The second tournament in the Desert Swing takes place on the European Tour this week when the Dubai Desert Classic is played out. This is always a popular stop on the circuit and despite a huge event in the United States going up alongside it a decent field has been assembled.
Sergio Garcia landed the title 12 months ago on his way to a brilliant win at The Masters and many teeing it up this week will be looking to emulate him. The Spaniard faces a tough challenge to hold on to his title.
Recent Winners
2017 – Sergio Garcia
2016 – Danny Willett
2015 – Rory McIlroy
2014 – Stephen Gallacher
2013 – Stephen Gallacher
2012 – Rafa Cabrera Bello
2011 – Alvaro Quiros
2010 – Miguel Angel Jimenez
2009 – Rory McIlroy
2008 – Tiger Woods
The Course
Emirates Golf Club is the venue for this tournament as ever. It has staged the event ever since it was formed in 1989 apart from a couple of years when renovations sent the tournament elsewhere.
The course itself is a par 72 which measures 7,328 yards. The recipe for success around here recently has been hitting greens in the right number and taking care of the par 4s. The course is always firm here so you don’t need to be the longest hitters to get around. Given how firm it is you either need players going into the greens with short irons or from the fairways where spin control is possible.
This is a slightly exposed track so the wind will be an issue so it might be wise to favour those who can perform in the wind when making your final selections.
The Field
The attention of the golfing world might be on Torrey Pines this week but the media would do well not to ignore this tournament as there are some stellar stars on show not least Rory McIlroy. Masters champion Sergio Garcia tees it up as does last week’s winner and European number one Tommy Fleetwood.
A good mix of European and international stars are here this week. Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, Ross Fisher and Henrik Stenson are likely to lead the European charge while Louis Oosthuizen, Branden Grace, Pat Perez and Dylan Frittelli lead the international cause.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is unsurprisingly the favourite to win the tournament this week. He is 9/2 to win the title for a third time and off the back of a solid return last week you would think he is nicely tuned up for a big assault on this tournament. That said his price is pretty short when you consider the quality of player teeing it up so that puts me off.
Speaking of quality the defending champion Sergio Garcia is the second favourite to keep hold of the title. He is 9/1 to retain the title. Although it happened last week it is rare to see a title retained and just as rare to see a player win in back to back weeks which having won in Singapore last week Garcia will be looking to do. History puts me off him.
Henrik Stenson and Tommy Fleetwood are the 12/1 third favourites. Aside from winning big events back to back which is rare, there isn’t a lot to not like about Fleetwood. Stenson finished well last week and now has six successive top 10 finishes when teeing it up in the UAE. If 12/1 is your thing these two look to have every chance. It is 18/1 bar.
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Main Bets
I’m going with a couple of main bets this week. The first is on Matthew Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick wasn’t bang on his game in Abu Dhabi last week but he still managed to finish third which was remarkably his tenth successive top 20 finish worldwide. He was fifth here last year and must like Dubai because he has an excellent record in the DP Dubai World Tour Championship. Fitzpatrick was second in the putting stats last week and if he tightens up into the greens which is usually a strength of his then he’ll go very close.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat ticks a lot of boxes this week too. He arrives here with 10 top 25 finishes in his last 11 tournaments with the exception being the difficult Nedbank Challenge. He was loose into the greens last week which was a surprise as he has been strong in that area but his scrambling and his putting kept him going deep into Sunday. He was second in the other Dubai tournament at the end of last season so if he can tighten up the irons he should run well here.
Outsiders
Andrew Johnston began his season with a solid effort in Abu Dhabi last week where he was tenth in the all-round ranking which includes being fourth in hitting greens. It was his putter that let him down especially on the final day but if he needed the run we can expect him to perform well this week. He was pretty strong in his interviews that he wants his golf to do the talking this year and if he focuses on his game he is one of the best in Europe. Few men hit more greens than him when he is playing well so if he can get the putts to drop he’ll run well.
Richie Ramsay is another with excellent tee to green stats going into this tournament and as such I will pay to see if he can find the hole on what are usually good greens to putt on. Putting has been his only real issue in recent times but with a different tournament in each continent for a while acclimatising could be the reason for that. Ramsay was second in greens hit last week and in the other Dubai tournament at the end of last season so if a week of putting on similar greens has sorted his stroke out I expect him to have every chance here.
My final bet is going to be Mike Lorenzo-Vera who is another who has an excellent tee to green game. He is an underrated putter too and we’ve seen in previous events that he isn’t too disadvantaged when the wind blows. He probably needed the run in Abu Dhabi last week but got four good rounds in and if he kicks on again he can go close here at a big price.
Tips
Back M.Fitzpatrick to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 19.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back K.Aphibarnrat to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back A.Johnston to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back R.Ramsay to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Unibet (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back M.Lorenzo-Vera to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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