It’s the start of the 3-day Grand National meeting at Aintree. Whilst most people are busy picking out their bets for the big one on Saturday, we’ve taken a look at the best bets of Day 1 where the highlight is expected to be Betway Bowl.
2.20 Aintree: Juvenile Hurdle
Preview
9 runners head to Aintree for this juvenile hurdle, with 4 of them come off the back of a run at Cheltenham, 2 in the Triumph Hurdle & 2 in the Fred Winter.
Apples Shakira was a warm favourite for the Triumph but she pulled hard & was never dangerous in finishing 7 lengths 4th to the Irish raider Farclas. She has the hood on today but there are too many question marks around this 2/1 shot; her form is on softer going & all her form has come on the Cheltenham undulations.
Of the 2 vying for favouritism, I prefer the chances of We Have A Dream who is unbeaten in 4 races in the UK. He missed Cheltenham which might be a blessing in disguise & has looked impressive in each start, with varying underfoot conditions. He’s the one I fear so will be taking him out of the equation & backing in the market without this horse.
Malaya is no forlorn hope but I’m sure she’s progressed in the quite the manner I’d have liked to see, and Nube Negra probably possesses stronger claims but I’m worried about the hard race he had at Cheltenham a few weeks back.
Betting
At a big price after taking out We Have A Dream, I am taking a chance on French raider Beau Gosse. We’ve already seen some big French winners in the last 2 weeks on the all-weather & whilst this is a different ball game altogether, it underlines the fact you cannot discount any horse making the trip across the channel.
He’s a winner of 3 of his 7 starts, 6 of those runs coming on very soft ground in France. It’s likely that a slightly better surface will suit & he encountered that in his one run in this country in the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton in February. He was 3rd, 10 lengths behind Malaya but it was a reasonably promising effort. Connections are suggesting this track will suit better & the ground might just be right up his street. He went off at 4/1 in the Adonis so seeing him at almost 3 times that after removing one of the runners looks a little on the generous side.
Tips
Back Beau Gosse in the “without We Have A Dream” market (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 12.00 Betfair Sportsbook (⅕ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
2.50 Aintree: Betway Bowl Chase
Preview
3 miles 1 furlong for the big chase of the day with Gold Cup 2nd Might Bite the odds on favourite. Admittedly, he should win but he had a really tough race 4 weeks ago & I’d rather seek out some each way value elsewhere.
Bristol De Mai has had a wind operation so could put 2 disappointing runs behind him but he’s priced on an excellent win in the Betfair Chase where the heavy ground was strongly in his favour. I struggle to figure out Definitly Red; I’ve always thought of him as a heavy ground horse but his trainer is saying otherwise so I can’t really side with him.
Betting
Double Shuffle & Tea For Two were 2nd and 3rd behind Might Bite in the King George over Christmas & it’s these 2 that hold solid each way claims. Double Shuffle hasn’t raced since then & he’s from a stable out of form so, reluctantly, I’ll pass him over.
The each way bet is last year’s winner Tea For Two. He loves a flat, fast track with his best form over fences coming here & at Kempton. He was only 3 lengths behind Might Bite at Kempton so it’s hard to fathom the 14/1 price on offer here, especially with 3 places up for grabs & only 8 going to post.
He’s run poorly on 2 starts since but that’s been at Cheltenham, a track that doesn’t suit him whatsoever. Last year, in this very race, he’s accounted for Cue Card, Bristol De Mai & Empire Of Dirt so he’s shown he can mix it with the best. He was 10/1 that day and is bigger this time around despite being rated 6lbs higher. Whilst he has something to find to turn over Might Bite, I’m not sure there’s a whole lot else to beat & he looks a cracking bet.
Tips
Back Tea For Two (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 15.00 Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
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3.25 Aintree: Aintree Hurdle
Preview
Another race where we have a short priced favourite, this time it’s the Harrington trained Supasundae & he’s a top class versatile horse that I fancy to win here. Therefore, it’s another race where I’m backing without the favourite.
I can’t see much for the 4 rags and, of the other 4, we have L’Ami Serge who always travels well through his races but never finishes off with much zest. That would be a worry on this sharp track for speedsters especially as he looks better over further. The New One is a solid yardstick but he had a hard race when stepped up in trip to the Stayers whilst My Tent Is Yours will be a danger to all if the ground dries out.
Betting
However, I like the chances of the lightly raced, improving Cyrius Darius. A horse that is best suited by a sharp track & good to soft ground, conditions look perfect. For the last 2 seasons, he’s won the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso but last year he took in the Champion Hurdle on a track he doesn’t like. His trainer has saved him for Aintree this time around & I fancy it will pay dividends.
He won on heavy ground at Kelso & it was suggested he’ll be better in the spring with better ground which he should get here. He’ll appreciate the step up in trip & looks a danger to a set of rivals that, to me, appear to have reached their ceiling of ability. With untapped potential, the 17/2 available without Supasundae looks good value.
Tips
Back Cyrius Darius in the “without Supasundae” market (e/w)for a 1/10 stake at 9.50 Bet365 (⅕ odds 1-3)
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