The first round of the PDC Home Tour play-offs concludes on Tuesday evening when the final group of the eight is played out. That means that at the end of the night we will know the identity of both semi-final groups as we close in on the end of the tournament.
Four men will once again take to their home oches to battle it out in a the round robin format where the winner of the group will join Rob Cross, Joe Cullen and Nathan Aspinall in a juicy looking semi-final section on Thursday night.
The Format
The 32 group winners from the first round of groups have been redrawn into eight groups for the second stage of the event. Each winner moves into one of two semi-final groups with the top two from those two groups progressing to form the Championship group which will take place on June 5 where the overall winner will be crowned. Each match from here on in is the best of 11 legs rather than the best of 9 of the first round. Two points are awarded for a win. If players finish level on points then leg difference will decide the outcome. If that cannot separate players then the head to head will settle the group winner. Were three players to be tied on points and leg difference the player with the highest overall average goes through. The entire tournament is being streamed live on PDC.tv, the Sky Sports App and various bookmaker sites.
Monday Recap
The group on Monday night went with the form book with the two best players in it ending up battling it out for top spot in the final match of the evening, where Nathan Aspinall picked up a 6-4 win over Jose de Sousa to edge out the Portuguese. Aspinall won all three matches on the night with de Sousa left with two wins. There was one victory to show for his efforts for Jamie Hughes while Jesus Noguera contributed strongly to the evening but could not come away with a win for his display.
Sadly Jose de Sousa being edged out by Nathan Aspinall meant that our bet on him to win the group did not land. We went into that match looking in a good position with de Sousa having the throw and when he levelled up at 4-4 we just needed a couple of holds of throw and the bet would have landed. Unfortunately the Portuguese threw a dog of two legs and that was pretty much the end of that.
Play-Offs Group 8 Line Up
Jonny Clayton is the highest ranked player in this final group of the opening stage of the play-offs. He came through his first group very nicely, particularly as there were doubts over how well he would fare going into it. He saw off Adam Hunt, Richard North and David Pallett so it wasn’t the hardest group on paper, but he averaged over 90 in all three matches which was a solid enough effort and we know there is plenty more to come from him. If he hits his doubles he’s a worthy favourite in the section.
The second highest ranked player is the German star Max Hopp. He came through his group at the first time of asking in the previous part of the tournament but I’m not overly sure how much we can take from his performance, because the night turned into a farce when Keegan Brown couldn’t compete. You can only beat what is put in front of you though and he did that but I think it is going to need a significant improvement on that level to be competitive here. Hopp is a class act so he does have that in him. He wouldn’t be my first choice for this group but he should be respected.
The relatively unknown Carl Wilkinson is the third highest ranked star on show on Tuesday evening. Few had heard of him going into his first round group but that didn’t stop him winning all three of his matches with a near 95 average for the night, including a 100+ average in his win over Matt Edgar. His other two wins were against Callan Rydz and Steve Beaton so they were legitimate even if they weren’t the most eye catching in the world. The question mark is whether he can perform to that standard again. If he can he is in with a chance here but he’ll need to.
Scott Waites is the final man in the line up. He might have an advantage on everyone else in that he has played two groups. He was clearly improved on his first showing too and knows the task at hand as a result of that. The group Waites won saw him beat Steve Beaton, Ron Meulenkamp and Ross Smith which was a decent night of work, especially as he averaged almost 96 across the course of the three matches. Waites’ ranking has him the lowest of this group but we should remember he had his tour card for a couple of months before the sport was shut down. He’s a huge danger here.
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Outright Betting
I’m not sure how much of an upset it would be if Scott Waites wins this group but he is my pick to do it. He could go a long way to getting the job done if he can win the opening match against Jonny Clayton and if he does do that, then by the time he faces Max Hopp in his final game he might only be searching for legs rather than a win. I respect Jonny Clayton and him having the throw against Waites and Hopp gives him a major advantage but the potential for missed doubles concerns me hugely.
I’m not sure Hopp has the consistency to be a contender in this group and while Wilkinson has to be respected on his effort first time around but there are doubts over whether that was the norm or a freak showing. Given his low ranking the likelihood is that it was the former and if it was he is unlikely to too much of an issue here. Clayton deserves to be the favourite here but Waites looks the better value to me.
Match Betting
I’ll go with a couple of bets over the course of the evening in the match betting. The first of those is for Scott Waites to cover a 1.5 leg handicap against Carl Wilkinson. There should be a gulf between these two unless Wilkinson times his run to perfection once again and assuming that doesn’t happen then with the throw I expect Waites to jump out in front and dominate the match from the start. Waites scores well and there are rarely any mares on his doubles. If Waites does go on and win this match as I expect him to do, I’m not convinced he’ll need a deciding leg to do it with.
The second bet I like is for Jonny Clayton to beat Max Hopp and cover a 1.5 leg handicap in the process. These two have met three times on the tour and Clayton has won the lot. Their first meeting was back in 2016 when Hopp was probably more established than Clayton but their two recent meetings were comfortable victories to Clayton and I expect similar here. I’m not sure where Hopp is better than Clayton so unless he is flawless on his own throw, and he was definitely not that in his opening group, then the Welshman shouldn’t just win this but win it fairly well.
Tips
Back S.Waites to win Play-Offs Group 8 for a 2/10 stake at 3.50 with BetVictor
Back him here:
WON – Back S.Waites (-1.5 legs) to beat C.Wilkinson for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with William Hill
Back him here:
WON – Back J.Clayton (-1.5 legs) to beat M.Hopp for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Coral
Back him here:
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