Tiger Woods hosts his annual Hero World Challenge this week and with it being the Presidents Cup down under next week, we have a Wednesday start for the 18 invitational showpiece event, which is held out in the Bahamas these days.
Jon Rahm took advantage of his invitation to win the tournament last year and the newly crowned European number one is here to defend the title, with the host himself and many other superstars looking to deny him in his title defence.
Recent Winners
2018 – Jon Rahm
2017 – Rickie Fowler
2016 – Hideki Matsuyama
2015 – Bubba Watson
2014 – Jordan Spieth
2013 – Zach Johnson
2012 – Graeme McDowell
2011 – Tiger Woods
2010 – Graeme McDowell
2009 – Jim Furyk
The Course
We are back at the Albany Course in the Bahamas for the latest staging of this event. The event has been held here since 2015 so this will be the fifth event on this track which means the players will be getting used to it. No major damages were done during the storms earlier in the year so the course remains a par 72 which measures 7,309 yards and which is very much one for the longer hitters, as highlighted by the list of winners since 2015.
There is no rough to speak of here and the ball flies miles through the air so it is wise to favour those who can get it out there off the tee. This is always a low scoring event with the pins generally placed in spots where they are accessible so a hot putter is never a bad thing around here. All 18 men play all four rounds so birdies is the order of the day and lots of them.
The Field
All 12 men who will line up for the USA in Australia next week were due to be playing in this tournament but Dustin Johnson has had to pull out so only 11 of them will be teeing it up. Chez Reavie replaced Johnson, who sent shockwaves around the world of golf here last year when he mullered it 400 yards off the tee on a par four to set up a short eagle putt.
Of the other players, Rahm is in the field as the defending champion while Justin Rose also has a tee slot on what is pretty much a home game for him given that this is the part of the world that he lives in. Former champions Bubba Watson and Jordan Spieth also tee it up here while Henrik Stenson and Kevin Kisner have accepted their invitations into the competition.
Market Leaders
Jon Rahm goes into the tournament as the 4/1 favourite to defend the crown. He is looking to win a third tournament in succession having won the Open de Espana and then the season ending DP World Tour Championship in his previous two outings on the European Tour. He looks absolutely made for this course so as long as the success he has had recently hasn’t gone to his head you would think he is a very worthy favourite, if a little short given what can happen over the course of 72 holes.
Justin Thomas hasn’t won this tournament yet but you would think he has all the credentials to do so and he is 7/1 to break his duck this week. The concern for those taking him at a single figure price would be that he is yet to finish in the top 10 around this course and he has come here in much better form in the past than he looks in now. I like Thomas and respect him every week but this might not be the time to take him.
Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele compete in this tournament for the second time and they are both 9/1 to head to the Presidents Cup with a win behind them. Cantlay finished fifth here last season and Schauffele eighth so they will hope course experience benefits them here. Schauffele looks nothing like the player he was a year ago right now while Cantlay doesn’t seem to do it in elite company so I’m happy to pass them both over.
The tournament host Tiger Woods is a 10/1 poke to win his own tournament. I will be interested to see how he goes because he has next week on the horizon, although given that he is playing next week I will be interested how much focus he has put into the administration side of things and how much he has been working on his game. This isn’t a course which brings out his strengths but it would benefit him greatly go to there with a win under his belt. I’m not ruling him out but he isn’t for me.
Betting
I’ll take a couple of bets against the field this week. I think Rahm is a huge runner but I can’t be betting anyone at 4/1. Patrick Reed could go well but I sense his focus will be on next week instead which leaves my main bet as Rickie Fowler, the 2017 winner around here. I would imagine he is free rolling this week having replaced Brooks Koepka in the Presidents Cup team but I would expect him to want to prove his worth there so a decent tune up here in front of his captain wouldn’t go amiss I’m sure. Fowler gets it out there and can bring his iron and short game into play, he’s a wonderful putter and at 14/1 he stands out to me.
The other bet I like is on Tony Finau. I’m a little reluctant because he doesn’t win anywhere near as much as he should do but on a course where he was second on debut last year you would think the natural progression is to go one better. The reason why I think this course suits is there are five par 5s which he can gobble up for fun. He has also shown he is proficient in the wind which is pretty important around here as well. It can only be a matter of time before Finau starts winning tournaments regularly and I’m backing that to begin on a course that opens up every strength he has here.
Tips
Back R.Fowler to win Hero World Challenge (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 15.00 with William Hill (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
Back T.Finau to win Hero World Challenge (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Sky Bet (1/4 1-4)
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