3.05 Longchamp: Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe
Preview
The big race of the weekend is over at Longchamp where the best middle distance horses do battle in the Arc de Triomphe. Very soft ground has robbed us of what could have been the duel of the season with Aiden O’Brien’s Love being ruled out because of the going. That still leaves Enable, John Gosden’s superstar mare that has won this race twice & was only denied a hat trick last year by the brilliant Waldgeist. She will bid to put that right here but has 14 other rivals aiming to stop her. The first step is to narrow down the field.
Shortlist
RPR & Timeform adjusted ratings have 5 horses clear, the first 3 in the betting plus 2 from left field & I honestly cannot go against that. I had exactly the same 5 on my shortlist; Enable, Stradivarius, Sottsass, Japan & Persian King. Of the others, Sovereign is surely on in there as a pacemaker and both Chacknak & Royal Julius are outclassed. Deidre is now a 6 year old and her form isn’t up to this whilst Way To Paris & Gold Trip have run some decent races this term but have still finished below a few of today’s rivals.
Outsiders
We now get into the rest of the field, all trading at 25/1 or less; Raabihah was the talking horse & did trade as low as 8/1 at one point but this 3 year old has never won about Group 3 company, was slammed in the Vermeille last time when a short priced favourite & the ground has surely gone against her. Serpentine was the brilliant Epsom Derby winner & has been supplemented for the race. She was behind 3 of these last time in the Grand Prix De Paris when held up & a return to front running tactics may be needed. However, the coffin box of 15 hasn’t helped there & the nagging doubt about the ground remains, given he ran no sort of race on debut on his only try on proper soft going. The 1-2 in the Grand Prix De Paris were Mogul & In Swoop, who both look to have been overbet here. Mogul was only 6th in the Epsom Derby & has since been beaten in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur at York. His RPR of 114 last time out was a career best but that is some way short of the best in the race. He’s another with massive ground question marks too. In Swoop, meanwhile, won a German Derby but has done very little else. In fact, he was beaten by Gold Trip earlier in the campaign & only just finished ahead of the same horse last time out. Surely Gold Trip at 40’s represents better value than In Swoop at 10’s, although the latter does have conditions to suit.
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Contenders
So, onto the big 5, there is very little to say about Enable that hasn’t already been said. She is now a 6 year old so it’s hard to keep up the levels she has set but, in honesty, she’s the best horse in the race, has been handed a good draw &, after losing out to Ghaiyyath on reappearance, she’s comfortably won a pair of Group races since. She goes on the ground too but odds of 5/4 don’t appeal so we’ll go elsewhere. Stradivarius is 2nd favourite at around 13/2 but Enable is Gosden’s first choice & she has a poor draw in 14. For sure, she likes soft ground & the fact she’s more of a long distance horse means she’ll definitely stay the trip but does she really have the pace to beat the top middle distance horses? I’m not so sure so I’ll pass. Japan is the last of O’Brien’s 4 but Mogul is Moore’s pick which is a worry for Japan backers. He was 4th in the race last year, is drawn slightly wider than ideal but, as his run last year showed, he can act on the going. He’ll run well without troubling the principles, I feel.
Betting
The first of our 2 bets is the Jean Claude Rouget trained Sottsass. Last year, he went off at 6/1 second favourite to Enable in this & ran a good race to finish 3rd. A solid performance from the then 3 year old who had earlier won the Prix De Jockey Club in fine style & then backed it up by winning the Prix Niel on his next start. His form has been somewhat patchy this term but he’s surely been campaigned with this race in mind & there are signs he’s coming to hand. He typically needs his first run so it was no surprise he was only 4th on reappearance but he then narrowly won the Ganay, still looking like there was much more to come. He then narrowly failed to give 6lbs to the excellent Skalleti before finishing a staying on 4th in the Irish Champion Stakes over a trip shy of his best. In fact, it’s interesting to note he’s only run over a mile and a quarter this season. His 3 best RPRs have been over the 3 further trips he’s faced so that’s a good sign as is his nice draw in 4. His trainer is also in very good form at present and in a race where I feel he only has Enable to beat, I don’t see how he finishes out of the places.
We had the winner of this race last year when siding with the master Andre Fabre & we can’t leave his Persian King out of calculations here either. A risky bet, for sure, given he’s never gone further than a mile and a quarter & he’s a mile specialist but the big question is would Fabre run him if he didn’t think he’d stay? His form cannot be knocked; he’s a winner of 8 of his 12 starts, finishing 2nd on another 3 of those starts. The only time he’s been out of the 2 was 2 starts ago when 4th of 7 to Palace Pier in the Group 1 Jacques de Marois on very heavy ground where he failed to settle. He’s a winner of 3 Group 1’s, was 2nd in the Prix De Jockey Club behind Sottsass last year & has form on this ground. Track form is not to be underestimated as he’s 3 from 3 here including a pair in the very highest company and with the excellent Pierre Charles Boudot in the saddle, he’s too big a price to ignore. If he settles & stays, he’s in the mix. If he fails to stay, we’ll accept our fate but at 16/1, it’s worth paying to find out.
Tips
WON – Back Sottsass (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 9.00 Betfair (⅕ odds 1-4)
PLACED – Back Persian King (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Betfair (⅕ odds 1-4)
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