The eyes of the golfing world will be on Mexico this week as the biggest players in the game head to the Aztec country for the first WGC event of the year – the WGC Mexico. This is the second time this tournament has been staged in Mexico after previously being played at Doral for much of its existence.
World number one Dustin Johnson enjoyed his trip across the border last year when he landed the title and he is back to try and make a successful defence of it here. The biggest and the best of the game will be out to deny him though.
Recent Winners
2017 – Dustin Johnson
The Course
We are back at the Club de Golf Chapultepec this week. The course is around 7,500 metres above sea level so it is at altitude so knowing the distances is a massive feature of the week and the caddies are certainly going to earn their corn.
The course is a par 71 which measures 7,330 yards although it doesn’t play to that total. It is heavily treelined and is full of undulations so it is very much like many of the European courses. Wentworth is a similar layout albeit without the altitude while Sun City for the Nedbank is another track which is like this one.
This is a ball striker’s course rather than a bombers one although the extra length the big hitters have certainly does no harm. You can contend without insane length though.
The Field
Anyone who is anyone in the present game of golf are teeing it up this week with the exception of one or two who have not made the trip such as Henrik Stenson and Rory McIlroy. Dustin Johnson heads those who have but the cavalry are right behind him wanting his title.
They include world number two Jon Rahm as well as last week’s Honda Classic winner Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose. The leading European pair of Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren are in the field as are Rickie Fowler, Phil Mickelson and the Masters champion Sergio Garcia. There will be star quality wherever you look this week that is for sure.
Market Leaders
The defending champion Dustin Johnson is the 13/2 favourite to make a successful defend of the title. He is always a danger and a threat for any tournament he enters right now but the way he melted at Pebble Beach and offered little at Riviera could be a course for concern. Nevertheless he should not be ruled out although recent form makes him look a little short at 13/2.
Honda Classic champion Justin Thomas will come here on a high and he is 8/1 to make it wins in successive weeks. He generally has a decent record overseas having won a couple of PGA Tour events in Asia so there is no reason why he can’t contend and win again unless the emotions of winning a big event last week have drained him a little.
Jon Rahm is next in the betting. The world number two can be backed at 11/1 to win the biggest tournament of his career so far and if he can keep his temperament in control then he would have every chance. He hasn’t played for a couple of weeks so he should be well rested. The only question mark over him is whether his price is sufficient in this field.
Jordan Spieth is 12/1 to win the tournament and while tee to green you would think he will be right there his putting has been questionable recently which is quite amazing. I sense that is leading to a little bit too much frustration and putting his long game under pressure. He’s not for me this week but he’s that good it wouldn’t be a surprise were he to turn his form around and win the title. It is 16/1 bar those four.
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Main Bets
I’ll go with two main bets this week and it will surprise nobody that they are both Europeans with European players regularly playing at altitude each season. My first pick is exactly the same as last week in Alex Noren. Had Noren not got the rough end of the draw and been out on the Friday afternoon when the wind was gusting he would have won by a comfortable margin but just like last week this course looks to suit him perfectly. He ticks every box. He’s won the Nedbank and has twice won the Omega Masters at altitude and he has won on the treelined undulations of Wentworth too. Noren is brilliant from tee to green and we saw last week how good his short game is too. I’ll take him again.
Ross Fisher was third here last year and since then he has been runner up in some big tournaments not least the Italian Open and the Abu Dhabi Championship. He led both those deep into the back nine on Sunday so he is regularly in the mix. He has plenty of form at altitude not least around here and his tee to green game is working brilliantly. He is a confident cat right now and I’ll ride that confidence this week.
Outsiders
Branden Grace is another player with a stellar record at altitude, as you would expect coming from South Africa. He won the Nedbank last year and his record in the tournament is very strong indeed. He is another who is proficient from tee to green and given his experience in altitude he should have his numbers right this week. That’s a massive advantage and I don’t really see Grace being out of contention given his recent form.
Louis Oosthuizen is another South African who will have grown up playing at altitude so this test shouldn’t worry him. Oosthuizen was in and around the mix at the Honda last week but couldn’t get anything going on the final day. He should come on for that run though and with his competence at altitude, his sneaky length and his excellent all-round game the South African should contend strongly here.
Haotong Li has already won a big event in Dubai this season where he held off Rory McIlroy to win the tournament so we know he won’t be worried about competing in this company. He also ran well at the Nedbank last season which shows that he can deal with the altitude. There aren’t many better drivers of the ball than the Chinese player and off the back of a win just a month ago he looks a massive price even in this field.
Tips
Back A.Noren to win WGC Mexico Championship (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 26.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back R.Fisher to win WGC Mexico Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Back L.Oosthuizen to win WGC Mexico Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
Back B.Grace to win WGC Mexico Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back H.Li to win WGC Mexico Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
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