The final WGC event of the year takes place this week with a number of the best players in the world heading out to China for the HSBC Champions, a tournament which counts on the PGA Tour, European Tour and Asian Tour among others.
There are plenty of riches to be had for the player who can score the lowest this week. Xander Schauffele enjoyed all of them when he won 12 months ago and he is back in Asia to attempt to defend the title.
Recent Winners
2018 – Xander Schauffele
2017 – Justin Rose
2016 – Hideki Matsuyama
2015 – Russell Knox
2014 – Bubba Watson
2013 – Dustin Johnson
2012 – Ian Poulter
2011 – Martin Kaymer
2010 – Francesco Molinari
2009 – Phil Mickelson
The Course
It is the Sheshan International Golf Club that we are at once again this week. The tournament moved here in 2013 and while power looked to be the order of the day initially, the longer it has gone on the more the quality ball strikers have come to the fore. The shorter hitters still find it tough round here but you don’t have to monster it off the tee to be successful here as the likes of Russell Knox and Justin Rose have proven.
The track is a par 72 which has been lengthened slightly to 7,264 yards. One of the reasons why the big hitters don’t have it all their own way around here is because the par 5s are among the toughest the professionals will play. The key to success here is a smart game off the tee with pinpoint iron play and a putter that gets hot on these undulating greens.
The Field
78 players line up this week in a tournament which offers no cut to those competing. There are a number of big players who are not here who include Tiger Woods, Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson but one star who is here is Rory McIlroy and he headlines the field but The Open champion Shane Lowry brings a major winning feel to the event.
The defending champion Xander Schauffele is in the field while the Asian star Hideki Matsuyama will be looking to back up a fine week in Tokyo with another showing here. Justin Rose, Paul Casey and Tommy Fleetwood lead the English charge while the likes of Tony Finau and Patrick Reed offer up more of an American feel. Adam Scott and Cameron Smith will hope for a big week from down under.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy begins the tournament as a 6/1 favourite. Bookmakers have reported that they have seen plenty of money for Rory this week and in many ways the course suits his strengths but I wonder how much juice there is in that price. There is certainly no margin for a slow start and at this price you would really need him to win the event if you are going to properly coin it in. I’m not sure that is guaranteed in this company so he isn’t for me.
Hideki Matsuyama has won around here in the past and he is 12/1 to do it again. My immediate concern over the Japanese player is how much last week will have taken out of him and whether all his eggs went into the basket of winning in front of a home crowd. The other concern is that he doesn’t win nearly as much as a man with his ball striking ability should do and while you’ll make a bit if he places better value lies elsewhere.
The defending champion Xander Schauffele is 14/1 to take the title down again. I’ve never been a fan of backing a defending champion as a rule and when I was on him at 50/1 last year I would be reluctant to take him at barely a quarter of the price even allowing for one or two who are missing this week. His form hasn’t been fantastic in 2019 either so there is enough to put me off him I must say.
Justin Rose tees off as a 16/1 shot to win the title once again this week. It might be that returning to the scene of a former win will bring out the best in him but you would have to suggest it will need to because he has been very inconsistent in recent times, none more so than in Italy recently when he was going nicely then shot a seven over third round and a seven under final round. He’s too inconsistent for me at this price. It is 20/1 bar.
Main Bets
Bernd Wiesberger currently heads the Race to Dubai standings on the European Tour and he can take a huge stride towards that title this week when he tees it up in the HSBC Champions. He is my first main bet. I think he is a leading runner here. He has won twice in Asia on the European Tour in his career and has an all-round super record in the continent with his solid driving and excellent iron play. It is that iron play which makes him so good but his short game has come on leaps and bounds since his injury which is why he has won no fewer than three times this year. He is long enough off the tee here to be competitive as shown with finishes of 17-35-9 here in the past. He’s never been better than right now and at 33/1 he’s a great chance.
I watched with interest when Billy Horschel came over to the UK to take part in the BMW PGA Championship and one thing I took from an excellent week for him was how he stressed in nearly every interview that he wants to contend globally. Since then he has gone to Tokyo and made the top 10 and he looks to be going in the right direction. His long game is usually very reliable and at Wentworth his short game really caught the eye. If it all comes together here he can be a leading runner. He finished just outside the top 10 here last year but looks in better touch now. He should go close.
Outsiders
I’ll plump for a couple of outsiders this week as well with Jason Kokrak the first of those. He came 16th here in his only previous appearance which was in 2016 and I think it is fair to say he is a much better player now and the field is nothing like as good at the same time. Those two combined should lead to a better performance from him. His form in recent times hasn’t been fantastic but although he did nothing special last week he blew away the cobwebs and as such he should be ready to go here on a course that suits his needs.
Victor Perez won in Asia on the Challenge Tour last season, seeing off Robert MacIntyre in the process, which was no mean effort and then on his European Tour bow he ran Aaron Rai close in Hong Kong, so conditions in this part of the world clearly suit him which is always a positive. He has gone from strength to strength over his maiden campaign on the European Tour, with the highlight being his win at the Dunhill Links. For three rounds in the Open de France he was ticking along nicely but the going for too tough for him on the Sunday. He is having to go against the lack of course experience here but he drives the ball nicely, showed in Scotland that he has a nice touch on and around the greens and should be capable of giving us a monster run at a monster price.
Tips
Back B.Wiesberger to win WGC HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back B.Horschel to win WGC HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back J.Kokrak to win WGC HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betway (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back V.Perez to win WGC HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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Nice call on Perez Kev. Had the flat stick been firing yesterday (his three ball partners were -6 -7)you may well have called a massive price winner. Still, the place money is non to shabby.
Great Call.
Cheers mate. Hoping the door to a winner opens soon!