The final outright market to look at for the Big Bash League tournament before it gets underway in Brisbane on Tuesday is the one for the top bowler, one which with the favourite at 12/1, is an extremely competitive betting heat.
Kane Richardson showcased his qualities to top the wicket taking last season as the Melbourne Renegades waltzed off with the title, but there is an even stronger set of bowlers opposing him over the course of the campaign.
Recent Winners
2018/19 – Kane Richardson (24)
2017/18 – Dwayne Bravo & Rashid Khan (18)
2016/17 – Sean Abbott (20)
2015/16 – Clint McKay (18)
2014/15 – John Hastings (16)
2013/14 – Cameron Gannon (18)
2012/13 – Ben Laughlin (14)
2011/12 – Rana Naved-ul-Hasan (15)
Favourites
Asian spinners Sandeep Lamichhane and Rashid Khan will begin the season as the 12/1 favourites to top score in this tournament. I’ve noticed in recent times that teams are happy to sit on the mystery spinners and get stuck in at the other end which is a negative for both of these. The positive is that there are still a lot of players who can’t read them so if injuries don’t get involved it is hard to see either not having great campaigns. They might just be a tad short though.
Sean Abbott is regularly in the mix when it comes to the most wickets and actually landed the gong three seasons ago. He had a pretty indifferent 50 over competition this season but you would think he’ll come alive for the Sixers once again. Abbott is a 16/1 poke to take the most wickets this season which might be quite big considering he was second last year as well as taking the crown in BBL 06. He shouldn’t be too far away.
James Faulkner was back to his best in the T20 Blast when he was performing for Lancashire and his 18 wickets for Hobart last season was enough to get him in the top seven overall last year. There is no Jofra Archer in Tasmania this year but I’m not convinced that helps Faulkner as teams can sit on him and attack at the other end. 17/1 is probably a price reflective of his chances of being the top bowler rather than any value.
Qais Ahmad is a teammate of Faulkner at the Hurricanes. He only played three matches last term but had the best strike rate of anyone in the competition so the longer stint for him this time round should see him go even better. Once again though he might be sat on if possible plus I’m not sure wickets around this competition suit spinners too much. If teams play him straight he could be nullified although I’d rather be with him than against him in this market.
Harry Gurney, Chris Morris and Ben Laughlin all come in around the 20/1 mark which looks more than fair. Gurney is turning himself into a wicket taking machine in this format of the game with the Kolkata Knight Riders and the Barbados Tridents just two of the sides in addition to Nottinghamshire who have benefitted from his skills. He is with the Melbourne Renegades once again this season and is there for the duration of it which could be key. Morris should go well for the Sydney Thunder but they play on so many different wickets getting suited to one is never easy while Laughlin is at Brisbane this season and the Gabba is no place for bowlers.
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Profile
As with the batsmen, we need to settle the field down a little bit wherever possible otherwise we are betting in a 40 runner field if not a few more so once again I’m going to apply some logical filters which are based on historical things. The obvious place to start is whether to choose a seamer or a spinner. If you look at the list of winners above they are all seamers while only two of the leading nine wicket takers were spinners last season.
Wickets are a lower denominator than runs so each one could be crucial therefore taking bowlers who are likely to be involved in the playoffs could be advantageous. Clearly we would need luck to get the ultimate number of matches but we can effectively take out three teams with at least one extra match let alone a potential three or four.
Betting
I’ll take three in this market. The first of them is the defending champion so to speak in Kane Richardson. He won easily last year and his death bowling is a reason why. He had a good 50 over competition for South Australia and with Harry Gurney at the other end proving hard to get away teams are going to have to take risks at Richardson that won’t always pay off. Richardson bowls at the start of the innings and the death where the cheap wickets tend to fall most regularly. At 20/1 I think he is a standout contender in a side who I think will go very close to winning the whole thing.
Riley Meredith came to the party last season with 16 wickets and while I don’t expect Hobart Hurricanes to have a particularly great campaign, with Jofra Archer out of the way I do see Meredith going better than last season. Only four men took more wickets than him in the 50 over competition this season which is already a positive and when you think he is likely to get the new ball he could well be bowling in the key overs. Hobart have a couple of tidy spinners so the risks might have to come against Meredith so even in a bat season he could be a leading runner.
I keep reading how Billy Stanlake is getting back to his best and he took three wickets in a warm up match against Perth over the weekend to continue to highlight that. I don’t think Adelaide have the best bowling attack in the world but teams will still respect Rashid Khan enough that they will look to attack the other bowlers. At his best Stanlake is a bowler who took the new ball for Australia and had a decent record doing so. I have to admit he’s my least convincing case but enough judges have made the comment about his form that I respect it. I’ll have a small stake on him here:
Tips
Back K.Richardson Season Top Bowler (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with Coral (1/4 1-4)
Back R.Meredith Season Top Bowler (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/4 1-4)
Back B.Stanlake Season Top Bowler (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/4 1-4)
Back them here:
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