The PGA Tour remains in Florida this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, always a popular event with players, spectators and TV watchers alike, not least for the name the event carries but also the excellent test of golf that is provided.
Francesco Molinari finally landed this title last year having threatened to do so for a while, and he is back to attempt to make a successful defence. Even though there is a marquee event next week, a top quality cast list is out to deny him.
Recent Winners
2019 – Francesco Molinari
2018 – Rory McIlroy
2017 – Marc Leishman
2016 – Jason Day
2015 – Matt Every
2014 – Matt Every
2013 – Tiger Woods
2012 – Tiger Woods
2011 – Martin Laird
2010 – Ernie Els
The Course
We are back at the famous and wonderful Bay Hill Golf Club and Lodge this week where we are watching the greats of the game battle it out on a par 72 track which measures 7,454 yards for just the second time. The extra length did little to halt the scoring last year and with softer early conditions another week of low scoring is anticipated despite the potential to dry out the greens to a pretty fast speed.
They say this is an all-round test of golf and that is perfectly true. There is the belief it has got easier off the tee but with the amount of water waiting for errant tee shots around here I don’t buy any of that. It is very much a second shot golf course because precision into these strongly guarded greens is a necessity. They are small greens though so scrambling still remains another key requirement around here.
The Field
Last week there was only one member of the top 10 in the world in the field for The Honda Classic, but that is not the case this week as we are loaded with those players. World number one Rory McIlroy headlines the field this week and he is joined by European counterparts Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose, Paul Casey, Henrik Stenson and Matthew Fitzpatrick among others.
The one name missing from the draw is Tiger Woods, a regular at Bay Hill but who is resting up ahead of The Players and the WGC Matchplay later this month. Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Reed are leading Americans in the field while the international contingent includes the winner at PGA National last week in the form of Sungjae Im, as well as Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama, Marc Leishman and Jason Day.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is the 5/1 favourite to win this title for a second time. He is probably the most likely winner but in no way is he a certainty in this standard of field so he isn’t going to be for me. I wouldn’t want to be opposing him in any match bets or anything because we’ve seen him fly home on Sundays and snatch a decent finish from nowhere. You need a guarantee he’ll win to get involved at this price and I’m not sure that exists. He’s not for me.
Tommy Fleetwood was the victim of some absolute nonsense last week but he is the 14/1 second favourite to win this tournament. He was a couple of shots away from forcing a playoff last week but he didn’t have his best work tee to green with him on Sunday and there is no getting away from the fact that is a concern. He’ll win on the PGA Tour before too long but given all the rubbish of last week there might be a little too much scrutiny on him here.
Bryson DeChambeau is an 18/1 shot to win the tournament this week. He went close here in 2018 and was runner-up in the WGC Mexico a couple of weeks ago which added on to a T5 at Riviera earlier in the campaign. DeChambeau has a wonderful tee to green game right now but I’ve always had my reservations about his short game in this sort of company. If that is in good order he could go very close but I’d want a slightly higher price to find out.
Hideki Matsuyama and Xander Schauffele are 20/1 pokes to win the tournament. Matsuyama arrives at these tournaments with every chance of winning it so often but rarely gets the job done which is more than a minor concern and enough to pass him over. Schauffele is a debutant around here which isn’t exactly a negative but it isn’t a positive either. He is second in strokes gained tee to green on the Tour which very much is a positive as his fourth rank in scrambling but he’s a little short as a debutant. It is 22/1 bar.
Main Bets
After agonising for far too long over who to drop I’ve gone with three main bets, the first of which is the Farmers Insurance Open champion and previous winner here in Marc Leishman. The Australian has the ideal skillset for Bay Hill so it is no surprise that he has won around here in the past. He hit the ball brilliantly at Torrey Pines and what stood out there was the clutch putts he holed down the stretch that week. We know he can handle these greens so that is a positive. He’s had two relative no shows since winning the Farmers but you either take to Mexico or you don’t. I’m not holding that as a negative and he’s forgiven at Riviera as he won the start before. At 40/1 he’s overpriced in my eyes.
Henrik Stenson showed that he is still world class when he won the Hero World Challenge and he arrives here as a Bay Hill specialist having lived in this part of the world so long that he will know this course like the palm of his hand. Stenson regularly flushes it from tee to green so the only difference maker between a good week and a great one is how his putter operates. If he can’t putt well on these greens after seven top 20s in his last eight starts, four of which being top 10s he’ll never be able to. The only incredible thing about Stenson is that he has never won around here. I’ll pay to see if that changes this week.
Matt Fitzpatrick was the winner of this tournament in waiting 12 months ago but thankfully for me and anyone who follows this site, he left the door open for Francesco Molinari to barge through on the Sunday. That is actually a little harsh. He didn’t leave the door open, Molinari shot an eight-under 64 to win it and if that happens again then c’est la vie. I’ve had Fitzpatrick on my blacklist for a while after he coughed up the Italian Open last year but on a track that suits his skillset like this one does I can’t ignore him anymore. At 45/1 I fancy he can go one better than last year, if a return to familiar greens sorts out his recent putting issues.
Outsiders
Max Homa is a man who is in excellent form at the present time and I’ll pay to see how he goes with that here. The Wells Fargo winner of last season has last four outings of 9-6-14-5 on some really testing tracks so there is nothing to suggest he shouldn’t go well here. A couple of weeks off is a slight concern but it might be the reason we are getting 80/1 on him rather than the 40/1 he might normally be priced up at. You don’t put those form numbers up if you are not hitting the ball well so I’ll pay to see how he goes this week.
Graeme McDowell surprisingly has a poor record around here since he was a runner-up here in 2012. He also has a top 10 finish in 2014 but other than that it has been rice and beans for him on this course. He is a winner this season though and he has made no secret of his wish list over the remainder of the year, not least the Ryder Cup team so he will probably need another win worldwide somewhere or some real consistency at the very least. That can all start with a big showing here at a silly price.
Talking of silly prices the price on Robby Shelton is bordering on the crazy. If you think back to earlier in the season I was taking him every week in the belief that he was going to go in at some point. That didn’t happen so I left him during that tough west coast swing but I saw good signs again last week. There is no weakness in his bag and a top 12 finish at PGA National is anything but shabby and should he build on that he should have every chance of a decent finish at a monster price.
Tips
PLACED – Back M.Leishman to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back G.McDowell to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back R.Shelton to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back H.Stenson to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back M.Fitzpatrick to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back M.Homa to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
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