The European Tour leaves the UK this week for one of the most iconic courses used all season as some of the leading lights of European golf head to Spain for the Andalucia Masters at Valderrama. This is one of the most coveted tracks on the circuit so everyone will be eager to win.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout won the tournament last year but such is all the travel and quarantine restrictions in place in the world at present he isn’t here to defend his title so we are guaranteed a new champion.
Recent Winners
2019 – Christiaan Bezuidenhout
2018 – Sergio Garcia
2017 – Sergio Garcia
The Course
We are back at the Real Club Valderrama this week. The track is a par 71 which measures 7,028 yards so it isn’t overly long but it is very much a place where the pure ball strikers shine. You need a good short game around here too because all the greens have run off areas but it is a track to be played from the short grass, especially this time of year where the rough might have a bit of juice to it. This is usually a high scoring tournament.
We are back to normal golf this week. The UK Swing ultimately came down to who could biff it the furthest and make the most of it but this will be a properly prepared course and the undulating fairways mean only those who are hitting the ball sweetly will score around here. Statistics wise we are looking at greens in regulation or strokes gained tee to green. Generally this course produces a top class winner.
The Field
With players having to be in America soon to quarantine in order to play in the US Open or already being there for the PGA Tour play-offs it was never going to be easy for a decent field to be assembled here but to be fair to the European Tour it isn’t a bad one. It has a major champion in it in Martin Kaymer as well as four of the five UK Swing winners in Andy Sullivan, Romain Langasque, Renato Paratore and last week’s winner Rasmus Hojgaard.
Seasoned European Tour stars are also here in the form of Bernd Wiesberger, Lee Westwood, Joost Luiten and Haotong Li while some of the emerging stars of this level are also teeing it up such as Robert MacIntyre, Marcus Kinhult, Victor Perez and Thomas Detry. Throw in some Spanish flavour courtesy of Jorge Campillo, Adrian Otaegui and Pablo Larrazabal and pretty much every base is covered here.
Market Leaders
We have co-favourites of five heading into the week at 14/1. They are last week’s winner Rasmus Hojgaard, Thomas Detry, Bernd Wiesberger, Martin Kaymer and the English Championship winner Andy Sullivan. I’m no fan of backing the winner the week before so that is Hojgaard out of my calculations while Kaymer looks like he has completely forgotten how to win so he’s gone and I’m still waiting for Detry to win before I can side with him. Wiesberger and Sullivan have decent claims to be fair although both are a little on the skinny side price wise.
Joost Luiten is next in the betting at 20/1. He has done just about everything around here except win having come second twice and fifth on another occasion as well as two top 20 efforts as well. The big concern here is the form he is in. It isn’t so much that he has finished down the fields but he hasn’t really scored on courses which were there for the taking so he might not be hitting the ball as purely as he would need to. I respect his record here but he isn’t for me.
Haotong Li and Lee Westwood come next at 22/1. Both men are top class but Li seems to fair better on the longer and more open tracks rather than these tight and fiddly ones so that would be a concern. Westwood might well have been waiting for this week as his game probably isn’t cut out for low scoring events like we’ve had on the UK Swing. He could well be one to watch over the coming weeks and months.
Main Bets
Jorge Campillo looks my idea of the winner this week. He looks to be trending into a nice groove in his game once again. It stands to reason that he needed the USPGA Championship and the first UK Swing event back to get the rust out of his game and now he returns to home soil with successive top 10 finishes under his belt. Campillo finished 15th here last year and has already won the Qatar Masters this year. His confidence looks to be returning to something like it was when he won in Doha and with his skill set very much in tune for this test I expect a very big showing.
Wade Ormsby has already won for me in Hong Kong this season and I’m hoping he goes well here too. Ormsby looks perfect for this test. He isn’t long off the tee but that isn’t the challenge here. Positioning the golf ball and striking it purely is the order of the day and he does both very well indeed. He isn’t the worst putter in the world and already has a top five to his name on this track. The wind is set to blow this week which is going to make control of the golf ball even more paramount and on that alone he will have most of this field taken care of. I think Ormsby can be much more than a dark horse around here.
Outsiders
Max Kieffer is another player who should have the tools for the test this week and he feels overpriced at 100/1. Kieffer is a tee to green animal who had a couple of very good showings in the UK Swing to prime him up nicely for this test. The German was fifth here a couple of years ago and with his swing and long game it is amazing he is yet to win a title at this level. This is a place that has graced maidens in the past and if Kieffer can get a few putts to track the hole this might be the week that his duck finally gets broken.
Alejandro Canizares is another who has the skill set for this course and it is no surprise that he has three top 20s in the last five years. It is fair to say he might not be the player that he once was but we wouldn’t be getting 200/1 if he was. While some will have to fine tune their game from the aggressive see the flag and bash it at it golf that they’ve been playing recently, the Spaniard will be all too aware of the task at hand here. Those low scoring events have never really suited Canizares but these strategy and precision tests certainly do. If home conditions inspire him he might be a big price.
Tips
Back J.Campillo to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back M.Kieffer to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Canizares to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back W.Ormsby to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
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