So much has changed on the golfing landscape in 2020 but one thing which hasn’t altered is that it is the Houston Open that is the warm up tournament for The Masters and that tournament headlines the action across the pond this week.
Lanto Griffin picked up his first win on the PGA Tour by winning this event last year and he will be looking to make a successful defence of his title this week, albeit on a different course to the one he won on the last time this tournament was played.
Recent Winners
2019 – Lanto Griffin
2018 – Ian Poulter
2017 – Russell Henley
2016 – Jim Herman
2015 – J.B Holmes
2014 – Matt Jones
2013 – DA Points
2012 – Hunter Mahan
2011 – Phil Mickelson
2010 – Anthony Kim
The Course
The tournament has moved to the Memorial Park Golf Course this week. The course is only five miles away from downtown Houston and is very different to the ones which have been in play in this tournament when it was the traditional Masters warm up in the past. This track is a par 72 with five par threes and five par fives and can stretch out to as long as 7,432 yards and at this time of year it is likely to play most of that yardage.
The course is said to have large greens and huge run off areas so we are either looking for precise ball strikers this week or players who scramble and putt very well. As ever it won’t do no harm to be hitting from the fairways on an unknown layout but I would imagine length is going to be a key thing especially when you consider there are five par fives. The last time we had a layout like this was at the Zozo Championship where the leaderboard was surrounding by big hitters.
The Field
When you consider we have the long-awaited return to Augusta next week there is a decent enough field on show this week either to look to warm up for the final major of the season or to keep their confidence built up over recent times up heading either to Augusta or for the remainder of the season. Dustin Johnson is the headliner in the field this week while the defending champion Lanto Griffin is also here too.
Other notables in the field are BMW PGA Championship winner Tyrrell Hatton, Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka and Tony Finau while former Masters champions Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott and Zach Johnson will look for a big week ahead of their return to Augusta next week. Relatively newbies to the tour in Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Doc Redman and Sungjae Im are also here while one of Texas’ finest Jordan Spieth will look to find his form here too.
Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson is the favourite this week at 15/2. He probably felt the need to get back in action here having been inactive for a while due to picking up a positive Covid-19 test but whether he is here to genuinely go out and win or just to shake off any rust that might have built up remains to be seen. Clearly he’s good enough to win any time he tees it up but there is enough reason to question his motivation, especially as he will be a leading contender next week, so he isn’t for me.
Tyrrell Hatton has been in great form for the last month or slightly longer but in America he has had this annoying habit of carrying my money and getting right into contention but then having a bad round and bombing down the leaderboard. I’m not saying that will happen this week but the price is a little short at 16/1 to be on when you consider that very well could happen. Hatton is a live outsider next week so how much he’ll want to extend himself here remains to be seen.
Hideki Matsuyama and Tony Finau come next in the betting at 20/1. The latter doesn’t win nearly as much as he should and in the main continues to look shaky when he is in contention so I’ve no massive interest in him at this price. Matsuyama is more interesting but his short game can be very hit or miss. When it is good he’s more than capable of taking this down but when it is off song it can be a huge weakness. That makes me leave him alone. It is 22/1 bar.
Main Bets
I’m not completely convinced that Brooks Koepka is here purely to win but the fact he had a hand in the redesign of the course and that he has contended strongly in the week before a major in the past makes me think that he is well worth backing here at 22/1. Take away the motivation question, where even then I think he’ll think it is important to get four competitive rounds in the book having not played a whole lot recently due to surgery, he ticks every box for this track. He is long, has a good short game and when the putter lights up he can go very low. When he is back up to speed and firing on all cylinders he’ll be going off half this price for events again so I’ll pay to see if he gets there with the W this week.
Doc Redman seems to be trending in the right direction and it is surely only a matter of time before he wins a tournament. 3-4 months ago he didn’t look comfortable when he was in contention but that isn’t the case anymore, he’s now just getting touched off by someone too good for him but that can only go on for so long. Redman is a cracking ball striker but he actually sits high up in the scrambling numbers this week which is likely to be significant here. Redman is a decent player in the wind which is also important and at around the 40/1 marker he is well worth a bet.
Outsiders
Another player who is surely a winner in waiting is Wyndham Clark, the man who was edged out in a play-off in Bermuda last week. That showed us a number of things for this week notably that he can play in breezy conditions and that he is hitting the ball well. We already know that he was a long hitter and that is likely to be a big thing here and when you score well for a few weeks the putting can’t be an issue. This is a stronger field than last week but Clark seems to be improving all the time and having had a couple of tastes of being in contention recently I’m hoping it is third time lucky here.
I’ve a feeling that the short game is going to be a really big thing this week so it is hard to ignore Phil Mickelson. He hasn’t really competed at this level for a while in terms of genuinely being in contention but unlike many others we know he likes to tee it up with intent the week before a major and he might just have his ideal track here. Although he hasn’t been in contention on the PGA Tour for a while, Mickelson has won a couple of times on the Champions Tour which will have done his confidence no harm at all. We know he can play in the wind and if the primary focus is on the short game this week there remains few better in that discipline than the veteran American. I’ll pay to see how well he goes here.
Tips
PLACED – Back B.Koepka to win Houston Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back D.Redman to win Houston Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back W.Clark to win Houston Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Back P.Mickelson to win Houston Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
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