Just 11 days after Justin Rose was crowned the FedEx Cup champion another PGA Tour season gets underway when the Safeway Open begins the 2018-19 campaign out in California. This is the regular opening stop for the Tour these days and usually provides some decent golf to enjoy.
Brendan Steele won the title for the second consecutive time 12 months ago and he is here looking for the hat trick of successes but a stronger field than usual will be teeing it up in opposition to him this week.
Recent Winners
2017 – Brendan Steele
2016 – Brendan Steele
2015 – Emiliano Grillo
2014 – Sangmoon Bae
2013 – Jimmy Walker
2012 – Jonas Blixt
2011 – Bryce Molder
2010 – Rocco Mediate
2009 – Troy Matteson
2008 – Cameron Beckman
The Course
It is the North Course at the Silverado Spa and Resort which will host the tournament again this year. The layout should be the same as 12 months ago with the course still measuring 7,166 yards and having a par of 72 strokes.
We ended last season with some ball striking paradises and that is what we begin this season with. You have to hit fairways and greens around here although the leading putters all finished pretty high up over the last couple of years too. Scoring on the par 5s is essential and they are all there to be attacked.
The Field
You don’t usually see genuine PGA Tour winners such as Brandt Snedeker and Phil Mickelson making their way to these early season events, although Mickelson is actually a regular at this stop. Patrick Cantlay gets his season underway this week too so there is a stronger look to the field.
Defending champion Brendan Steele and former winner Emiliano Grillo are also in the field this week while Chilean star Joaquin Niemann and Canadian player Adam Hadwin are here too. Most of the graduates from the Web.com Tour will tee it up this week too.
Market Leaders
Patrick Cantlay is the favourite to win the tournament and when you consider he was teeing it up around East Lake two weeks ago he sets a decent enough standard but he is plenty short enough at 12/1. Maybe in previous years he could be justified at this price but I’m not sure I can get involved given the shortness of his price especially with the struggles he has had on the greens in recent times.
Brandt Snedeker is a 22/1 poke to win the tournament and given that it was only six weeks ago that he was winning the Wyndham Championship you would have to suggest that he offers eminently better value than the market leader. There aren’t too many reasons to avoid him other than whether he needs the run after a few weeks off.
On the best prices there are a trio of players who are 25/1 this week. Former champion Emiliano Grillo is one of them while Joaquin Niemann is another. Ryan Moore completes the trio. I’m not so sure this is a place where the Chilean is guaranteed to shine but I see no reason why the other two won’t go very close although perhaps Moore’s occasionally suspect putting will be a concern.
Phil Mickelson is 28/1 to win the tournament. He will have to up his game alarmingly on last week to even be competitive here let alone think of winning this thing. I’m completely against players who played in the Ryder Cup this week and I’m not making an exception for the man who was the worst on show last week. He’s an easy swerve.
[the_ad_group id=”3624″]
Main Bets
I was on Emiliano Grillo when he won around here and I’m going to be on him again. He showed in the play-offs last season that he is hitting the ball well when he was in the top 10 at TPC Boston. He is a clinical ball striker but actually his putting has improved tenfold since he won this tournament three years ago. I fancy the Argentine to come smoking out of the traps this week.
Good putters fare well around here and you’ll go a fair distance before you find one as good as Russell Henley. He can be streaky from tee to green but if he can have even a solid week in that department without necessarily being spectacular then his work around and on the greens should see him skip past a few. Henley knows how to win when he’s in contention and he’s a stupid price at 50/1 around here. I’ll play and see how well he goes.
Outsiders
Lucas Glover has always been one of the best players in America from tee to green and nothing has changed in that regard but he doesn’t always do it on the greens. He should have received a huge confidence boost on the dancefloors in the Web.com Tour Championship though where he opened up with a pair of 64s in coming second in that tournament. That event has a good history in this one and if Glover has kept his putter hot then he can ball strike his way into a very good position come Sunday.
I flagged up the Hunter Mahan revival a fair bit last season and now that he has been to the Web.com Tour finals and got his PGA Tour card for the year he can relax and build his way back to the top. This is a perfect track for him to start on. He’s solid from tee to green and he has found his touch on the greens again. I would not be surprised if Mahan goes in at some point this season but it will be early doors before the bombers’ tracks come along. He’s a big price this week.
Anders Albertson finished the Web.com Tour season fifth in putting which is massive and his form in the Finals was excellent. He notched a pair of top 10s and was the overall scoring leader on the Tour. He won a tournament in the middle of the campaign so he has had the perfect grounding for a real tilt at the PGA Tour this year. We saw the likes of Andrew Landry graduate last season and win while in past years Patton Kizzire, Smylie Kaufman and Emiliano Grillo have come from the second tier to have big early impacts on the Tour. Albertson can be the latest.
Tips
Back E.Grillo to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 23.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back R.Henley to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back L.Glover to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back H.Mahan to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Unibet (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back A.Albertson to win Safeway Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2018
