The winner of the flagship tournament on the European Tour will be crowned on Sunday when the BMW PGA Championship final round is played on the West Course at Wentworth, where we look set for another excellent day of golf.
This being a Rolex Series event means that someone is going to walk off the 18th green significantly richer than they were before and such a reward is likely to mean we are treated to lots of drama and tension, particularly with the two finishing holes being par 5s.
Round 3 Recap
We went into the third round with joint leaders and ended it with someone holding a three shot lead but it wasn’t either of the 54 hole leaders who improved to that position. It was Tyrrell Hatton who leads on 14 under from two men seeking the biggest win of their career in JB Hansen and Victor Perez, both of whom are on 11 under. There is a serious quartet of players on 10 under that incude Tommy Fleetood, Patrick Reed and Shane Lowry while Ian Poulter and Eddie Pepperell lurk another shot back on nine under.
We were back in the profit on Saturday as our one bet came in with plenty in hand. We took JB Hansen to get the better of Adri Arnaus in their two ball and although the pair were locked together after 14 holes they went their separate ways after that and Hansen actually managed to win by four shots in the end at a tasty enough 5/4 price to add to the profits we secured for the week in the first round of the event.
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Sunday Betting
We have the outright and finishing positions markets to go at heading into Sunday and given that my outright bets faded on Friday and into Saturday I’m going to have a little nibble at the outright market because although Tyrrell Hatton should win there is plenty of history of leaders being picked up over the last 18 holes and although he is much better on the temperament front it still doesn’t take a huge amount to get him het up and the chasing pack is loaded with quality.
Top of that quality is Tommy Fleetwood who is four back starting the final round but he is threatening something very big. He gave a masterclass of a display of hitting iron shots on Saturday but a stone cold putter meant that he couldn’t get as much out of the round as he should have done but on Sunday when there is no joy for being tentative with the putter I expect him to sort that issue out. Nobody this week has found more greens than Fleetwood so we know creating the chances isn’t going to be a problem. If he gets that putter going and can get a couple under early on and get on a roll he’s in the position in the draw to post a number and get the pressure firmly on Hatton and the rest.
Sunday 2 Balls
As they were on Saturday, the field will go out on two balls on Sunday with the final pairing of Tyrrell Hatton and JB Hansen leaving the first tee at 12.40 BST and the penultimate pair of Victor Perez and David Horsey out 10 minutes prior to that. The marquee pair on the final day is the third to last group out onto the course when Tommy Fleetwood is paired with Patrick Reed for the final 18 holes. If crowds were allowed onto the course then many would probably have been interested in the Lee Westwood and Matt Wallace pairing at 10.30 BST. My bet comes in that second to last two ball.
Victor Perez vs David Horsey
Match tees off at 12.30 BST
The second to last group onto the golf course sees two players who have European Tour titles to their name but who are chasing the biggest win of their career as Victor Perez goes out alongside David Horsey for the final 18 holes.
Both these men have shown a really strong tee to green game this week and that probably isn’t a surprise because it is a strength of their game and they both came in here in pretty decent nick. Where the difference could come is on the greens, and the extra length that Perez has that will allow him to go after the par 5s a little better, and he is killing those this week. Horsey is actually losing strokes to the field with the putter this week which is pretty incredible whereas Perez is just outside the top 10 on strokes gained putting. That extra margin on the greens and the extra yardage off the tee should see Perez beat Horsey if the Frenchman handles his nerves.
Tips
Back T.Fleetwood to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 with Betway (1/5 1-3)
WON – Back V.Perez to beat D.Horsey for a 3/10 stake at 1.95 with Betfred
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