The FedEx Cup play-offs begin this week with The Northern Trust, which features the leading 125 players on the PGA Tour teeing it up looking to make sure they do enough to have a tee time next week as the lucrative run of tournaments come thick and fast.
Patrick Reed won this tournament last year to set up a good finish to the season. Top spot in the rankings is up for grabs for a significant number of the field here so this should be a cracking week.
Recent Winners
2016 – Patrick Reed
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Hunter Mahan
2013 – Adam Scott
2012 – Nick Watney
2011 – Dustin Johnson
2010 – Matt Kuchar
2009 – Heath Slocum
2008 – Vijay Singh
2007 – Steve Stricker
The Course
The tournament remains in New York this week but it has moved to the Glen Oaks Golf Club. The course is a composite one made up of holes from the three nine holes tracks on the complex. It is a par 70 which stretches as far as 7,347 yards.
Many judges call this the ‘Augusta of the North’ and visually it certainly has similarities to the famous design. The fairways are generally wide and the greens are firm and undulating with significant run off areas so it looks like this will be a mini-Masters albeit with Poa annua greens.
I think length will be a significant feature this week, as it is at Augusta but it is imperative to be on players who can scramble and putt, again very much in keeping with what is needed at The Masters.
The Field
We are without five men who are eligible to feature this week so the field is down to 120 but aside from Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott, who account for two of those five, it is absolutely stacked with real top quality.
Three of the four majors champions tee it up this week as do a significant number of men who will be looking to nail the huge bounty in five weeks time at the Tour Championship. Certain players are already guaranteed a spot at Atlanta while those not yet there have three weeks to negotiate their way into the top 30.
Market Leaders
The WGC Bridgestone champion Hideki Matsuyama is the favourite this week at 11/1. He could easily have followed up that win with another in the USPGA so he is hitting the ball incredibly well. In fairness there is no reason not to like him although whether you want to be taking such a price in a field of this strength is open to debate.
Given the record that Jordan Spieth has at Augusta it would be folly not to consider him here. He added another major to his collection earlier in the year and is as good as you’ll find around and on the greens. If this course was slightly shorter I’d be all over him at 12/1 but that lack of length combined with the strength of the field leads me elsewhere.
Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler are all 16/1 to win the opening play-off event of the year. This is a big event for McIlroy who is going nowhere near Atlanta as it stands while the other two would love to go there with a win under their belts. They all look a touch short to me.
Jason Day is 18/1 to regain the title he won two years ago. That was on a different layout to this one but if anything this one may well suit him better. He has a wonderful record at Augusta and is starting to come back into form so he will be pretty popular. It is 22/1 bar those named.
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Main Bets
I like two main bets this week. None of them will come as a surprise because they all have wonderful all-round games and plenty of form at Augusta, both of which I see as important this week.
Jason Day is starting to come back to form and given how well he goes on Poa and how his scrambling is one of the best in the game when he is in form I think he merits being the main bet this week. We saw at the USPGA that he still has it in the big events. He could easily have launched a title tilt there had he not come a cropper at the 54th hole but he can make up for that with a massive run here on a course which should really suit.
Louis Oosthuizen has begun to show flashes of form recently especially at Quail Hollow where he is a joint runner-up and as a former beaten play-off golfer around Augusta he should go well here. He is one of the best putters on the Tour statistically and we know the quality of his tee to green game and his efforts around the green. I expect another sizeable showing from him here.
Outsiders
My first outsider is Marc Leishman. The Arnold Palmer Invitational winner has no weakness in his game and as we saw at Riviera earlier in the campaign he has plenty of ability on Poa greens. He can putt and scramble with the best of them and at 66/1 he looks a big price to deliver the goods here.
Brian Harman has decent numbers in bigger tournaments this year and while I would normally think this course might be too long for him those fears were dispelled at the US Open. He showed in that tournament that his scrambling and putting is really on the ball and if he can strike the ball well from tee to green there is nothing stopping this underrated player from really contending here.
My final bet is going to be on a guy who loves New York and why wouldn’t he with the raucous support he is going to get. That is Phil Mickelson and at 51 in the rankings he needs a big week here or in Boston. Mickelson is not in the best of form but his Augusta form stands up to anything and we know what sort of short game he’s got. It might be the worst bet in the world given his form but I’ve a gut feeling he has a big week in him here and at 100/1 he is priced high enough for me to act on it.
Tips
PLACED – Back J.Day to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 19.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back L.Oosthuizen to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back M.Leishman to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Ladbrokes (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back B.Harman to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back P.Mickelson to win The Northern Trust (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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