2018 The Open Golf – Tournament Outright Betting Preview

The third major of the year takes place this week when the stars of golf head to Scotland for The Open. The tournament this year is played on what is generally seen as the toughest course on the rotation – Carnoustie.

Jordan Spieth won the event at Royal Birkdale 12 months ago and he’ll be looking to retain the title but he faces a huge challenge with the game of golf in good order and so many great players opposing him.

Recent Winners

2017 – Jordan Spieth

2016 – Henrik Stenson

2015 – Zach Johnson

2014 – Rory McIlroy

2013 – Phil Mickelson

2012 – Ernie Els

2011 – Darren Clarke

2010 – Louis Oosthuizen

2009 – Stewart Cink

2008 – Padraig Harrington

The Course

The tournament will be played at Carnoustie for the first time in 2007 when Padraig Harrington edged out Sergio Garcia in a playoff. This is seen as the hardest course on the rotation and is a par 71 which measures 7,402 yards hence the difficulty.

While this is seen as one of the toughest courses on the schedule it is also described as one of the fairest links courses with a lack of undulations on it. The fairways are quite flat as are the greens. The course has two defences, the number of bunkers lining the fairways and surrounding the greens and the wind, although that is not expected to blow until the weekend.

This is seen as a ball strikers course, even more so this week as the fairways are rock hard after amazing recent weather. There has been talk of drives over 450 yards in practice rounds such is the firmness of the fairways. With that in mind I’m after straight drivers and as ever in links golf I want good scramblers as it is impossible to stay out of trouble all week.

The Field

This is as strong a field for The Open as I can remember in a good while and one of the reasons for that is Tiger Woods is in the field. All of the leading players in the game are teeing it up this week such as Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler and Rory McIlroy.

Brooks Koepka and Patrick Reed are both here looking for a second major of the year while the likes of Jason Day, Jon Rahm, Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson are all looking for big performances. The last champion here is back for more too with Padraig Harrington teeing it up. Tyrrell Hatton, Russell Knox and last week’s winner Brandon Stone are here, as is Alex Noren and Sergio Garcia among others.

Market Leaders

Dustin Johnson is a 12/1 favourite to win the tournament this week and if he arrives with his putter working as it can then there is no reason why he will not walk away with the title. He won’t need to hit many, if any, drivers so he shouldn’t be too far from the centre of the fairways. He has a decent enough short game and everything is in front of him on this course so unless he hits bad luck with the draw I firmly believe he’s the one to beat.

Justin Rose is the second favourite at 16/1. If he is to win this tournament then this week might be his best chance because by and large his links form is ordinary to say the least. He’s in good form but even allowing for that there still needs to be a leap of faith that he will putt well enough to win the tournament. I’m unconvinced.

Rickie Fowler is the third favourite. He is 18/1 to win the tournament but I didn’t like the way he stalled last week and while he ticks one box in that he embraces and enjoys the challenge of links golf I’m just not sure he is consistent enough to get the job done here. Rory McIlroy is next at 20/1 but this course is too firm for him.

Tommy Fleetwood holds the course record here and at 22/1 he will be popular. It should be said that the course was playing much softer back in the Dunhill Links when he broke the course record and with the amateurs in that event the pin positions will have been on the easy side so while he is respected on ability his course record probably doesn’t have as much impact here. It is 25/1 bar.

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Main Bets

I’m going with two main bets this week with the first of them being a player I’ve been keen on for this for quite some time in Alex Noren. He probably hasn’t contended the majors as well as a man of his class should have done but he had a good run in The Open last year and looks primed for a decent assault on this title. He arrives here having won in France earlier in the month and this is right up his street. He is solid off the tee and has a wonderful short game. If and when the wind blows he won’t be inconvenienced at all and at 28/1 he looks a good bet.

I also can’t ignore the man of the moment in Francesco Molinari. I won’t lie and say it isn’t a concern that his record in links golf isn’t the best, it is a concern, but at the same time he has never been in the form he is currently in and he won’t have come across a links course that is as firm as this which should play into his hands. We know Molinari will rarely miss a fairway and the extra roll on the fairway will move him into better positions to strike. This season his scrambling and putting has improved beyond belief to the extend he has won or come second in four of his last five events. He’s as hot as the weather coming in here and looks massively overpriced at 33/1.

Outsiders

I’m going to go with four outsiders for the tournament with the first of those on Thomas Pieters who looks to have conditions that will suit for a big week that he needs if he is going to make it into the Ryder Cup team. Pieters won’t be hitting many drivers on this course with the firmness of it and we’ve seen in the past how he has a wonderful short game. His length when he does lean on something with a head cover should get him close to a lot of these greens so if he has a good week with the shorter clubs he can build on an excellent weekend at Gullane last week.

While I admit we need to take a bit of a leap of faith that all is well with the body of Louis Oosthuizen if it is then he has the credentials for a big week too. He is a former winner of this tournament and almost won it a second time three years ago when losing in a playoff. Generally his record in the majors is good and with someone as solid off the tee as he is and creative around the greens like he is if his body holds up he has an excellent chance of outperforming his odds.

Emiliano Grillo is another one who should enjoy the test this week. He is a very good driver of the golf ball and he has shown when on the European Tour and in events like the Houston Open, OHL Classic, the Olympics and even the Players that he has good ability in the wind. He was inside the top 15 at Troon and has a better short game now so I think he can run well at a massively inflated price.

Anirban Lahiri is ready to go well in an event like this and I think this could be the course to bring out his best. Lahiri is generally pretty decent off the tee and having won the Indian Open a couple of times we know he can strategize his way around a golf course. Short game is going to be a massive thing this week and Lahiri outshines most in that department of the game and had it not been for a poor final round at the Greenbrier he would be coming in here with three successive top 15 finishes. I think he’s a massive price.

Tips

Back A.Noren to win The Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-10)

Back him here:

Back T.Pieters to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)

Back A.Lahiri to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)

Back them here:

Back E.Grillo to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Coral (1/5 1-10)

Back him here:

WON – Back F.Molinari to win The Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)

Back L.Oosthuizen to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)

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