The Florida Swing kicks off this week with The Honda Classic, which means the toughest three holes on the PGA Tour – the Bear Trap – are tackled once again. Some huge events are on the horizon which has diluted the field this year but we always get a good event to open up things in Florida.
It was certainly a good week for Justin Thomas last year. He edged out Luke List in a playoff to win the title and he is teeing it up looking to retain the crown. There are still some decent players looking to dethrone him.
Recent Winners
2018 – Justin Thomas
2017 – Rickie Fowler
2016 – Adam Scott
2015 – Padraig Harrington
2014 – Russell Henley
2013 – Michael Thompson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Rory Sabbatini
2010 – Camilo Villegas
2009 – YE Yang
The Course
As always it is the PGA National course which stages the tournament this week. The whole course is great but holes 15, 16 and 17 are the centre of attention. They are the Bear Trap and play over par near enough every year. The course is a par 70 which measures 7,140 yards and is a real test of a player’s bottle and heart.
The wind is in play around here and the majority of the holes either have water or troublesome bunkers on them. This is a real ball striker’s golf course where control of the ball is paramount. There has been a fair bit of rain in the area in the lead up to the tournament so the course could play soft in the early stages.
The Field
Usually there are big names everywhere we look in this tournament. The field is not as deep as usual this time around but it does contain the last three champions in Justin Thomas, who defends the title, Rickie Fowler and Adam Scott. 2015 winner Padraig Harrington pulled out in the lead up to the week as he continues his recovery from injury.
Major champions Brooks Koepka, Sergio Garcia and Webb Simpson also tee it up this week, as do former Phoenix champion Gary Woodland, Cameron Smith and the man beaten in the playoff here last year Luke List. Alex Noren heads the European charge while Emiliano Grillo and Byeong-Hun An also have tee times.
Market Leaders
Justin Thomas is an 11/2 shot to retain the title this week. He was close to winning the Genesis Open a couple of weeks ago and while he wasn’t bang on in Mexico, he still shot a 62 along the way. He is a leading contender this week although even in this field the price is nothing to write home about. To make any cash he’ll need to win and with that in mind the price is fair at best.
Rickie Fowler is the second favourite to win the tournament. He is an 11/1 shot to regain the title he won a couple of years ago. He landed the title in Phoenix earlier in the season and as I mentioned last week the confidence he should have got from that should see him have a big season. A lot went on for him in Mexico last week though so it might be that this isn’t the week to get stuck into him.
Brooks Koepka continues to be an enigma. He’s an animal in the majors but rarely shows his head in the business end of a tour event and at 14/1 I’m not massively interested in backing him to change that this week, on a course where his length is nullified in the main. Its softness this time around might make him more competitive but I don’t see him winning and others offer much better each way appeal.
There are a trio of players at 16/1 this week and a top class threesome at that. Sergio Garcia, former winner Adam Scott and Gary Woodland make up the trio. I’m not sure I fancy Garcia this week but the other two would be interesting if it wasn’t for the fact that they are a little on the short side. Woodland has declared his love for this course which probably makes him the most attractive of the three but 16/1 doesn’t really float my boat. It is 25/1 bar.
[the_ad_group id=”3624″]
Main Bets
I was on Daniel Berger in his tournament a few years ago when he got done up by Paddy Harrington in a playoff and I’m happy to be on him again here. It is the worst kept secret in golf that Berger loves Bermuda greens and that is what he gets this week. Nobody putted better than him in Puerto Rico last week which is a massive positive because any waywardness off the tee could be negated by the softer course here making the fairways play a little wider. Berger had a good week last week and should be right in the mix here.
Luke List has an incredible record around here over the last few years. He also lost in a playoff, his to Justin Thomas last year, and is one of few players to be cumulatively under par around here over a sustained period. He was inside the top 15 at Riviera which is no mean effort and has shared his enjoyment of this track verbally in the media. I always think an enjoyment or a declaration of love for a tough test is a positive because this is a real challenge. He’s my second main bet.
Outsiders
Jason Kokrak ticks a lot of boxes this week not least the ball striking one where he sits just outside the top 10. He has a little bit extra length which might go down well with the course playing soft this week. Kokrak has three top 20 finishes this season and should come on again now we are in Florida. He’s 66/1 which looks a big price to me when we factor in that the statistics suggest he should be much shorter.
I’ve backed Jim Furyk a couple of times this season already and I can see myself backing him on all of the tough tests on the PGA Tour in 2019 because I believe that now his Ryder Cup duties are over we are going to see him back to his best. The tougher the test the more I like Furyk and there are no tougher tests than this one. Length is not an issue this week so there is no inconvenience to him here. He’s too big at three figures here.
Martin Kaymer was fourth around here a couple of years ago and I fancy he could be a big price this week. There have been plenty of signs in Europe recently that the German is beginning to hit the ball a lot better and I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a big week and a win in him soon. Much like Furyk he is another who loves it tough. The tougher the course the better he tends to play. He’s 125/1 this week and there is just enough juice in that price to lure me in.
Tips
Back D.Berger to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back J.Kokrak to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back L.List to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back J.Furyk to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back M.Kaymer to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2019
