and Nino Bertasio fits the bill for me this week. He is plenty long enough that he can use the shorter clubs off the tee for position and we know he likes to go pin hunting. If he can dial in the irons then he is another who could go very close over the course of the four days.
Another man who has been really going at flags in recent times is Lee Slattery and his form has been good as a result. He had four top 20s in a row either side of a break with good finishes in Scotland, Germany, Czech Republic where he should have won and Switzerland. While that was going on his partner was expecting a child which might be a reason for three indifferent weeks. I suspect on this deck he’ll go after the course and he could be a massive price.
Tips
Back M.Fitzpatrick to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 21.00 with LeoVegas (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back R.Fisher to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back N.Bertasio to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back L.Slattery to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
Back D.Willett to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Betbright (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back B-H.An to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
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