It is the final round of the Italian Open on Sunday, which means that courtesy of it being a Rolex Series event, there is a lot of money on the line for those who made the cut and ensured a pay day out in Rome.
We have seen three very good rounds of golf so far on a course which has got firmer and faster as the week has gone on. With a perfect setting and a stacked leaderboard we are in for quite some conclusion to this event.
Round 3 Recap
When the third round went into the books it was Matthew Fitzpatrick who maintained the one shot lead he went into it with. The only difference is who he is in front of. Fitzpatrick now sits on 13 under par and leads by one from Kurt Kitayama with Robert MacIntyre another shot back on 11 under. Two serial winners are lurking menacingly another shot back on 10 under while Danish veteran Soren Kjeldsen used ‘moving day’ well to get up to nine under par. You would think the winner will come from that sextet.
Finally it was a day where the golfers played ball for us on Saturday. We intimated going into the day that Justin Rose’s score was flattered by a hot putter and that is now it was proved. He carded a seven over 78 and was never a threat to Shubhankar Sharma in their two ball so we had a good winner at an extremely attractive price. We’ll try and replicate that on Sunday.
Sunday Betting
It is only the outright market to have a go at on Sunday but those who have been with us all week won’t need to go anywhere near that as our man sits on top of the pile and looking very good indeed. If the old adage of a good round being followed by a bad one rings true it could be that Fitzpatrick has a three shot lead in effect going into this final round.
Fitzpatrick didn’t have his best stuff with him on Saturday and still carded a 68 and even a repeat of that is going to make him very hard to beat. Matt Wallace and Bernd Wiesberger might have a run at him for those who are looking for a savour or two but we’re quite happy with how the Englishman is looking right now so I’m not getting involved in this market again.
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Sunday 2 Balls
Once again the field will finish the tournament by going out in twos with the leading pair of Matt Fitzpatrick and Kurt Kitayama setting off on their last 18 holes at 11.50 BST. 10 minutes prior to that Matt Wallace and Robert MacIntyre will go off on their journey. The group which might take the biggest crowd round with it is the one featuring home man Andrea Pavan and popular player Andrew Johnston who go out at 11.10 BST. It is that group which is the focus of my Sunday bet.
Andrea Pavan vs Andrew Johnston
Match tees off at 11.10 BST
The fifth to last group out onto the golf course on Sunday is the one which the home crowds will have their eyes on as their man Andrea Pavan goes up against Andrew Johnston with a big cheque probably the focus for both with them having six and five shots to make up on Fitzpatrick respectively.
The fact that Johnston is a shot better off than Pavan already says something to me when considering a bet on this match but then like Saturday, I go and look at the stats and the one in particular – strokes gained tee-to-green – highlights a big gulf between the two men. Johnston is currently 2.5 shots better off in that discipline and that is something that has got more and more important as the week has gone on. You can’t play this course from the rough anymore so I’m going to back the better long game of Johnston to deliver another odds against winner.
Tips
WON – Back A.Johnston to beat A.Pavan for a 4/10 stake at 2.40 with Betfair
Back him here:
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