The final WGC event of the season takes place this week with 64 of the leading golfers in the world heading across to the US to battle it out for the WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational. They will head to a different golf course to usual with the event moving from Firestone to TPC Southwind, home of the former regular tour event the St Jude Classic.
Justin Thomas tore Firestone apart last season in the final outing there while Dustin Johnson won the St Jude Classic, so in a way you could argue we have two men defending around here this week. Both will have to play well to do that though.
Former Winners (St Jude Classic)
2018 – Dustin Johnson
2017 – Daniel Berger
2016 – Daniel Berger
2015 – Fabian Gomez
2014 – Ben Crane
2013 – Harris English
2012 – Dustin Johnson
2011 – Harrison Frazar
2010 – Lee Westwood
2009 – Brian Gay
The Course
TPC Southwind will be familiar to all golf fans and gamers alike. Fans of the sport will have seen this track used regularly throughout the PGA Tour scene while console players will have torn it apart on video games too. It is a second shot golf course with accuracy into very small greens the overriding ingredient to score well here.
The track is a par 70 which stretches out to 7,237 yards and with relatively tight fairways and juicy bermudagrass rough around the greens playing this one from the short stuff is very much the way forward. A look at the roll of honour would suggest we are looking for those capable of putting on a ball striking clinic, not necessarily the best putters.
The Field
69 men qualified for an invitation to the tournament and all but six of them have accepted. The Open champion Shane Lowry is still rightly celebrating his win while Tiger Woods, Rickie Fowler, Francesco Molinari, Lee Westwood and Bernd Wiesberger didn’t seem to fancy the job which is a bit of a shame.
We are left with the major man himself in Brooks Koepka, runner up to Lowry last week in Tommy Fleetwood, the man who was meant to win last week in Rory McIlroy and the defending champion around here Dustin Johnson to headline the field while the likes of Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Tony Finau, Jordan Spieth and Matt Kuchar are among the men looking for a monster weekend to enhance their FedEx Cup position heading into the reduced length play-offs in a fortnight.
Market Leaders
If you shop around you can get 10/1 on both Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy this week and while both are worthy of their lofty position in the market you can pick holes in the pair of then. Johnson hasn’t looked anything like the same since he split with his coach Claude Harmon III while McIlroy has to put the disappointment of that emotional let-down last week behind him. I’m not saying neither will win but at 10/1 you would like stronger cases for the both of them for sure.
Brooks Koepka is a point bigger at 11/1 and you would think he has the tools to go well this week. That will all depend on whether his putter can heat up but if it can he could be the man to beat, even allowing for his indifferent record away from the majors. He put in a ball striking clinic around Portrush last week but could get nothing to go in. I’m expecting that to be different here but the price is a little on the tight side for me.
Jon Rahm is a 12/1 poke to win the tournament. I’m not sure if this course plays to his strengths, although to be fair to the big Spaniard he is becoming a master of playing well when his strengths are not in play. There is a really big win in Rahm soon the way he is hitting the ball but I fancy it might come on a longer course and maybe when he’s back in Europe. The 12/1 is only a fair price and therefore he isn’t for me this week.
Main Bets
I was impressed with Justin Rose at Portrush last week and while he fell away in the final round there weren’t many who didn’t. Rose has shown in the past that on tough links days he doesn’t have the skill set to stay in the game but when the weather was calm for the first three days he put himself right in contention in a style of the game that doesn’t always suit his strengths. I’ve been waiting for Rose to put all facets of his game together and I’m delighted to see him doing so. He is brilliant from tee-to-green and given the improvements he has made with the putter, much of which we saw last week, he is my main bet at 22/1.
I’m also going to take his best friend Henrik Stenson again too because I am absolutely convinced the Swede will be winning tournaments soon. He is absolutely flushing it from tee-to-green and it is only a matter of time before the putter cooperates and when it does we could very well see the Stenson which won The Open in that amazing fashion three years ago. Stenson has been there or thereabouts until the final round in Portrush for the last few weeks. These small greens allow for putts to be holed and with Henrik tearing the course in half off the tee I expect him to go very well here.
Outsiders
This is always a track that I believe Sergio Garcia should go well on. His long game is of sufficient quality that he can lap beaten runners with that and while there is no doubt he has been in a rut since he won The Masters, there were signs at Portrush last week that he is beginning to warm to the task once again. It won’t take much for Garcia to contend here because I expect him to give himself a whole stack of chances and if he can hole a few he could be right there come the business end.
Alex Noren produced a much better showing last week which was good to see because he has had a rotten year. He is someone who will go away and work hard on his game when things aren’t going well and when the signs are that he is hitting it well he is always one to keep on side. He was just outside the top 10 last week which was encouraging based on the year he has had. There aren’t many players better than Noren in the modern game with an iron in their hand so if he can keep it in play off the tee, and signs last week were that his long game is beginning to come good, then I fancy he can give us a right good go at a three figure price.
Tips
Back J.Rose to win WGC St Jude Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back H.Stenson to win WGC St Jude Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back S.Garcia to win WGC St Jude Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Noren to win WGC St Jude Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
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