The first round of the final event on the European Tour this season takes place out in Dubai on Thursday when the DP World Tour Championship gets underway, with the leading players on the continent looking for a good early position.
This Tour finale carries a massive prize pool with it so even those who are not in contention for the Race to Dubai crown can make a tidy wedge to put towards the Christmas presents at the end of the four days.
First Round Leader
We haven’t had a huge amount of success in this market yet over the last two weeks so hopefully we have saved a winner for here. Every player goes off the first tee on Thursday, all in Race to Dubai order with four hours between the tee times so there isn’t really going to be a weather bias, not that I would expect one anyway in this part of the world. That leaves us to look at a couple of players who I think can go well. I’m taking players from earlier in the day as these greens do cut up.
The two I like are Jordan Smith and Sergio Garcia. Smith was tied for the lead after the first round here last year and he goes out in the second pairing on Thursday which should have him in an excellent position to launch another decent opening round tilt. Garcia has the tee to green game to go well round here and if he can get some putts to the hole he too could skip into a nice place at the end of the first round. Garcia’s 72 in the opening round of the HSBC Champions was the first time in seven events he hasn’t broken 70 in the first round. I see him getting back to going low here and so he’s a good chance at a nice price.
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Thursday 2 Balls
The good thing about this tournament is that with only 50 runners from the off the field go out in two balls which in theory should make finding winners in each round a little easier than it has been over the last couple of weeks. The last pair out onto the golf course are Bernd Wiesberger and Tommy Fleetwood and they go off at 08.40 GMT. The Open champion Shane Lowry and Jon Rahm go off 10 minutes before then.
Given that the pairs go out in Race to Dubai order there are some good groups throughout the morning. Rory McIlroy is out with Matt Fitzpatrick while the hotheads Matt Wallace and Tyrrell Hatton are also paired alongside each other. Justin Rose and Lee Westwood at 06.05 GMT and Henrik Stenson and Patrick Reed ten minutes prior to that are appealing groups which should form much of the early TV coverage. I’ll go with one bet.
Shane Lowry vs Jon Rahm
Match tees off at 08.30 GMT
The penultimate group out onto the golf course sees The Open champion Shane Lowry partnering the winner here two years ago in big Jon Rahm, who is seeing a golf course for the first time in seven weeks when he tees off here.
Rahm has a very good record around here but there are plenty of question marks about how rusty he will be and even if it only takes him six holes to get into the swing of things that could be long enough for Lowry to whizz clear. As well as winning The Open, Lowry also won the Abu Dhabi Championship and generally goes well in the desert. Rahm has only played one desert event in two years so that might take a bit of adjusting to as well. I think this pair will be closer than the odds suggest and although Lowry has come off his best form since he won The Open, he is still more than adequate especially with what is on the line this week. At 15/8 I’ll have a nibble on the Irishman here.
Tips
Back S.Garcia First Round Leader (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Coral (1/4 1-5)
Back J.Smith First Round Leader (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 61.00 with Coral (1/4 1-5)
Back them here:
Back S.Lowry to beat J.Rahm for a 3/10 stake at 2.88 with William Hill
Back him here:
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