The European Tour stage their flagship event this week as the Rolex Series begins with the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. Golf and music combine this week on a wonderful golf course and with the weather set fair for the week we should be treated to some decent action.
Alex Noren came from the clouds to win the tournament last year and he is back to attempt to defend his title but as ever with this event a seriously packed field tee up in opposition to him.
Recent Winners
2017 – Alex Noren
2016 – Chris Wood
2015 – Byeong-Hun An
2014 – Rory McIlroy
2013 – Matteo Manassero
2012 – Luke Donald
2011 – Luke Donald
2010 – Simon Khan
2009 – Paul Casey
2008 – Miguel Angel Jimenez
The Course
Once again we are at the West Course at Wentworth this week. After renovations of recent years the course should be in the best shape it has ever been in. It is a par 72 which stretches just over 7,300 yards and is treelined in most places. You have to drive the ball well at Wentworth and as we’ve seen in the last few years if you have a bit of length it is an advantage for sure.
Last year the leading players were all high up in the scrambling statistics and with the sub air systems making the greens firm I would imagine scrambling will be key again this week. Greens in regulation is another key requirement while in any big event you have to putt well. That is no different here.
The Field
Some of the pick of Europe have remained in America this week which is fair enough but we have two members of the world’s top 10 teeing it up here in Rory McIlroy and Paul Casey while some players who we may well be seeing in France in September are here too not least Tommy Fleetwood, Ian Poulter and the defending champion Alex Noren.
Some leading names from Britain and Ireland tee it up in Tyrrell Hatton, Shane Lowry, Paul Dunne and Matthew Fitzpatrick while the pick of European golf are here too in the form of Francesco Molinari, Rafael Cabrera Bello and Alex Levy. Former winner Byeong-Hun An and the classy Branden Grace bring plenty to the field.
Market Leaders
It is the 2014 winner Rory McIlroy who heads the betting this week at 17/2. This is not a bad field at all but even then if McIlroy is on top form he could blow these away. That said he doesn’t look like he’s on top form and even though he has an excellent record when he comes back to Europe the field is too strong to be backing him at single figures when he isn’t firing on all cylinders. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins but the value is elsewhere.
There are a group of players on 14/1 and they include the English pair of Tommy Fleetwood and Paul Casey. Casey is a former winner around here but he looks to have just come off the top edge of his form since he won the Valspar although having won twice at Wentworth he should be confident this week and might want to make his mark on his return to the European Tour. He’s a little short for me as is Fleetwood although I readily accept he’s a class act. The defending champion Alex Noren is also 14/1 but defending a title of this magnitude doesn’t happen very often which puts me off.
Branden Grace flew home in the Byron Nelson last week to finish third and he goes into this tournament as a 16/1 shot. The long journey is a primary concern here but he can scramble with the best of them and if he can overcome any jet lag he has every chance here but there isn’t a lot in the price to like in all fairness.
Francesco Molinari was the nearest challenger to Alex Noren here last year and given how far Noren came from in the final round the Italian might be annoyed that he didn’t win this thing. He is 22/1 to go one better this year but he doesn’t look to be striking the ball anywhere near as clean now as he was then. He’s an easy swerve in truth. It is 30/1 bar those named.
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Main Bets
After a win and three places last week I’m going to allow myself three main bets this week. The first two are the Irish pair of Shane Lowry and Paul Dunne. Lowry must wonder how he has never won this tournament. He has four top six finishes around this track and while his results in America this year haven’t been fantastic the only thing that has denied him some big weekends has been his putter. Having finished so close here four times he clearly knows these greens and usually when players used to European conditions struggle in America they fly again in Europe. I’m expecting Lowry to do just that and on a course he loves I’ll take the chance that his short stick hots up this week.
Dunne is looking for an English tournament treble having won the British Masters last year and the Golf Sixes earlier this month. More importantly he was second in Spain last month where he went toe to toe with Jon Rahm on the final day so we know he isn’t daunted by big challenges. Dunne is one of the best scramblers around and his putting and iron play is usually sharp. If he has a solid week off the tee he is entitled to go very well here.
Not many players head to Wentworth in better form than Alex Levy right now. He missed the cut in The Players Championship last time out but before than he has been in contention in nearly every event he has entered and won the China Open. His all-round game has been excellent in recent times with his iron play particularly eye catching. He was fourth in the British Masters at The Grove and has top 20s around here and Woburn and with the sun at his back this week the Frenchman could rubber stamp his place on Thomas Bjorn’s team with the dubya here.
Outsiders
I’m going to go with three outsiders this week too, two of which are big prices and gut feels as much as anything else. The one who is more than a gut feel is Mike Lorenzo-Vera who I’ve backed a few times in the last 12-18 months. I dodged a bullet when he lost the playoff in the Rocco Forte Open when I wasn’t on a couple of weeks ago and he was a quarter finalist in Belgium last week which highlighted how well he is hitting the ball. This track should be right up the street of the Frenchman who ticks nearly every box statistically especially on and around the greens. He’s no slouch off the tee either so I’m expecting another big week from him.
Nacho Elvira has numbers which caught my eye and his length off the tee is certainly no bad thing. He was third in the Open de Espana where his putter caught fire and it has been hot since then which is important because his long game has been in good order for much of the season. If the stars align and all elements of his game come together as one he could well contend here. This one is a gut feel but I’ll pay to see how he goes.
There have been signs in recent weeks that Mikko Ilonen is beginning to find his best game again and that is certainly good to see. He was third in the Trophee Hassan II recently where he was the best putter in the field and statistically seventh best that week. His putting is one of the best on the European Tour but with him finding form with his long game he may well get getting ready to contend again. A tournament of this size might be too big for him at the present time but I’ll pay to find out.
Tips
Back S.Lowry to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back P.Dunne to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Levy to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Lorenzo-Vera to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-8)
Back N.Elvira to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back M.Ilonen to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with 888sport (1/4 1-6)
Back him here:
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