We are deep in the middle of major season and the third of four takes place this week when the iconic Pebble Beach Links host the best players in the world in the US Open, the first time it has staged the event since 2010.
Brooks Koepka will go in search of a third US Open title in a row having won it for a second time at Shinnecock Hills 12 months ago. A top class field descends on California this week looking to take the title in what should be a belting week of action.
Recent Winners
2018 – Brooks Koepka
2017 – Brooks Koepka
2016 – Dustin Johnson
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Martin Kaymer
2013 – Justin Rose
2012 – Webb Simpson
2011 – Rory McIlroy
2010 – Graeme McDowell
2009 – Lucas Glover
The Course
Pebble Beach Golf Links is the venue this week. This course hosts a PGA Tour event every year but the set up for this tournament will be much tougher than the players who tee it up in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am will be used to it being. The fairways will be a lot tighter and the rough much thicker so this very much becomes a test of accuracy.
At just 7,075 yards, 35 yards longer than in 2010 and a par of 71 as opposed to 72 when the amateurs join the professionals here earlier in the year (the second hole is a par 4 in this tournament), it is not a course that needs length on your side like most US Open tracks these days. The defence of this course is the wind and the tiny greens. The course is going to play fast and firm this week and so playing from the fairways is a must to avoid trouble around the greens. Keep good wind players on side.
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The Field
There are plenty of stories in the field this week. Brooks Koepka will be looking for a three-peat in the US Open which would be unheard of in modern times while Tiger Woods will be looking for a second major of the year and to move one closer to Jack Nicklaus’ record and Phil Mickelson has another chance to complete the career Grand Slam – possibly his last realistic chance to do that.
Other leading lights in the field this week are Rory McIlroy, looking to back up his Canadian Open victory, Dustin Johnson, twice a winner around Pebble Beach and who should have won this here in 2010, Graeme McDowell, the defending champion on this course as well as the likes of Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Justin Thomas and Adam Scott who are all looking for their second major titles.
Market Leaders
It is 9/1 the field this week with Dustin Johnson penned in at the top of the betting market. As I eluded to above he has won twice around here and held a three shot lead on this track in 2010 only to shoot a final round 82 and end up nowhere near the title. All that makes him a very solid favourite to me but he is pretty short given the company this week and I still maintain I’m unsure about him after his split from long-time coach Claude Harmon III.
Rory McIlroy is a shade bigger at 19/2. He should be full of confidence after taking apart the Canadian Open last week but conditions there and here will be chalk and cheese. Nevertheless, he looks to be hitting the ball well and putted nicely last week so if he can do that here he will have every chance. He hasn’t been a factor in the first two majors of the year though which is a concern when taking a single figure price.
If Brooks Koepka is to win a third US Open in succession he will do it as a 10/1 shot. Koepka has already won on a links type course at Erin Hills although the length of that one played into his hands somewhat and many of his strengths here are negated. He should still be a leading light but you could write off three quarters of the field in the two US Opens he won. That isn’t the case here so he too could be a trifle skinny.
Tiger Woods will start off his quest for a second Pebble Beach US Open success as a 13/1 shot. We saw at The Masters that he has the game to take care of some insanely strong fields. Augusta plays to his strengths though whereas US Open tracks don’t tend to these days. It will help that he isn’t hitting driver all the time here but other than the short game, the skills needed to prosper on this golf course in these conditions, other are better at than Tiger at the present time. It is 18/1 bar.
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Main Bets
I’ll take three main bets this week with the first of them being a former winner of this title in Webb Simpson. The 2012 winner is in decent form at the minute as he showed in Canada last week when he went three rounds without a bogey on a tricky test. One of the reasons for that was his insane scrambling and that will stand him in good stead here because the winner will have to scramble well. The fact that Simpson is ranked 20 in strokes gained approaching the green suggests he will have the edge on many into the greens and he is second in scrambling which should see him bypass plenty too. At 40/1 he’s a standout bet.
Brandt Snedeker loves Poa Annua greens and that is exactly what he has got here. He got that last week in Canada where he finished in a lofty position where he fired himself into contention with a second round of 60. Clearly he won’t be shooting that sort of number here but having won the AT&T Pro-Am round here on two occasions he knows his way to glory. He putted very well last week which was key. His iron play is always immaculate so as long as he doesn’t miss his spots too often off the tee he is going to be right in the mix you feel. His record alone makes him a bet here.
Another man who is worth backing on his Pebble Beach record on its own is Phil Mickelson. He has won round here five times and was fourth when the US Open was last at this track. He has made no secret of his love for the course even though his waywardness would count against him here. There is something about the place that brings his best golf out though and with this being realistically his final chance of winning the career Grand Slam I’m expecting him to have done everything to make sure he peaks over these four days. We know he has the short game to compete around here. If he can just be conservative off the tee this place could be the ticket to the Holy Grail.
Outsiders
I’ll throw darts at four men at big prices with the first of those being Marc Leishman. I’ve been hoping he would find some form approaching this tournament because he is another who is a perfect fit for the place. He is fine in the wind, a good links player and has the short game and the iron play to fire his way into contention. He led the field in strokes gained around the green at Muirfield Village a few weeks ago and was in the top 10 for strokes into the green which bodes well. He has excellent form in this part of the world and showed all his class at the start of the year. Anyone is allowed a quiet few months but with his form returning now is a good time to get on the Australian.
Matt Wallace is another player in decent nick and while he’ll be having his first spin around Pebble Beach there is nothing he should fear. He showed at Bethpage Black that he can contend in these big events and the fact he was deep in the mix in the British Masters on a links course just highlights his comfort in the wind. Wallace probably doesn’t excel in any part of the game but neither does he have any weaknesses. His determination to be the best is very much a strength of his though and if he can keep the ball in play this week he should emulate his performance in the USPGA at the very least.
Tyrrell Hatton has a decent links record which means he is good in windy conditions and he should be nicely suited to this test. He doesn’t have to smoke it off the tee here so if he can let the strength of his game – his iron play – come to the fore then he should enjoy a very good week. Hatton has a similar profile to Graeme McDowell who won here nine years ago and with a decent spin at Colonial a few weeks ago there are signs he is hitting form at the right time. His links record alone makes him a big price at 125/1.
Another man comfortable in the wind is Thorbjorn Olesen. He is another one who from the second shot in is a very accomplished player so if he can tighten up off the tee, which with length not an issue here he should be capable of, then I see him going well. Olesen has won the Dunhill Links in the past which highlights his credentials in windy conditions and we’ve seen plenty of times over the last 12 months that when he is hot he is a tough nut to crack. He has a good enough short game to keep bogeys off the card and if he can dial a few irons in it could all be there for a big week at a huge price.
Tips
Back W.Simpson to win US Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 41.00 with Betway (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back T.Hatton to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back T.Olesen to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 351.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back B.Snedeker to win US Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back P.Mickelson to win US Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Leishman to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 76.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Wallace to win US Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
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