Thoughts among the golfing world are firmly being fixed towards Augusta in a couple of weeks but before anyone gets there we have the annual match play extravaganza this week as the biggest and best in the game head to Texas for the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play Championship.
Dustin Johnson won the tournament last year to extend the quality recent list of champions in the event and given the strength of the field this week you would think another top class champion is all but guaranteed.
Recent Winners
2017 – Dustin Johnson
2016 – Jason Day
2015 – Rory McIlroy
2014 – Jason Day
2013 – Matt Kuchar
2012 – Hunter Mahan
2011 – Luke Donald
2010 – Ian Poulter
2009 – Geoff Ogilvy
2008 – Tiger Woods
The Format
The 64 man field have been placed into 16 groups. Each group has one player from each seeding pot with the players ranked 1-16 being seeded in each group. They have been joined by one player from rankings 17-32, one from 33-48 and one from 49-64 so in theory the top 16 in the field should have an advantage.
Over the first three days everybody plays the other three players in their group over a best of 18 holes match with a point for the winner and 0.5pts to any players who tie. After the matches have been completed each group winner goes through to the last 16. If there is a tie on points a sudden death play-off takes place.
The tournament is straight knockout from the last 16 on Saturday morning through the quarter finals on Saturday afternoon, into the semi-finals on Sunday morning and the final on Sunday afternoon. All knockout matches are the best of 18 holes too with extra holes to decide halved matches.
The Course
Austin Country Club hosts the tournament for the third time this week and what a great match play course it is. The course itself is a par 71 which measures just 7,108 yards which on the face of it would make you think that everyone has a real chance around here but if you look at the majority of players who have made the latter stages in the last two years big hitter hold sway.
The fairways here are pretty wide but there is a lot of water around, especially on the back nine and the longer hitters can clear much of that. The pins on this course are usually set in sections on the greens so precise iron play is key so the shorter irons being played in the better the chance of getting it close. We are in Texas so having players who can play in the wind might well be advantageous but they must be long and putting well.
The Field
Almost everyone in the top 64 in the world who have qualified for the tournament are teeing it up. There are exceptions with the likes of Justin Rose, Henrik Stenson and Rickie Fowler choosing to give the tournament a swerve.
We are still left with a top field though. Last week’s champion Rory McIlroy is here as is the world number one and defending champion Dustin Johnson. The man who he beat in the final last year is here too in Jon Rahm while Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth and former champion here Jason Day all tee it up in a field absolutely loaded with quality.
Market Leaders
After his win last week Rory McIlroy heads a pretty tight betting market. He is the 8/1 favourite. He was fourth here two years ago and you would think the confidence of winning last week will have done wonders for him. He putted well at Bay Hill which could be vital around here. He can’t be ruled out but his quarter is pretty competitive which is a negative.
Dustin Johnson was not behind in a single one of his seven matches last year which is an amazing achievement but he arrives in Texas this year not quite in the same form. The draw has worked out kind though which probably should make him the favourite to win the tournament but despite that I’m not convinced there is too much value in the 10/1 quotes on him.
Justin Thomas has an awful record in singles play with just one win in seven attempts in both this tournament and the Presidents Cup. With that in mind I’m not sure I would want to be on him at 12/1 even though he is playing the best golf of his career in the last 12-15 months. Jon Rahm is slightly bigger at 14/1 and went well last year but he’s in the tough section of the draw which has to be factored in when taking him.
Jason Day is the only other player shorter than 20/1 in the betting. Were it not for a tough group he might even be shorter than the 16/1 he currently is. If he can come through the group though we know he has the ability to go the course and distance as he has won the tournament twice. It is 20/1 bar those named.
[the_ad_group id=”3624″]
Bets
As ever in this tournament I’m going to take a player in each quarter in the hope we get a couple through their group and into the knockout stages where anything can happen from there in truth. Betfair are paying eight places so when best prices and their prices aren’t too different I’ll take the each way terms with them while there is one quarter which is stacked so I’m betting with them in that section.
In the first quarter I like the look of Louis Oosthuizen. The South African has a great record on this golf course. He made the final here in 2016 and only lost out in his group in a play-off last year having won two of his matches. Oosthuizen is an excellent match player and has the length needed around here. His short game stands up to most and he can play in the wind. If he can see off Day in the group he could go a long way.
In the second quarter Justin Thomas just has to be taken on with his record in 18 hole singles matches. I actually think Paul Casey has landed in a perfect spot in the draw. Not only has he been handed a group that he should dominate but the other seeds are vulnerable. Sergio Garcia will surely have his mind on home life after the birth of his child last week and his upcoming title defence at Augusta while Pat Perez has no massive match play credentials. Casey is a former runner up in this and has won the Volvo Match Play in the past. He enjoys 18 hole combat and looks the pick from this section.
The third quarter is the brutal one with recent tournament winners Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson taking on the 2017 finalist Jon Rahm. Marc Leishman is the other seed in this quarter and then there are dangerous players in Branden Grace, Bubba Watson and Rafa Cabrera Bello but it could be that the recent Perth Super 6 winner Kiradech Aphibarnrat eclipses them all at a tasty price. The Thai has won the Paul Lawrie Match Play in the past to go with his Super 6 title so he enjoys this format. He is sneaky long who can get the ball in the hole and he’ll be motivated to do well. He’s my pick here.
The headline of the group draw was Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed being drawn against each other and it would be a surprise if their match is not a Friday group winning showdown. I like Reed in it and I think he can go quite deep as a result. The other seeds in the quarter are Alex Noren, Hideki Matsuyama and Tyrrell Hatton so the only star he may face before the semi-final is Spieth. There is a perception Spieth has a good record in this match play style. He doesn’t. He has never won a singles match in the Ryder Cup or the Presidents Cup in five tries and he’s only 9-4 in this tournament when he will have been seeded in his group every time. Reed is back in form and he should go deep here.
Tips
Back L.Oosthuizen to win WGC Dell Technologies Match Play (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 67.00 with BetVictor (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
Back P.Casey to win WGC Dell Technologies Match Play (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with Ladbrokes (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
Back P.Reed to win WGC Dell Technologies Match Play (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
PLACED – Back K.Aphibarnrat to win WGC Dell Technologies Match Play (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2018
