The final set of group matches begins at the ATP World Tour Finals on Thursday and with semi-final places on the line and a bunch of mathematical equations to solve before we get the identity of the qualifiers it is sure to be a day of drama inside the o2 Arena in London.
Among the players looking to qualify for the semi-finals is a certain Roger Federer. He will need to win to give himself the best chance but amazingly all four players can still progress in this group so there is plenty on the line.
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Afternoon Session
Jamie Murray & Bruno Soares vs Henri Kontinen & John Peers
The opening match of the day sees the already qualified Jamie Murray and Bruno Soares taking on the former champions here Henri Kontinen and John Peers who come in as alternates after the withdrawal of Mektic and Peya.
I would imagine Murray and Soares will want to win this match and go into the semi-finals with three wins from three but at the same time we regularly see how hard it is for players to get up for these matches when they know they are through. With that in mind the motivation might be for the Finn-Aussie pairing to deliver the goods here and finish their season on a high. Kontinen and Peers have won six of the last seven meetings between these two pairs and while it hasn’t been their best season they did still win the Queens final that the pairings played. The former number one pairing have won every hard court match between these two. They are the value in this one.
Dominic Thiem vs Kei Nishikori
The singles match in the afternoon session sees Dominic Thiem looking for his first win of the week when he takes on a Kei Nishikori who will be looking to put his nightmare showing in his last match behind him.
Thiem hasn’t really got going this week and he goes into this contest with a 3-1 deficit on the head to head with the Japanese star. You would think Nishikori’s confidence will have taken a right old battering after that destruction by Anderson last time out so it will be interesting to see how he plays. Interestingly these two have a history of one-sided sets. Five of their last seven sets have been 63 or easier and with both showing frailties this week I fancy whoever gets on top early could power away. With that in mind under 9.5 first set games looks good to me especially with Thiem known for slow starts.
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Evening Session
Juan Sebastian Cabal & Robert Farah vs Raven Klaasen & Michael Venus
The evening session begins with a straight knockout between the number two seeds Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah and the number seven seeded pair of Raven Klaasen and Michael Venus. The winner here extends their season while the losers are done for the year.
The rankings would suggest that the Colombian pair are the ones to beat here but I’m not entirely convinced I see it that way. They haven’t impressed me at all this week and unless they raise their game significantly they must be vulnerable here. My gut tells me Klaasen and Ram will come through this one but they are favourites and as a result there isn’t a huge amount that lures me in here so I’ll leave this one well alone.
Roger Federer vs Kevin Anderson
Depending on the result of the earlier match Roger Federer will know whether he needs to win or not. It might be that if Thiem wins in straight sets then Federer will only need a set here to qualify. Kevin Anderson definitely goes through with one set regardless of the earlier result although he’ll be through anyway if Thiem has won.
Federer looked much more assured in beating Thiem on Tuesday night but he’s going to need to up his game significantly to handle Anderson in the form the South African has shown this week. He has been very solid and is hitting the ball with authority and he’ll know he beat Federer at Wimbledon earlier in the year which will give him a further confidence boost here. Although Anderson might not need to win here he’ll want to be competitive to avoid Djokovic in the semi-finals and I think he can stay within a couple of games here.
Tips
Back H.Kontinen & J.Peers to beat J.Murray & B.Soares for a 3/10 stake at 2.40 with BetVictor
Back them here:
WON – Back D.Thiem vs K.Nishikori – Under 9.5 games first set for a 4/10 stake at 2.25 with Coral
Back it here:
Back K.Anderson (+2.5 games) to beat R.Federer for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with Boylesports
Back him here:
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