The PGA Tour heads back to Texas this week for one of the more popular stop offs, the Valero Texas Open. We are entering the time where people begin to think about the Players and the majors which follow it and as such a competitive field has been assembled for this one.
That was the case last year too when Kevin Chappell proved too good for the rest to land what is so far his only Tour title. He will attempt to successfully defend the title against a pretty decent field.
Recent Winners
2017 – Kevin Chappell
2016 – Charley Hoffman
2015 – Jimmy Walker
2014 – Steven Bowditch
2013 – Martin Laird
2012 – Ben Curtis
2011 – Brendan Steele
2010 – Adam Scott
2009 – Zach Johnson
2008 – Zach Johnson
The Course
We are at TPC San Antonio this week as we have been since 2010. This is one of the tougher courses used on the PGA Tour and as such the scoring tends to be fairly low. The greens here are among the hardest to hit and they are sloped so even when they are hit someone needs to be putting well to get the job done.
At a par 72 which can stretch to 7,435 yards this is a course where a bit of length is no bad thing but the more important thing is striking the ball well with the second shots. The other thing to note is we are in Texas so the wind is definitely going to be in play throughout the week. A look at former winners here show us good ball strikers who can get hot with the putter.
The Field
The field is basically made up of a load of Texas regulars this week and while the truly big names, Sergio Garcia aside, are missing there are a whole host of players who will be eyeing up a victory this week.
Matt Kuchar and Charley Hoffman are chief among them while many people believe that Luke List is a winner in waiting. Adam Scott, Kevin Chappell, Brendan Steele, Jimmy Walker and Zach Johnson are just some of the former winners who are teeing it up this week.
Market Leaders
Sergio Garcia had a hand in the design of this course but he has not played the tournament since the first time it was held at TPC San Antonio. He now has Texas ties with his wife being from the state so he should be motivated to go well but there is plenty going on for Garcia at the minute. He is a new father and the last time we saw him on the golf course he dumped five balls into a lake. He fits this course but he’s a little short for me.
Another man who is too short for me is Matt Kuchar. He is 20/1 and to be fair he should win this tournament every year but he doesn’t. In fact he doesn’t win any tournament as often as he should do and his current form isn’t the best. He’s easy to swerve unlike the other man on the 20/1 price, former champion and TPC San Antonio specialist Charley Hoffman. Hoffman has a great record around here and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if he goes in again but his game doesn’t look bang on which is just enough to put me off.
Luke List has done everything but win in recent weeks and he is 22/1 to finally get over the line this week. In truth I would need to see him win before I can have any faith in him to do so and at 22/1 any value that was in him has well and truly gone so I’ll pass him on.
Ryan Moore and Kevin Chappell are both 28/1 this week. I’m no backer of defending champions least of all those who defend titles for the first time so that rules Chappell out while Moore doesn’t strike me as a good enough putter to get it done around here. It is 30/1 bar.
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Main Bets
I’m going with a couple of main bets this week with Billy Horschel being my first one. He has been putting ball striking clinics together for so long now but has not been able to get the ball into the hole. He seemed to find something on the greens last week and that could not be timed any better. Horschel has three top four finishes here in the last five years so we know he gets on well with these greens. Assuming that putter stays hot then with the classy ball striking that is his forte the American is a massive runner. Horschel won in Texas last year when he took down the Byron Nelson and I think he can be a Texan champion again.
Chesson Hadley has done literally everything but win this season. He has countless top 10 finishes and is one of the best ball strikers on the tour. His game is that good that he ranks 11th in all-around statistics on the Tour and only one man ahead of him on that list tees it up this week. Hadley was fourth here in 2015 and he has all the credentials to go better here. At 40/1 he looks a great each way bet.
Outsiders
Bill Haas finished in the top 10 last week as his all-round game finally returned and I fancy him to go well this week. We know he will go well in the wind and when his putting boots are on there aren’t many courses that don’t suit him. Haas has a decent enough record in Texas and with the platform of last week to build on there is no reason why he can’t enhance that record.
Abraham Ancer has shown some positive signs recently. He was inside the top 10 in Houston a few weeks ago and has put three successive top 20s together now. In each of those events he has been in the top 20 for greens hit and he has held his own in the putting statistics too. Ancer had a top 10 in Mexico so he can handle the windy conditions and with Texan roots I think he’s a runner at a three figure price.
Michael Thompson hasn’t featured on many leaderboards in recent times but statistically at least there is no reason why he can’t run hot this week. He is fourth of those in this field at finding greens in the last three months but hasn’t holed anything. He was in the top 10 in putting average last week though which suggests his short game is coming good. If it does he might just make the frame at a big price.
Tips
Back B.Horschel to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Ancer to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back M.Thompson to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back C.Hadley to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back B.Haas to win Valero Texas Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 61.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
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