There is one place left in the Premier League next season and four teams have the chance of filling it. All they have to do is negotiate the nerve-racking end of season lottery that many consider the Sky Bet Championship Play-offs to be.
The four teams involved in the shootout for the Premier League have all known their fate for a few weeks so nobody can cite a lack of preparation for a reason not to come through. Once again it will be all about who can hold their nerve when it really matters.
The Teams
Brentford were the team who finished one place off the automatic promotion places which is so often considered the worst place to be. They were out of chance of going up automatically from a good five or six games out this season though so it isn’t like they nearly missed out as they did last year when they came out of the top two contention on the final day of the campaign. The Bees will be hoping that they can use the disappointment and the experience of last season to fire them through these play-offs, but their fans won’t need reminding that their history in these things is pretty ordinary. They are the form team going in though and in Ivan Toney have the leading goalscorer in the division.
Swansea City were involved in the automatic promotion race for much of the campaign but couldn’t find enough wins coming home to stay with the pace, eventually having to settle for fourth place in the table. This is their second successive campaign in the play-offs after missing out to Brentford in the semi-finals last season, so the very least they will be out to achieve is to go one better and make the Wembley final. This remains a young Swansea side who have done well to be as high as they have this season but there is just a feeling that the games might have caught up with them and that they may have run their race. Steve Cooper will need to have used the nine days between the end of the season and the play-offs starting very well to get Swansea up here.
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The surprise team in the play-offs this season are Barnsley. After only remaining in the Championship on the final day of last term, they have improved massively under Valerien Ismael and have powered their way into the postseason. They have a very unique, high pressing yet direct style, which has caused a lot of teams problems this season, although they have lost both matches against their semi-final opponents Swansea which could throw up an interesting dynamic. I hate the saying that a team has nothing to lose in an event like this but if there is one who falls into that category it would be Barnsley, although don’t tell Ismael and his team that! In Daryl Dike, the Tykes have a form horse up front which could be significant.
AFC Bournemouth have already seen the other two sides they dropped into the Sky Bet Championship with rebound and go back to the Premier League automatically so they might well think the pressure is on them to come through the play-offs and join them. Bournemouth are among the ante-post favourites to bounce straight back this season but even the most ardent Cherries fan would struggle to suggest there was a time when that looked on. At one stage it looked like they might not even make the play-offs but a decent run of form after Jonathan Woodgate was appointed eased those concerns. They did lose their last three matches in the regular season though which isn’t ideal. You could argue they had their top six place secured by then but form isn’t the easiest tap to switch on and off.
Betting
The promotion odds would suggest that the team who wins the semi-final between Brentford and AFC Bournemouth will be the team who will be promoted and I think I go along with that. I just think they will have a little extra quality for whichever of the other two comes through in the showpiece event at Wembley. I think that team will be Brentford who won’t just have the added quality in the key areas but they will have the experience of having been here before nine months ago.
Swansea lack an out and out goal threat for me while Barnsley have done ever so well but I’m not convinced their style will be suited to the wide expanses of Wembley so I do think the winner will come from the other semi-final and as I say I think that will be Brentford. I get all the doubts over their bottle when it matters but it is Brentford who carry winning form into the play-offs with them and since Thomas Frank switched formation and started playing Christian Dalsgaard between the centre backs they have looked a much better side at the back, which has allowed them to express themselves up front. There remains no doubt in my mind that individually Brentford are the best team of the four so I’ll take the 6/4 that they go up.
Tips
WON – Back Brentford to win promotion for a 2/10 stake at 2.50 with 888sport
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