The PGA Tour continues this week with the Rocket Mortgage Classic, a tournament which has been rescheduled due to the Covid-19 pandemic, but despite being in its early stages is clearly highly thought of to have remained on the schedule.
It might have drawn the short straw calendar wise though but that is of no significance to Nate Lashley who won the title here last year and who will be bidding to defend it, against what has to be said is the weakest field we’ve seen since the restart so far.
Recent Winners
2019 – Nate Lashley
The Course
We are back at the Detroit Golf Club this week where the same composite course as last year is being used. The course being used is a par 72 which measures 7,340 yards which still isn’t overly long by modern standards. It is designed by Donald Ross and most of his courses rely on accuracy into tight greens and good putting techniques on greens which have plenty of slopes on them. There isn’t usually an emphasis off the tee although we have seen three tight ball strikers win the tournaments behind closed doors thus far.
Whenever a course with small greens is in use it is never a bad idea to have players who scramble well on your team. Basically we’re looking at players who excel from the second shot in and who have the ability to go very low because this is likely to turn into a bit of a shootout in the benign conditions that are forecast for the tournament.
The Field
We’ve had some brilliant fields in recent weeks but this one is not as strong. That is understandable with a couple of tournaments at Muirfield Village on the horizon, but there are still some big names on show here. Bryson DeChambeau is probably the biggest around right now but the former Masters champion Patrick Reed and Arnold Palmer Invitational winner Tyrrell Hatton add star quality to proceedings, as does former US Open champion Webb Simpson, the winner of the RBC Heritage a couple of weeks ago.
The young guns have been the theme of the PGA Tour this season and there are plenty of them teeing it up in Detroit. Viktor Hovland is among them as is Sungjae Im. Im is joined by fellow Asian player Hideki Matsuyama and then there are seasoned PGA Tour stars such as Tony Finau, Brandt Snedeker and Jason Day, not to mention Bubba Watson. It is still a decent field but one not quite as loaded as recent weeks.
Market Leaders
Bryson DeChambeau heads the field this week as a 6/1 favourite. He has been there or thereabouts in the first three weeks back but hasn’t got over the line. You would think the longer course would suit his new found length but there are a couple of concerns. This will be his fourth straight week on tour and that’s quite a grind. The other concern is his putting hasn’t really been up to scratch and in a low scoring week that needs to be rectified. He needs to win if you back him at this price and while he might, I don’t think it is a guaranteed. He’s not for me.
Webb Simpson has been chalked up as the second favourite to win the tournament. He can be backed at 12/1 and although he wasn’t intending to have last week off, the fact he did after winning the previous week might not be a bad thing. He has the tools to go well around here but I just wonder if there will be a bit too much made of him pulling out through Covid last week and attending here and that could affect his attention. I’m in no rush to jump in at 12/1 anyway.
Tyrrell Hatton and Patrick Reed are next in the betting at 16/1. On the face of it you would think Hatton is a little short at this price but already this season he has won the Arnold Palmer Invitational and led the RBC Heritage with nine holes to play. He’s shown in the Dunhill Links that he can go low too so he shouldn’t be ruled out. The short game skills of Reed could get him involved in this tournament but whether his long game is good enough at the minute remains to be seen.
Viktor Hovland and Hideki Matsuyama are the other two men who are shorter than 20/1 in the betting. They are both 18/1. Matsuyama should be suited by this test although I don’t recall him winning too many shootouts which would be a concern. Hovland is talked about a lot but his only win on Tour to date is at the lesser level Puerto Rico Open and although he went well last week, he sits at 217 in strokes gained around the green and down at 121 in strokes gained putting. He’s too short on those grounds. It is 22/1 bar.
Main Bets
Doc Redman was second here last year and his game looks to be trending nicely ahead of a return to a place where he is surely going to have some good memories. His three outings since the restart have seen finishes of T58, T21 and T11 so he is improving week on week and that is the case statistically as well. His long game was in excellent touch last week where he hit more than 80% of the greens in regulation and if he does that again this week he will give himself every chance to contend. His putter hasn’t really cooperated so far but we are back on poa annua this week which might help that, plus the field isn’t as strong so he may not lose so many strokes to the field in that discipline. He showed last year that he can go well on these greens and at 40/1 he seems like a decent bet to me.
The other man I like for a main bet this week is JT Poston. Poston made a name for himself when he won the Wyndham Championship just less than a year ago and that is significant here. Both tracks are Donald Ross creations and the big thing about his victory at the Wyndham was that he didn’t bogey a single hole for the week, a near unprecedented achievement. He has the game to go well here too. He sits third on the Tour in total putting and although a missed cut was surprising last week, he recorded top 10s in the two weeks prior to it so he might just have burnt himself out a little. Those two weeks he made the top 10 his long game was in very good order and with one of the best short games in the game right now, if he is getting the job done off the tee he should be right in the mix here at 40/1.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three outsiders this week with the first of them being Alex Noren. I backed him on the restart when a horrendous final round took him out of the equation but he rebounded nicely to finish just outside the top 20 at the RBC Heritage and in a weaker field here he can get involved too. He found his putting boots at the Heritage which is handy because he has had his long game with him. Regulars of the European Tour will know Noren has one of the best short games around. If he has kept his long game sharp he shouldn’t be far away.
Brian Stuard placed for me at a monster price here 12 months ago and I expect another big run from him here. He sits at 15 in strokes gained around the green and he’s in the top 40 in the total putting stats, with many of the stars who hold lofty positions in that ranking not here this week. Stuard hasn’t been amazing with his long game this season but it returned at the Travelers last week where he hit over 70% of fairways and crucially 60 of the 72 greens in regulation. If his irons are working this week he has the tools for another decent showing.
Finally I am going to back on the Lanto Griffin train. I had a ticket on this train for many journeys earlier in the season and there were just enough signs of life from him last week that we should be getting on again. Griffin was inside the top 25 last week where he hit almost 80% of the greens in the right number and that is a big statistic because there has never been an issue with the short game of Griffin, a point he showed at the Houston Open which he won towards the end of 2019. All told this season he has a win, a couple of other top 10s and a batch of top 20s. He’s now on a track that should suit and at a three figure price I can’t resist.
Tips
Back D.Redman to win Rocket Mortgage Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back JT Poston to win Rocket Mortgage Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Noren to win Rocket Mortgage Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back B.Stuard to win Rocket Mortgage Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back L.Griffin to win Rocket Mortgage Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
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