With the Ryder Cup ready to begin on Friday we have a chance to have a look at two of the more popular markets heading into the big week which is the top team point scorer markets. We’ll cover the visitors in another post later on and focus on the European team here.
12 men will tee it up for Europe at various points this weekend each looking to secure as many points as they can and I would wager this will be quite a competitive market because there are a number of combinations for Thomas Bjorn to utilise.
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Favourites
Rory McIlroy and Justin Rose are the 11/2 joint favourites to lead the European point scoring this week. I’ve never really thought this is a course that would suit McIlroy but on the plus side he is almost certain to play five matches. Rose is too and this course does suit him. The question would be whether these two would play together at any point in time. If they do and they keep winning they will be hard to beat.
Tommy Fleetwood and Jon Rahm are the joint third favourites at 8/1. Fleetwood is a former winner around here while Rahm ran pretty hot when the Open de France was staged here earlier in the year despite the course not necessarily playing to his strengths. Whether the Spaniard is hitting the ball as well now as he was then is open to debate. There isn’t a lot to dislike about Fleetwood and he’s the sort of player who could partner a number of players which is no bad thing.
Contenders
The Open champion Francesco Molinari is 9/1 to be the top European this week. He has gone on record as saying that this is his favourite golf course on the European Tour which is definitely no bad thing. He is a perfect partner in pairs play and he’ll more than hold his own in singles action around here too so there is a lot to like.
Ian Poulter will most likely be confident around the 11/1 mark. We all remember his performance in 2012 and he has delivered the goods in a number of other Ryder Cups. If this tournament was four months ago he would have been playing the best golf of his career but he’s come slightly off the edge since then. That said his status in the team is sure to give him plenty of good partners so he shouldn’t be ruled out.
Henrik Stenson is most likely to continue his strong partnership with Justin Rose and if that doesn’t work out to plan then Alex Noren will be a handy second partner for the Swede so he shouldn’t be ruled out at 13/1 either. He has been nursing an injury in recent times though so if you take him you should be aware he may not play the full five rounds, indeed it is highly likely that he won’t.
Outsiders
Sergio Garcia is a controversial pick for this competition so he will be out to reward Captain Bjorn with some points. I suspect he was picked more for his contribution to the team room though so he is another one who I wouldn’t expect to play five matches. Jon Rahm is a potential partner for Sergio but the potential lack of game time is a worry.
Alex Noren looks the ideal man to me in that he can play his own ball well around here as he showed earlier in the year when he won here and he keeps it in play in alternate shot but there are some big names who I fear will get more game time ahead of him, especially with only Henrik Stenson and maybe Thorbjorn Olesen as potential partners. 16/1 might be a little short on that basis. Paul Casey is unlikely to play all five rounds either at 16/1.
Tyrrell Hatton and Thorbjorn Olesen are the rank outsiders at 28/1 and 33/1 respectively. It is hard to see either man playing all five rounds which is a big concern while the course doesn’t really suit the Dane very much. I’m prepared to leave both out of the equation.
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Profile
I always think you need a strategy in these sorts of markets and the first thing that benefits is picking someone likely to play the five matches. It doesn’t always ring true that the winner plays all five but it makes sense that the more points a player goes for the better his chances are. If you go for someone who might not play five it is imperative they win their singles match as that is where ties and things from the same pairings can be separated.
If you can get a look at historical pairings that could also pave the way for something. I would imagine at some point, most likely on Friday morning, we will see Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson out alongside each other while Jon Rahm and Sergio Garcia could be a natural pairing too.
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Betting
As The Open champion and a man absolutely ideally suited to this golf course I think there is more than half a chance that Francesco Molinari will play a significant amount of the matches. He is hitting the ball as well as ever and is as passionate on the team as anyone.
In the past Molinari has played an understated role in the European team but his status has elevated to the point that he should be one of the first picks in all four paired sessions and he will be given a good slot in the Sunday singles. Around here I’d back him to take on any American and come out on top so the 9/1 on Molinari looks worthy of support.
Tips
WON – Back F.Molinari Top European Point Scorer (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 10.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-3)
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