There is a whole bunch of money up for grabs on the PGA Tour this week but for those teeing it up in the Portugal Masters on the European Tour there are plenty of benefits to be won for them as well.
With the end of the season closing in those who are yet to secure their tour cards will be aiming to take a step closer to doing so and those who are safe are playing for Ryder Cup points among other things. Although there are some big weeks to come this should be competitive in its own right.
Recent Winners
2016 – Padraig Harrington
2015 – Andy Sullivan
2014 – Alex Levy
2013 – David Lynn
2012 – Shane Lowry
2011 – Tom Lewis
2010 – Richard Green
2009 – Lee Westwood
2008 – Alvaro Quiros
2007 – Steve Webster
The Course
The Victoria Golf Course is once again the venue this week as it has been ever since the tournament was created back in 2007. The course is a par 71 which measures 7,146 yards in total.
The track is quite an exposed one with wide fairways which are undulating and huge greens which don’t take much finding but they are firm and full of slopes so there is every chance that good scrambling will be needed at some point in the week. With the weather set fair we can expect the scoring to be very low once again.
The Field
With the best players in the world in America for the Tour Championship and a massive field being assembled in Newcastle next week this is not the best field we will ever see but it does contain some top talent.
Ryder Cup stars Thomas Pieters and Andy Sullivan are both here while former champions Padraig Harrington, Alvaro Quiros and Shane Lowry are in the field. Russell Knox and David Lingmerth add a touch of PGA Tour flavour to the field this week.
Market Leaders
Thomas Pieters is the 14/1 favourite to win the tournament this week and if he is on form then he could lead these a merry dance but he has flattered to deceive in his last two events so maybe this is not the week to be piling into him at a relatively cramped price. He tends to rise to the big occasion and this is not one of those with all due respect.
Shane Lowry is a former winner around here and if he performs to his best then he could easily go well again but like many at the head of the market we have not seen the best of him for a while either. It might be that a return to a venue that holds good memories brings out his best but at 16/1 it would be a risk to put faith in that.
Another former champion is the third favourite in Andy Sullivan. He was the runner up the year after he won so his form around here stands up to anything in the field which could make him popular at 20/1. His form in recent times has not lived up to his potential though so you would need the course to bring out the best in him once again.
Thorbjorn Olesen is 22/1 to land the title and you would think this course sets up brilliantly for him. If there is a little bit of wind around on this exposed track he could very much be the one to beat at a price which is acceptable in this weak field. It is 28/1 bar those named.
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Main Bets
I’m going with two main bets this week. The course sets up brilliantly for both and neither of them are afraid of going low when the need arises.
The first of those bets is George Coetzee, who showed what he is all about in the KLM last week. He ended up in a tie for third there and I fancy he will improve on that here given the extra freedom that he will get from the tee. Coetzee is a solid putter and decent around the greens. He also has the length to clear most of the danger and drive the short par four. He was third and sixth here in 2011 and 2012 and I wouldn’t be surprised if he betters that this week.
My other main bet is Ryan Fox. I don’t think too many people are in any doubt that the Kiwi will win soon and there is nothing to suggest it can’t be this week. Fox finished in the top six in France, Ireland and Scotland earlier in the year and he added another top 10 in the Swiss Alps a couple of weeks ago. With freedom off the tee and all the right statistics in his favour I think Fox is well worth a bet this week.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three outsiders this week as well. They all hit it a decent length and look overpriced for big weeks for various reasons.
I took Chris Paisley in Denmark a few weeks ago and he landed me a place and by virtue of the fact that he was in the top five here last year I think he is worthy of supporting again here. Paisley hits it a long way and is in the top 15 in scrambling this season which are two important statistics. If he can get a few putts to drop as he did 12 months ago he could be right in the mix again.
Nicolas Colsaerts shot 60 on this golf course to open up the 2015 event and while he isn’t going to shoot those numbers every week it does at least highlight his abilities to play this course well. We regularly see that he has decent form on exposed courses. He was in the top 10 in the Nordea and ran hot over the weekend in the BMW PGA to finish third. His form has dipped recently but if his putter can hot up like it did when he shot 60 he could easily add to his runner up finish of 2015.
This place will hold a special position in the heart of Justin Walters. He finished second here in 2013 when he needed a big finish to retain his tour card. That came a fortnight after his mother died. He has been in the top 25 twice here since then and given the form he showed last week when finishing in a tie for third I fully expect him to play himself right into contention again here.
Tips
Back G.Coetzee to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betbright (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back R.Fox to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back C.Paisley to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with 888sport (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back N.Colsaerts to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back J.Walters to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back them here:
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