It is the penultimate event on the PGA Tour this week as the BMW Championship takes place in Philadelphia. 70 men are eligible for this tournament and come the end of the four days only the leading 30 players in the FedEx Cup rankings will progress to the Tour Championship in two weeks.
This is a big week for players outside the top 30 and also those not yet in the Ryder Cup side. Jim Furyk has one pick left which he will make after this tournament. Marc Leishman doesn’t have to worry about any of that and he defends the title this week.
Recent Winners
2017 – Marc Leishman
2016 – Dustin Johnson
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Billy Horschel
2013 – Zach Johnson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Justin Rose
2010 – Dustin Johnson
2009 – Tiger Woods
2008 – Camilo Villegas
The Course
As ever the tournament is on the move and this year it takes place on the Aronimink Golf Club in Pennsylvania. This course is staging a tournament for the first time in 2011 when it hosted the Quicken Loans National.
The course has undergone a lot of refurbishments since then with over 100 more bunkers placed on it with many of them strategically inserted into the modern landing zones so accuracy off the tee is going to be paramount especially with primary rough said to be as dense as four inches. The course is a par 70 which stretches to 7,267 yards.
The tournament is set to be played on a firm course to begin with but the longer it goes on the bigger the threat of rain and the wind is expected to be up on Sunday so that all needs to be taken into account. We have wide fairways and large greens so don’t be surprised if this turns into a putting contest.
The Field
70 men have qualified to tee it up in this tournament but Daniel Berger has declined the opportunity so we have a field of 69. It includes the current FedEx Cup leader Bryson DeShambeau who is looking to continue a clean sweep of the play-offs. Defending champion Marc Leishman is here as well as are Jim Furyk’s other two wildcard picks Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods.
Many of the leading players in the world also tee it up this week with Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka and Jason Day all here. Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood and Francesco Molinari will lead the European charge.
Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson is a 17/2 favourite to win the title this week. He backdoored a top 10 in Boston last week but didn’t look completely on top of his game. There is a battle for the world number one spot between Johnson and Brooks Koepka and if the top of the leaderboard gets away from Johnson he might focus on preserving top spot in the world rankings. He isn’t for me this week anyway but at this price he most certainly isn’t.
Justin Rose ended up finishing lower than he would have liked last week but he was second in The Open six weeks ago so it isn’t like he is not in form. He is one of a trio of players on 14/1 this week with Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka the other two. Koepka never really convinces me away from the majors so I feel he is a little short while Rose’s putter always concerns me. Apart from the price there is a lot to like about Justin Thomas in fairness.
Rory McIlroy gave himself a chance to win around TPC Boston last week but the fact he couldn’t push on and get it done on a course he had previously won twice around is a concern for anyone thinking of taking him at 16/1. Bryson DeChambeau is the form man but it is hard enough to win two tournaments in as many weeks let alone a third.
Jordan Spieth comes next in the betting at 20/1 and if this does turn into a putting contest you probably wouldn’t want too many others on your side ahead of him even allowing for the fact we’ve seen nothing like his best for much of 2018. Class always comes to the fore at this time of year though so do not be surprised if Spieth comes good in a big way this week.
[the_ad_group id=”3624″]
Main Bets
Jason Day might not be the cleanest striker of the ball in the field this week but he certainly isn’t a bad one and the wider fairways should help him. From there I think he is going to go very well. He is one of the best putters on the PGA Tour and if he misses any of these large greens then we know he can get up and down. This feels like a course where the skill set of Day can come to the fore particularly if he can drive the ball well.
Tommy Fleetwood is another who has the all-round game to contend around here. We’ve seen him deliver the goods in the majors this year where strategic thinking and positioning off the tee has been paramount and this is the sort of level I expect him to do much of his contending in. Fleetwood needs a big week to make it to Atlanta and he is a nice enough price to take to get it too.
Outsiders
Brandt Snedeker tore up the Wyndham Championship three weeks ago and he is worth taking to go well here on a course designed by the same man. The one thing I think we are going to need here is a good putter and Snedeker definitely ticks that box. He is also a good ball striker who hits plenty of fairways and greens so in many ways this track should suit him perfectly. If the winds do get up on Sunday he won’t be found wanting so he looks a solid bet this weekend.
CT Pan was runner up to Snedeker at the Wyndham and he comes in here off the back of a good couple of weeks. I think last week’s form might be more significant than normal this week given that there has only been three days between events. Pan has been showing signs that he is established at this level and ready to really challenge for one of these tournaments. The short turnaround and a layout which is new to do many will negate any advantages others have on him so this could be the week he goes in.
Ian Poulter received the ultimate morale boost on Wednesday when he was confirmed as a member of Thomas Bjorn’s Ryder Cup team and he can ride that high on a track that looks to suit. He enjoys a strategic test and we know there aren’t many better putters in the game than him when he is on song. I think he’s a bigger price than he should be this week. I’ll take a chance that he rides the wave of positivity.
Tips
Back J.Day to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back T.Fleetwood to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back I.Poulter to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
Back B.Snedeker to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back CT.Pan to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Coral (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2018
