The European Tour returns for the first time in 2019 this week when a stacked field of stellar players head to the UAE for the Abu Dhabi Championship, the first of two tournaments in the opening part of the Desert Swing. The event is the first Rolex Series tournament of the year too. This event begins on Wednesday this week which is something to remember when betting.
Tommy Fleetwood made a successful defence of the title last year so he will be looking for a third straight success in this tournament but he is up against a seriously good field for a European Tour event it must be said.
Recent Winners
2018 – Tommy Fleetwood
2017 – Tommy Fleetwood
2016 – Rickie Fowler
2015 – Gary Stal
2014 – Pablo Larrazabal
2013 – Jamie Donaldson
2012 – Robert Rock
2011 – Martin Kaymer
2010 – Martin Kaymer
2009 – Paul Casey
The Course
It is the Abu Dhabi Golf Club which is the venue for the tournament this week. The course seems to develop each year the tour arrives here so we could see it play more testing than ever before which should make it a good watch.
On paper at least, the course is a right monster as it is a par 72 which measures 7,583 yards but given the dry air and the heat the track doesn’t play as long as that. Of all the courses used on the Desert Swing, the rough here is the toughest I think so solid ball striking from tee to green is key, although length is an advantage too. Generally the greens are lightning fast around here so scrambling is not easy. It is no surprise the roll of honour here is a who’s who of clean ball strikers.
The Field
Tommy Fleetwood heads up the field in terms of the defending champion and one of the leading lights in Europe at the present time but two Americans jump out off the page in the form of Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka, who tee it up here rather than back home on the PGA Tour.
Some of Europe’s finest are here including Henrik Stenson, Tyrrell Hatton, Thomas Pieters and Matt Wallace while experienced campaigners such as Ross Fisher and Martin Kaymer are also in the field. The high quality South African Louis Oosthuizen is in the field while his compatriot Branden Grace also tees it up in this event.
Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson is a 6/1 favourite to win the tournament this week but he hasn’t convinced me for a while and although the course should suit his natural game, there is something telling me that he isn’t much of a price here. As ever you would need him to win to get any sort of pay out and in this field I don’t think you could guarantee he will so I’m pretty happy to look elsewhere for my punts in this tournament.
Defending champion Tommy Fleetwood and US Open and USPGA champion Brooks Koepka are both 11/1 to win here. Not many tournaments have a three-peat which would have to go against Fleetwood while Koepka continues to flatter to deceive away from the major championships. If I was backing either I would back Fleetwood but both are probably the right price at best so I’m happy to leave them alone too.
Henrik Stenson is an 18/1 fourth favourite but it has been a while since we have seen him at full health which is enough of an issue for me to pass him over even allowing for his wonderful record out in the desert. If he is spot on it then he could challenge here but there are enough question marks to look elsewhere.
Louis Oosthuizen and Tyrrell Hatton are both 22/1 to win the tournament. I can never truly get Oosthuizen right although in theory this should suit him down to the ground. Hatton threw this away a couple of years ago so won’t lack for motivation but is probably the right price, if not the slightest bit skinny. It is 25/1 bar.
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Main Bets
Lee Westwood did me a good turn in the Nedbank Challenge towards the end of last year and at 45/1 I’ll back him in this tournament too. He is a former runner up in this tournament and made the top 10 here two years ago and heads into this event off the back of a fine finish to last year. Not only did he win the Nedbank but he was one decent round from winning in Dubai as well. Westwood showed in those two weeks that he remains a tee to green monster and if the putter cooperates here then he should be right in the mix once again.
It is hard to look at this tournament and not back Martin Kaymer especially when we can get 50/1 on him. He is a three-time champion around here and would have won it for a fourth time but for that monumental meltdown. Kaymer rediscovered his long game towards the end of 2018 and the penny has dropped that he has to put in a lot of work to get back to where he was. He has been doing that over the winter so the signs are good for him having a big week here. As well as his three wins, Kaymer has four other top six finishes and with two top fives last season the talent is still there. The work he’s put in can get its rewards here.
Outsiders
We coined it in on Aaron Rai in Hong Kong towards the end of 2018 and I’m happy to get on him again this week. We are after tee to green machines and we saw that week that he doesn’t miss many fairways and he doesn’t miss a lot of greens either so his success or otherwise could come down to the putter. You usually find with a win behind them a player gets plenty more putts to the hole so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rai run hot again here. Rai was in the top 10 in the Nedbank to further showcase his long game credentials. He’s too big at 100/1 this week.
Another player who is overpriced here is Peter Hanson. He hasn’t won the tournament but he has been a runner up around here and has seven top 11 finishes in 12 outings in this event. He had two top 10 last year including at the Alfred Dunhill Links which confirms that he can still perform strongly so if a familiar surrounding where he has played well many times before brings out the best in him he could very easily deliver some sort of return at a crazy 350/1.
Tips
Back L.Westwood to win Abu Dhabi Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back M.Kaymer to win Abu Dhabi Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with BetVictor (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back A.Rai to win Abu Dhabi Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back P.Hanson to win Abu Dhabi Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 351.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
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