It’s Day 1 of the biggest flat meeting of the whole year, Royal Ascot. Forget the fancy outfits, the big hats and the expensive champagne; Tuesday is all about Ribchester, Churchill and Lady Aurelia. We’ve previewed the card and have taken a few bets too hoping to start the week with a winner or 2.
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2.30: Queen Anne Stakes
A Group 1 over the straight mile to kick us off with a very warm favourite in Ribchester. There might be 16 runners but, realistically, there’s doesn’t look to be more than 2 or 3 serious challengers to the favourite.
Ribchester ticks all the boxes, having come here off the back of a convincing win in the Lockinge but he does face faster ground and a wide draw too which may not be ideal, especially as his pacemaker is drawn away in double figures. Admittedly, he could lead like he did in the Lockinge but it’s tougher to do so here on faster ground. He’s only raced on ground with firm in the description once and that was last summer in the Sussex stakes where he finished 3rd.
According to the market, Lightning Spear is his closest challenger but he was almost 4 lengths behind Ribchester in the Lockinge and, despite different conditions, he doesn’t look value at a best priced 6/1.
Of more interest and the one who will likely give the favourite most to do is Mutakayyef. The yard is in red hot form with a 27% strike rate over the last 14 days and he’s drawn well in 9. He hacked up in the Summer Mile over course and distance last July and has since twice finished 3rd in big Group 1’s behind top class Postponed and Tepin. He’s raced once this year finishing 5th at the Dubai World Cup meeting on ground that was against him, and this ground will suit much better.
There’s doesn’t appear to much to threaten from further down the market and, whilst Ribchester looks a likely winner, it’s not easy to dismiss the chances of Mutakayyef.
Tips
WON – Back Mutakayyef in the ‘w/o Ribchester market’ for a 2/10 stake at 4.50 with Paddy Power
Back it here:
3.05: Coventry Stakes
The first of the 2 year races and you normally need an unbeaten one from the front 4 or 5 in the market. Brother Bear, from the Jessica Harrington yard, fits the profile perfectly and has been impressive in 2 wins to date.
De Bruyne Horse and Murillo were both beaten on their debuts although they do have good recent form whilst the American horse, Arawak, should go well but 6 furlongs may just stretch him.
Of the longer priced horse, I wouldn’t anyone off Prince Of The Dark if the headgear helps. However, the one to take my eye the most is Charlie Hills’ Nebo who won in fine style on his debut but has been drawn in 1 which is enough to let this race pass us by.
3.40: King’s Stand Stakes
The 5 furlong cavalry charge that is the King’s Stand is next. Marsha has some cracking form in the book whilst Lady Aurelia only needs to repeat her Ascot win from last year but both are short in the market and need to be opposed.
The girls have a great record in this race, as do last time out winners and, if they’ve come here via the Temple Stakes at Haydock, all’s the better. The horse that ticks this box is Priceless from last year’s winning yard and she represents some decent each way value at 12/1.
A winner of 3 of her last 4 races, she comes here in fine fettle. She won a couple of listed races but finishing 5th in the Palace House behind Marsha 2 starts back. She took a keen hold that day and I’m prepared to forgive that run. Judged on her Temple Stakes win, she has a great shout. With a nice turn of foot and this stiff track in her favour, she should give her running and go very close. The ground is another huge positive having won both times on genuine firm ground and recording 5 of her top 6 RPRs on the 5 occasions she’s raced with firm in the going description.
Tips
Back Priceless (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
4.20: St James’s Palace Stakes
The big race on Day 1 is this, with 2000 Guineas 1st, 2nd and 4th all reopposing. Churchill is a worthy favourite having won her last 7, including 4 Group 1s on the bounce. He’s very straightforward and it’s hard to find chinks in his armour although it could be argued Barney Roy would have been closer in the Guineas but for not handling the dip at Newmarket. That said, did Churchill have more to give?
Barney Roy is a worthy 2nd favourite based on that run but 5/2 is too short a price and I think the same fate as that Newmarket run beckons. Thunder Snow needs softer ground so the bigger danger comes from 2000 Guineas 4th Lancaster Bomber. The worry is that he sets the pace again for Churchill and he’s likely to be swallowed up late on again.
I wouldn’t put anyone off backing the 1-2-3 in Churchill, Barney Roy and Lancaster Bomber but another no bet race from us.
5.00: Ascot Stakes Handicap
20 runners for this marathon and a race I’m not interested in. So many unexposed types from jumping yards make these races tough to solve so I’ll let others find the winner here.
My 3 against the field would be Beyond Conceit and the Alan King pair, Oceane and Rainbow Dreamer.
5.35: Windsor Castle Stakes
Wow, this is a tough 2 year old race to solve. O’Brien has the favourite, with Wesley Ward having the next 2 in the betting. With well over 20 runners, it’s a race to tread carefully in e but, if you must get involved, Silvestre De Sousa could make all against the rail on Another Batt.
He’s a master of his trade and he has a great draw by the rail. He loves to go from the front and his form is pretty solid having gone well over in Ireland but scooting clear at Ripon. It will be no surprise if he has the best of the ground and might be hard to peg back so I’ll have a little interest in the final race on Day 1.
Tips
Back Another Batt (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 17.00 Skybet (⅕ odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
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