The first round of the Nedbank Golf Challenge takes place in Sun City on Thursday as the condensed field take to the Gary Player Country Club course looking to put themselves in a good early position in the penultimate event of the European Tour season.
The usual markets have been put together for the opening 18 holes so it would be rude of us if we did not get stuck into them.
First Round Leader
I usually don’t get involved in this market when there is not a clear way of separating the field but in the last few of these slimline field tournaments one of the players I’ve backed outright have been right up there after the first round.
In theory with only two hours splitting the first tee off time and the last and only 70 odd players in the field there is nobody more advantaged than another so the best golfer on the day is likely to head the field.
I’ve convinced myself to have a bet in the market on Thursday. Joost Luiten is a player I’ve backed and when you consider he has opened with 64s in two of his last five tournaments as well as a starting 66 at Valderrama he is clearly coming out of the traps early. At 33/1 I’ll pay to see if he has another low Thursday in him.
Thursday 3 balls
With an event of this size it almost goes without saying these days that all of the groups have been priced up. The pick of the three balls on Thursday is the final one off the first tee which contains defending champion Alex Noren, Race to Dubai leader Tommy Fleetwood and fellow Rolex Series event winner Rafael Cabrera Bello.
That group is sure to take around a decent following as will the one prior to it which includes Louis Oosthuizen out alongside Ross Fisher and Francesco Molinari but it is two others which have caught my eye from a betting point of view.
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Alexander Bjork/Scott Hend/Pablo Larrazabal
Match tees off at 07.11 GMT
Three men looking for their first big week in Sun City tee off in the second match of the morning when Alexander Bjork partners Scott Hend and Pablo Larrazabal onto the course. None of the three players have had many great results in recent times so this looks an even group.
That is not the case when we look at the driving accuracy statistic over the course of the season where Bjork leads Larrazabal by some 70 places overall on Tour and Hend by well over 100 spots. You have to hit the fairways around here so Bjork has an advantage there and you have to be able to scramble too.
Bjork is ranked inside the top 20 for scrambling this season whereas neither Larrazabal nor Hend are inside the top 140 so the Swede very much has an advantage there. Putting those factors together the 9/4 Bjork for this group looks good value.
Renato Paratore/Jorge Campillo/Mike Lorenzo-Vera
Match tees off at 07.33 GMT
Three more men who will be wanting big weeks here to pick up big cheques before the end of the season will go out onto the golf course in the fourth group of the day and it puts together an interesting clash in styles.
Paratore gives it a good bash off the tee but the rest of his game is suspect while Campillo is excellent on the greens but not so certain getting to them. Mike Lorenzo-Vera plays a typical French style in that he is straight from tee to green but unlike a lot of French players his scrambling ability is wonderful.
In fact it is so good he sits in the top 10 for that statistic this season whereas neither of his playing partners are in the top 100. No matter how well you play around here you have to scramble well so with that in mind my money is on the Frenchman in this group.
Tips
Back J.Luiten First Round Leader (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
WON – Back A.Bjork to beat S.Hend & P.Larrazabal for a 3/10 stake at 3.25 with William Hill
Back him here:
WON – Back M.Lorenzo-Vera to beat R.Paratore & J.Campillo for a 3/10 stake at 2.80 with Paddy Power
Back him here:
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