The final event of the Home Nations series for this season begins on Monday when the 128 players on the tour and some invited amateurs head down to Cardiff for the Welsh Open. This has always been a big tournament but with a couple of key seedings cut offs on the horizon the importance is real here.
Stuart Bingham will attempt to defend the title he won last year but he faces a challenge from the very best in the game in what is usually a tough tournament to come out on top in.
Recent Winners
2017 – Stuart Bingham
2016 – Ronnie O’Sullivan
2015 – John Higgins
2014 – Ronnie O’Sullivan
2013 – Stephen Maguire
2012 – Ding Junhui
2011 – John Higgins
2010 – John Higgins
2009 – Stephen Maguire
2008 – Mark Selby
The Format
The Home Nations format needs no explanation to snooker regulars but for newcomers to snooker the first round right through to the last 16 is played over the best of seven with the third and fourth rounds played on the same day on Thursday. The quarter finals on Friday are the best of nine frames with the best of 11 in the semi-finals on Saturday. The tournament is then decided over two sessions and the best of 17 frames on Sunday.
Top Quarter
As the defending champion it is Stuart Bingham who is the top seed this week and that means he is in the top quarter. The other top 16 players in this quarter are the local duo of Mark Williams and Ryan Day as well as the out of form Barry Hawkins who needs a big tournament soon to get him going for the World Championship.
There are some perfectly capable outsiders in this part of the draw too. Yan Bingtao has already made a Home Nations final this season while Michael White will be up for this in his homeland. Matthew Stevens is another Welshman who will want to go well while Martin Gould, Mark King, Ricky Walden and Tom Ford are always dangerous.
Second Quarter
Judd Trump headlines the seeds in this second quarter of the draw while former finalist and World Grand Prix runner up Ding Junhui is also in this section. They are joined by the winner of the previous Home Nations event Neil Robertson and Kyren Wilson in terms of the top 16 players.
As ever the outsiders in this quarter are decent enough. Robert Milkins is always competent while Xiao Guodong has been in decent form for a while. Li Hang, Mark Davis and Thepchaiya Un-Nooh can all beat the best players on their day so this is a competitive little section.
Third Quarter
This is where the heavyweight duo of World Grand Prix winner Ronnie O’Sullivan and multi-tournament winner and former champion of this event John Higgins are housed. Neutrals will hope they can set up an excellent quarter final but Luca Brecel and Ali Carter are members of the top 16 who will be hoping that is not the case.
The Shootout winner Michael Georgiou is among the outsiders in this section of the tournament while two men who will be wanting big tournaments in Joe Perry and Stephen Maguire are in this quarter too. They play each other in the first round as do Jack Lisowski and Mark Joyce. Graeme Dott is also in this quarter.
Bottom Quarter
The bottom quarter is a really juicy one as it is the one where the world champion Mark Selby is along with the Champion of Champions winner Shaun Murphy and The Masters champion Mark Allen. The other top player in action in this part of the draw is Anthony McGill who is in decent form himself.
Cao Yupeng was runner up in the last Home Nations event and he is in this quarter as is his Chinese compatriot Liang Wenbo. Apart from Ben Woollaston you would have to say the rest of this part of the draw are here to try and win a couple of rounds and bank some much needed prize money.
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Betting
As ever I’ll take a player from each quarter and see where it gets us. Hopefully a couple get through the best of seven stage and give us some weekend interest.
The top quarter is where my main bet is and that is Mark Williams. Williams has already won one of these Home Nations events in Northern Ireland this season and he’ll be massively motivated to win in front of his friends and family again. His quarter is not the toughest one in the draw but it wouldn’t matter anyway given the way he is playing. Some players freeze in front of home crowds but with two wins, a final and three other semi-finals Williams isn’t one of them so he’s my main bet here.
Xiao Guodong has gone quarter final, quarter final in 2018 and in fairness he did little wrong in the World Grand Prix last week. He was just unfortunate to run into a vintage Ronnie O’Sullivan but he shouldn’t have lost any confidence or belief from that. He is in the second quarter where doubts remain over Ding Junhui and Judd Trump. This quarter could get blown wide open early goods and the Chinese star could be the one to take advantage of that.
Michael Georgiou is in decent nick at the minute and while all eyes will be on Ronnie O’Sullivan and John Higgins in the third quarter it could be worth a bet on the Shootout winner. He wouldn’t be the first person to win the Shootout and take the confidence from that and win another and if anything does happen to the main two in the quarter it will be wide open. It may come to nothing but Georgiou is too big a price not to back.
Anthony McGill showed some good signs last week and a quarter final defeat to Ding Junhui is certainly no shame. The way McGill scored in that tournament was very encouraging and although he will run into Mark Selby in the last 16 here it would only be over the best of seven and Selby looks all over the shop at the minute form wise. McGill has a decent record in best of seven events and was a semi-finalist in the English Open earlier in the season as well as making the final in India. He looks a big price at 100/1.
Tips
Back M.Williams to win Welsh Open (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 17.00 with Boylesports (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
Back X.Guodong to win Welsh Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfair (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
Back A.McGill to win Welsh Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfred (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
Back M.Georgiou to win Welsh Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 501.00 with Ladbrokes (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
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Ladbrokes wont let me place anything on Gerogiou. They cap my stakes normally but this time they are saying iv reached my max stake without placing anything at all. Annoying
Coral saved the day, as always when ladbrokes screw me over
Meanwhile, McGills odds drop to 80s haha. boooo