The first round of the Italian Open takes place in Brescia on Thursday and with this being a Rolex Series event there is a real emphasis on a fast start as the entire field chase the big cash and the other rewards that getting into a good position could bring later in the week.
As with the first day of most tournaments these days we have a number of markets to get stuck into and with Sky doing the business on the coverage front we should get to see a good deal of it play out too.
First Round Leader
The first market to look at is the first round leader market where unlike last week we might be able to whittle the field down a little. That is because there is a morning start and an afternoon one so we can look at the conditions and see which half of the draw to target.
Wind is not expected to be a factor over the course of the day but the rain is due to intensify towards the end of the morning so it might be that the course is even more scorable during the afternoon. With that in mind I’m going to look for afternoon players who give it a good lick off the tee and who make a lot of birdies.
That brings into play the likes of Sam Horsfield, Nicolas Colsaerts, George Coetzee and Thorbjorn Olesen and it is the latter I’m prepared to play at a massive price. Generally when Olesen is playing well his iron play is the strength of his game and with the soft course likely to keep him in play off the tee we might see something special from the Dane to open up here. This is a course which should suit him now and although four decent rounds could be beyond him a fast start certainly isn’t.
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Thursday 3 Balls
As with most tournaments almost every group onto the golf course is priced up on the opening day. The field are going out in threes across two tees with the headline grouping of Francesco Molinari, Thomas Pieters and Ross Fisher out at 07.40 BST while in the afternoon Matteo Manassero, Tyrrell Harron and Rafa Cabrera Bello head off on their way at 12.30 BST. There are some tasty groups either side of those for the crowds and the TV spectators to enjoy and we’re going with bets in two of them.
Danny Willett/Martin Kaymer/Renato Paratore
Match tees off at 07.50 BST
One of the more appealing groups on the opening day of the tournament is the one which sees two major champions out alongside one of the home hopefuls when Danny Willett, Martin Kaymer and Renato Paratore head off the tenth tee.
The form of both Danny Willett and Martin Kaymer has been well documented and it would be a surprise if either shoot anything significant in this opening round. The form of Paratore has been equally as bad this year but he’ll have played these courses before and with rounds of 68 and 70 to open the last two renewals of this we know he gets inspired playing at home. Anything in that ball park could be enough to take this group so he’s my first bet.
Soren Kjeldsen/Brett Rumford/Dean Burmester
Match tees off at 11.30 BST
The opening group off the first hole in the afternoon sees regular tournament winners Soren Kjeldsen and Brett Rumford out alongside Dean Burmester in a group which will probably go under the radar for much of the day but not with us.
Kjeldsen’s form has completely gone for some strange reason with his struggles into and on the greens being a concern while Rumford is a good putter but his tee to green game leaves a little to be desired. I think both could be overpowered by Burmester at any rate. The South African is one of the longest on the European Tour and having started with a 66 last week we know he can ping the lids. If the forecast is correct the course could be playing very long by the time this group gets onto the first tee. That should benefit the South African so my cash is on him.
Tips
Back T.Olesen First Round Leader (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back R.Paratore to beat D.Willett & M.Kaymer for a 3/10 stake at 3.25 with Ladbrokes
Back him here:
DEAD HEAT – Back D.Burmester to beat S.Kjeldsen & B.Rumford for a 3/10 stake at 2.50 with 888sport
Back him here:
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