While the first major of the year will be taking most of the attention across the pond, the third leg of the UK swing takes place over this side as some of the better players in Europe move from Birmingham to Hertfordshire for the English Championship.
We’ve seen two really good tournaments on this UK swing thus far and there is no reason to think we will get anything other than another one here. This tournament has been created especially to bring golf out of lockdown so there is no former champion of it.
The Course
We move from one resort course at the Forest of Arden to another at Hanbury Manor this week. The course, around 30 miles north of London, is a wide open and exposed place where iron play looks to be the premium as well as a good short game. This course hasn’t host a European Tour event this century but when it last hosted Lee Westwood and Darren Clarke were both winners here. Barry Lane won on the Seniors Tour recently and shot a 60 here so it is unlikely to be a massive test.
There is water in play on six of the holes and the greens have run off areas so precise iron play and a hot putter is going to be the key to success this week, although with nobody having much prior knowledge of these greens it might be better served to stick with the players that we know are pumping their irons in nice and tight. The course is a par 71 with three par 5s but a couple of par 4s are near enough drivable. It measures 7,042 yards.
The Field
It doesn’t really need mentioning that with the first major of the season taking place in America this week, the field for this tournament isn’t the strongest that it could be. In saying that, the first two winners of the UK swing events, Renato Paratore and Sam Horsfield, are both here. The host of the first one in Lee Westwood is playing this week as are a couple of the rising stars of the European game in Thomas Detry and Rasmus Hojgaard.
More experienced campaigners such as Andy Sullivan, Ross Fisher, Chris Paisley and Richie Ramsay are also in the field this week as are big hitters Ryan Fox and Jordan Smith. There is another appearance for the great Miguel Angel Jimenez while continental Europeans like Matthieu Pavon, Thorbjorn Olesen, Pablo Larrazabal and Guido Migliozzi add a nice additional flavour to a competitive if not elite field.
Market Leaders
Thomas Detry will start out the week as a 12/1 favourite. I highlighted my concerns over him last week about having not won and the way he failed to get up and down on the 72nd hole to deny himself a play-off highlights what I was saying. The Belgian definitely needs to prove to me that he has the mental strength to win before I go in on him at what is a relatively short price even in this sort of field. He’s easily passed on.
Rasmus Hojgaard will start out as a 14/1 second favourite. He has had his chances in both of the first two events on the UK swing but has just faltered at the death and found one or two too good for him. That means the winner in Mauritius earlier this season goes into this tournament off the back of three top 10s in his last four starts either side of lockdown. He’ll be a popular selection but that finish last week was a concern.
Sam Horsfield will be looking to add a second European Tour title to his first one after getting off the mark when winning the Hero Open last week. He may well like what he sees in front of him here as well and if he doesn’t have the emotional and mental comedown that often comes from winning a first tournament you would expect the Manchester-born ace to go very well here. He is another who is likely to be popular at 18/1 but I’m not one for backing the winner from the previous week so I’ll leave him alone.
In theory, Lee Westwood should lead a field like this a merry dance, especially as he is one of few in the field who has course experience up his sleeve. He talked up his lockdown practice ahead of the British Masters to kick off this UK swing but then only just made the cut and finished last over the weekend. He then cited not being comfortable in the bubble so there are more than enough concerns about taking the 20/1, even if he is likely to go very close if he is near his best.
Main Bets
Chris Paisley is my idea of a player who is going to have a good chance to go close this week. He has one of the best short games and putting strokes on the European Tour and with the long game test not as strong as it might otherwise be this week I suspect he has every chance to back up his third placed finish at the Forest of Arden. You would think he needed the week at the British Masters to blow away some cobwebs and that certainly seemed to ring true last week where he ranked 12 for strokes gained tee to green, 9 in strokes gained around the green, 13 in scrambling and 9 in putts per GIR. He looks to be rounding into nice form and is my first main bet this week.
The other one comes in the form of Richie Ramsay who I have been dying to take ever since the UK swing was announced. Ramsay has a very good record on UK tracks whether in England, Scotland or Wales and it was no surprise to see him just outside the top 20 last week, which would have been a lot better had it not been for a poor back nine on the Saturday. Ramsay finished last week third for scrambling and 22 in strokes gained approach. Those two combined should give the Scot every chance of enhancing his fine record in British conditions.
Outsiders
Jack Singh Brar was one that I took out of the Betfred British Masters at Close House on a track that probably didn’t play to the strengths of his short game as much as we would have expected it to. He was in the top 20 in strokes gained approach there and strokes gained putting and they will be big things here. There was more of a test off the tee there than there will be here and a couple of mistakes led to big numbers which is why he was in a tied for 17th. If you had taken the two double bogeys off his card he would have been T7. He took last week off so assuming that he worked on his swing this lover of resort tracks can run this field close.
When you look at the results of Richard Bland you wouldn’t think they were up to much but that is only because he has failed to deliver in the final round of the UK swing so far. He was inside the top 15 heading into the final round at Close House and then last week, where he ranked second in scrambling and 13 at strokes gained putting, he was T7. If he can just produce the goods on a Sunday, and at some point that will come, then his short game skills can see him right in the mix once again.
Tips
Back C.Paisley to win English Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back J.Singh Brar to win English Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back R.Bland to win English Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
Back R.Ramsay to win English Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
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