The second Masters 1000 event of the calendar year stays in Miami over the next couple of weeks but it has a new home, as the ATP Miami Open has moved across town to the Hard Rock Stadium complex for the foreseeable future.
John Isner had the most memorable week of his career in this tournament last year when he bombed his way to the title, and he arrives here dreaming of successfully defending the crown. As always though a decent field opposes him.
Recent Winners
2018 – John Isner
2017 – Roger Federer
2016 – Novak Djokovic
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Novak Djokovic
2013 – Andy Murray
2012 – Novak Djokovic
2011 – Novak Djokovic
2010 – Andy Roddick
2009 – Andy Murray
The Format
We are using the same format as at Indian Wells recently. 96 players will be in the field once qualifying has concluded with the 32 seeds straight into the second round. Qualifiers and those ranked outside the top 32 play in the first round to join them there. The draw has been completed already and the tournament is a straight knockout with every match over the best of three sets. There is a tiebreak in the final set should it reach 6-6. The champion is crowned on the second Sunday of the competition.
Top Quarter
As with at Indian Wells, the Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic is the number one seed and headline act in the top quarter. He will be reeling from an early exit in the desert and likely to be out to do some damage here. Defending champion John Isner is ranked as his main danger but as other there are six other seeds looking to have a say. They are John Millman, Roberto Bautista Agut, Fabio Fognini, Milos Raonic, Kyle Edmund and Lucas Pouille.
The qualifiers haven’t been placed into the draw bracket yet but there are already some household unseeded names in this section. They include Martin Klizan and Tomas Berdych, who are both capable of good runs this week. Maximilian Marterer, Taylor Fritz, Federico Delbonis and Bernard Tomic should bring something to the party too.
Second Quarter
Indian Wells champion Dominic Thiem is the main seed in this quarter. The Austrian is looking for successive Masters 1000 series titles which would be quite some effort. Kei Nishikori is ranked the main danger to him. The other six seeded players in this quarter are Marton Fucsovics, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Gael Monfils, Borna Coric, Gilles Simon and Nick Kyrgios.
There are plenty of qualifiers to be placed into this part of the draw but those we know who are in it but are not ranked high enough to be seeded include Dusan Lajovic, Tennys Sandgren, Nicolas Jarry, Jeremy Chardy and Mischa Zverev. Hubert Hurkacz will look for another big tournament here after his run to the quarters at Indian Wells.
Third Quarter
The beaten finalist at Indian Wells last week, Roger Federer, is the top seed in a wide open looking third quarter. It could open up even more early on should Kevin Anderson not be fit to take his place in the tournament. If that is the case then the other six seeds will all be hoping for a big run in the competition. They are Stan Wawrinka, Diego Schwartzman, Daniil Medvedev, Karen Khachanov, Grigor Dimitrov and Steve Johnson.
This is a quarter loaded with good unseeded players and that is before the qualifiers get put into it. Jaume Munar will be looking to make his case for a big week while Feliciano Lopez, Benoit Paire and Filip Krajinovic are dangerous to anyone on their day. There is British interest in this section too with Cameron Norrie entering it in the first round.
Bottom Quarter
ATP Finals winner Alexander Zverev was beaten pretty early in Indian Wells last week but he is the number two seed here in the absence of Rafael Nadal and he leads up the bottom quarter. Exciting Greek ace Stefanos Tsitsipas is seeded to be his main danger but there are some real good floating seeds in this part of the draw. They begin with Frances Tiafoe and David Goffin but also include Marco Cecchinato, Marin Cilic, Denis Shapovalov and Guido Pella.
As with the other quarters there are some competitive players outside the seeded ones on show in this section. Leonardo Mayer might well enjoy these conditions while the faster courts of Miami should suit Ivo Karlovic and his big serve nicely too. Last week’s quarter finalist Miomir Kecmanovic, Sam Querrey and David Ferrer make up the bottom quarter.
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Betting
I’ll go with two outright bets this week. Although Novak Djokovic was an early casualty last week, his record in Miami is strong enough to make me head to the bottom half but a couple of punts. If the Serb departs early doors here I’ll visit the top half but with no Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer having a testing schedule the bottom half looks wide open.
It is Federer who heads the third quarter but after making the final in Indian Wells last year he lost in the first round of this event and I wonder if he is able to do another deep couple of weeks here. One man in his quarter who certainly is, is the Russian star Karen Khachanov. I was really impressed with him last week and it took Rafael Nadal at his best to beat him in the quarter final. There will be no worrying about the Spaniard this week and the faster conditions here should suit the Russian who was creaming the ball nicely in the desert. It is fair to say that it hasn’t been the best start to 2019 for Khachanov but he might have turned the corner last week and at 50/1 I can’t ignore him here.
I took Stefanos Tsitsipas last week and my dough was done before his countrymen could smash a few plates but I took him there for a reason and given that he was out so quickly I need to give him a chance to redeem himself. Tsitsipas has been one of the stars of the season so far and the bright lights and backdrop of Miami should inspire him to deliver his best tennis. Anyone can have a bad day. Hopefully he had his last week and if he did then with this draw he can more than make up for it here at a significant price.
Tips
Back K.Khachanov to win ATP Miami Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Betway (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
Back S.Tsitsipas to win ATP Miami Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Boylesports (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
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