The new football season begins on Friday night and given that I support a team flying through the leagues quicker than Usain Bolt whizzes past inferior foes, much of our Football League focus on this site will be on the Sky Bet Championship this season. There will still be occasional League One content, but given much of my personal viewing attention will centre round the second tier, the majority of the betting will be likewise.
So onto the Championship where we have two standout sides in the betting in what feels a much more open league than we are used to. Norwich City showed last season that it isn’t all about the favourites in this division necessarily.
Recent Winners
2018-19 – Norwich City
2017-18 – Wolverhampton Wanderers
2016-17 – Newcastle United
2015-16 – Burnley
2014-15 – Bournemouth
2013-14 – Leicester City
2012-13 – Cardiff City
2011-12 – Reading
2010-11 – Queens Park Rangers
2009-10 – Newcastle United
The Favourites
Leeds United looked certainties for promotion at the halfway mark last season but as injuries and suspensions bit, others got stronger and they couldn’t live up to the billing, ultimately being denied in the play-offs. You would expect them to bounce back strongly but the loss of Pontus Jansson has caused concerns and if Kalvin Phillips leaves in the last week of the transfer window you wonder how they’ll go. Helder Costa looks a blinding signing and they have got Jack Clarke back on loan so they are probably worthy 9/2 favourites but it isn’t a price which does anything for me, even though they look booked in to be there or thereabouts throughout the campaign.
Fulham were relegated from the Premier League last season but haven’t dwelt on that. They have recruited very strongly with the likes of Ivan Cabaleiro and Anthony Knockaert coming in and at the time of writing the likes of Tom Cairney and Ryan Sessegnon have stayed put. The contract extension of Aleksandar Mitrovic is a right statement of intent and with Scott Parker in place I expect the Cottagers to go very well at 7/1 in their first campaign back down in the Championship.
The third favourites Cardiff City are another team looking to bounce back from the dejection of relegation last term. Neil Warnock has a fine record at getting teams out of this league and it took a Wolverhampton Wanderers who nobody were going to compete with to pip them to the title when they were last in the division. There is plenty of juice in their 10/1 price to be fair but they’ve lost a couple of key players and might just lack an out and out goalscorer to guide them to the title.
West Bromwich Albion and Brentford are next in the market at 11/1 and 14/1 respectively. You would have to take a leap of faith on both if backing them for the title before a ball is kicked. West Brom have lost a heck of a lot of goals from last term and while Ken Zohore has come in, I hate it when a new manager and a new strike force come in. That might just be a personal thing but I go against it massively. Brentford have been threatening big things for a few seasons now and while they can be excused last term after losing Dean Smith halfway through, there are no excuses this time. I can’t be backing them until the window closes but if their star attacking players remain it will be game on once the window shuts.
Stoke City are also around the 14/1 mark but they will need an incredible improvement on what they showed under Nathan Jones in the second half of last season. His inexperience at this level is still a concern but I know from experience that he generally does improve his team the longer he is in place. Whether this squad is ready yet remains to be seen, and there is no hiding that the injury to Ryan Shawcross is a bitter blow. They look skinny to me.
Contenders
Huddersfield Town begin the campaign around the 20/1 mark which you would have to say is a bit on the big side given that they were in the Premier League last season. Ultimately they were pony in it and their change of manager doesn’t really give off the impression that they will be much better here. They were marginally better under Seifert last term but not to the extent that they look guaranteed promotion candidates. Terriers fans might not want stability but that is all they are likely to get in my eyes.
Derby County suffered the ultimate heartache of losing in the play-off final last term and then their manager Frank Lampard went too. Phillip Cocu has taken over but his last managerial job was a nightmare and the loan players who were so successful last season are back with their Premier League clubs this time round. Derby are having to cut their cloth accordingly and it would be a massive effort if they are promotion challengers.
Bristol City have shown all their credentials in cup competitions over the last couple of seasons and it might be that this is the time for them to shine in the league. Adam Webster will be a big loss if he departs but they’ve offset that with some decent signings who should fit into their pleasant style nicely. Lee Johnson’s men have flirted with the play-offs for a while and this might be the year they break into it, and if any of the big guns fail to live up to expectation, the Robins could yet go even better than just a top six finish.
Best of the Rest
Nottingham Forest are around the 22/1 mark to win the league. There is a lot of positive talk around the City Ground at the minute with expectations quietly increasing under Sabri Lamouchi. He has signed well and to be fair there was enough at the City Ground anyway, Roy Keane and Martin O’Neill probably just weren’t the men to get it out of them. Whether they will launch anything like a title challenge remains to be seen but the top six might not be beyond them.
You can get 28/1 on the best prices for Middlesbrough whose fans might already think they have hit the jackpot by virtue of the fact that they won’t be watching a Tony Pulis side ever again. Jonathan Woodgate is the new man in the hot seat and you would think he will be a canny appointment but expectancy will be high if they get off to a good start and that might be too soon for the local lad. Boro might just come up short of the play-offs and if you can’t get that 28/1 there is nothing to like about the price.
Swansea City were the fast finishing team for much of last season but optimism and positivity from that dissipated when Graham Potter went to Brighton and Daniel Jones left for Manchester United. Swansea are in a much better place than they were when Potter arrived at the Liberty Stadium but there is no hiding the strength of his loss. They are around 33/1 shots for the title but that looks well beyond them. With Oli McBurnie also off to the Premier League I sense Swansea are at least another year away from challenging for promotion.
Betting
I’ll have a pop at a couple of sides in this division this season. I really like Fulham this season. They’ve spent big which brings its own pressures but if Scott Parker had taken over from Slavisa Jokanovic instead of Claudio Ranieri, the Cottagers might actually have stayed up given their form and performances under him. He has the best attacking core in the division, and while they might not be as strong as some at the back I don’t think Fulham will have any issues looking to outscore the opposition. There’s still time to sort out any defensive deficiencies and at 7/1 they look excellent for the accumulators but I’m keen enough on them for a single too.
While there are three standout sides in the division in Leeds, Fulham and Cardiff City, you wouldn’t say any of them are bombproof and we saw just last season that teams unfancied can get up with the pace and stay there. Bristol City could be that team this year. I have them a great deal stronger on paper than the market portrays them. We know keeping Webster will be ideal but there is still enough in this talented young side to launch a title campaign. Norwich shaped up similar to Bristol City last season in that they left themselves open by bombing on young energetic full-backs and mixing them in with a quality attacking core. I’ll pay to see how close the Robins go.
Tips
Back Fulham to win Sky Bet Championship (e/w) for a 2.5/10 stake at 8.00 with William Hill (1/4 1-3)
Back them here:
Back Bristol City to win Sky Bet Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with Betway (1/4 1-3)
Back them here:
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