As ever on Super Bowl weekend, the PGA Tour heads to the desert for the Phoenix Open, which has packed stands, raucous crowds and is one of the better tournaments of the year as a result. If you’ve never watched this event before it is golf but with a charged edge on a brilliant course.
Gary Woodland certainly enjoyed the surroundings last year when he edged out Chez Reavie to win the title and he is back looking to defend his crown. This is a decent field here though so this is going to take some winning.
Recent Winners
2018 – Gary Woodland
2017 – Hideki Matsuyama
2016 – Hideki Matsuyama
2015 – Brooks Koepka
2014 – Kevin Stadler
2013 – Phil Mickelson
2012 – Kyle Stanley
2011 – Mark Wilson
2010 – Hunter Mahan
2009 – Kenny Perry
The Course
It is the famous TPC Scottsdale that will host the tournament this week. It is not a long course by any means at a par 71 measuring 7,261 yards but generally longer hitters have held sway here since the redesign of the course in 2015. You definitely have to drive it well here because the desert areas are not to be visited.
A truly accurate long game is now the requirement around here but you need a hot putter too so this is a good test of an all-round game. There is one caveat this week though with rains expected over the weekend and the wind likely to be up a bit too. This is a tough course at the best of times so when Mother Nature gets involved it could get make for a tricky assignment.
The Field
In terms of pure names I would imagine it is Phil Mickelson who sets the standard this week but in terms of the quality of game the likes of Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama are all welcome players teeing it up. Rickie Fowler is always a popular man around here as well.
Elsewhere we have the next era teeing it up in Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau and Cameron Smith while wily veterans Matt Kuchar, Webb Simpson and Billy Horschel are also in the field as are the 1-2 from last year in Gary Woodland and Chez Reavie. Bubba Watson is another popular player letting loose around the track.
Market Leaders
Jon Rahm goes into the tournament as the favourite this week. He can be backed at 7/1 to run off with the title which offers up a fair price given his length off the tee. Whether he has the required accuracy I would have my doubts but he’s won in the gulf desert do there is no reason why he can’t scoot off with this one too. As ever though single figure prices don’t interest me.
Justin Thomas is a worthy 10/1 second favourite. He has the quality with the driver needed to have a good week here and we’ve seen over the last couple of years that when the putter is on song he can lead any field a merry dance. We haven’t seen him in absolute pinpoint form for a while but the positive is he has the right character for this event which is important with the huge crowds.
Hideki Matsuyama came back to form last week and that should have primed him up nicely for a third tilt at this title. He is 12/1 to go in again and if you are a horse for a course man then the Japanese star is the one for you. If you are the one swallow doesn’t make a summer man then he probably isn’t. The argument for both is clearly obvious.
Xander Schauffele is a class act and he’ll go in a couple of times in 2019 I’m sure. Whether it is here remains to be seen and whether there is any value in him to do so at 18/1 I’m less convinced. I wouldn’t be surprised if he does win this because he is that good but at the prices he’s a little too skinny to get involved in what is a competitive field. It is 20/1 bar.
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Main Bets
Tony Finau has a game absolutely made for this tournament so I’m amazed his record in it is so poor. That said, he is improving all the time and has played the best golf of his career in the last nine months or so, so we can probably forget his past attempts at this event. Finau drives it brilliantly, goes at flags and makes a lot of putts. That’s the combination that makes him a huge runner at 20/1 here. He doesn’t win as much as I would like but this course suits him so well I’ll take the 20s.
I was on Chez Reavie here last year when he was the latest in a long run of big three figure shots to get done in play-offs for me but I’m nothing if not a glutton for punishment so I’ll go on the home man again here. Reavie ran hot in the Sony Open a couple of weeks ago where he finished third and that is the position he holds on the strokes gained: tee to green on the PGA Tour this season, which is a standout statistic. We saw Reavie’s game come alive here last year and at 50/1 I’ll pay to see if it does so again here.
Outsiders
Emiliano Grillo has to have a leading chance this week with his proficiency off the tee. He drives the ball really well and with the rest of his game much improved from when he first came onto the tour I see no reason why he can’t challenge this week at 66/1. If he gets the putter going then the rest of his profile is perfect for this place so at 66/1 there is plenty of legs in a bet on him in my eyes.
Abraham Ancer jumped out at me as someone who could win this tournament when he landed the event in Australia at the back end of last year and I’m going to put my money where my mouth is. He’s another one who is a wonderful driver of the golf ball and the rest of his long game is in good nick. His success or otherwise could come down to how his putter goes. That’s been warm for a while so he’s my second outsider bet.
Finally I’ve a feeling Patton Kizzire could be a dangerous outsider this week. He has already won twice on Tour in Mexico and Hawaii so we know that if the wind blows he isn’t going to be disadvantaged in any way. If he keeps the ball in play off the tee then there is nothing stopping him from going well here. He’s a good iron player and a very good putter and neither of those are bad things here. He has a decent character for this event too. He should go close.
Tips
Back T.Finau to win Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 21.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back C.Reavie to win Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Ancer to win Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back E.Grillo to win Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back P.Kizzire to win Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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