The first European Tour event of the decade actually takes place in South Africa as a large field heads to Johannesburg for the South African Open, a keenly contested event to kick start a huge year of golf into life.
Louis Oosthuizen won the title last year and he will line up to attempt to defend the title he holds but he will know that with the depth of the field this week, he will need to play well if he is to hang onto the crown.
Recent Winners
2018 – Louis Oosthuizen
2017 – Chris Paisley
2016 – Brandon Stone
2015 – Andy Sullivan
2014 – Morten Orum Madsen
2012 – Henrik Stenson
2011 – Hennie Otto
2010 – Ernie Els
2009 – Richie Ramsay
2008 – Richard Sterne
The Courses
There are two courses in operation at the Randpark Golf Club this week – the Firethorn Course and the Bushwillow Course. The Firethorn is the hardest of the two being a par 72 measuring 7,595 yards while the easier Bushwillow is just a par 71 that stretches to 7,114 yards. All players in the field play each course once over the first two days and then it is over to the Firethorn for the final 36 holes of the competition.
Both courses require accuracy off the tee and one of the reasons for that is the trees which line the Bushwillow course in particular. The Firethorn is a beast on paper but it doesn’t play to that length with us being at altitude this week, that does however have an impact on club selection and things so teamwork between player and caddy will be needed. It is generally a low scoring tournament so don’t ignore decent putters.
The Field
Given that there are well over 200 players teeing it up this week the field can be described as massive. It is headed by the legendary South African trio of Louis Oosthuizen, the defending champion this week, Charl Schwartzel and Branden Grace but Erik van Rooyen is looking to propel himself into that level of standing and he also has a tee time this week. Brandon Stone, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Shaun Norris are all hoping to win their home tournament.
There is a decent European flavour to the competition with Eddie Pepperell a leading light from the continent. Thomas Detry is knocking on the door of a maiden European Tour title and he’ll be looking for it here while JB Hansen, Andy Sullivan and Chris Paisley are all regulars in this event. This tournament does count on the Asian Tour standings with Gavin Green among those looking for points for that tour standings.
Market Leaders
It will come as little surprise to anyone that Louis Oosthuizen is the favourite to retain the title this week. He is pretty short though at 5/1 so if you are backing him you’ll need him to win in order to make any sort of a profit. In a 200 runner field I don’t think anyone can guarantee that, especially after a few weeks off, even allowing for the fact that he is clearly the standout player in the field. He is respected but I can’t be backing anyone at 5/1 here.
Erik van Rooyen is the second favourite to come out on top at 10/1. My immediate thought is that is pretty short too although he is a winner at European Tour level now and often contends in better tournaments than this. You often need plenty to go your way in these multi-course events so it is often better to search for some good value. Even though he is a winner now, I don’t seen EvR as value at this price.
Charl Schwartel has a decent record in his home country and he goes into the tournament as the 12/1 third favourite to come out on top in it. He hasn’t played a lot over the last 12 months though because of injury and that has to be a concern for me. If he was nearer 20/1 then his record merits consideration but he is another who just looks a whole lot shorter than he should be given his enforced absence last year.
Branden Grace tees off as a 14/1 poke to land the title but you would be taking an enormous leap of faith if you were to back him to do so. Admittedly he showed a little bit of something like his better stuff towards the end of 2019, but there is no getting away from the fact that his year as a whole was little short of pathetic. It is a different year now and a refresh might have solved the issues but I’d need to see it before I trusted him, especially at a skinny price like this. It is 16/1 bar those named.
Main Bets
Shaun Norris is one of the better scramblers in South Africa and since this event was merged with the Joburg Open that has been a key statistic so it makes sense to take him as my main bet this week. In his last four completed tournaments he hasn’t finished outside the top five across the world so he is in some form as well so there are a lot of boxes that the South African ticks here. If he can keep it in play off the tee then there is enough signs that he is going to take a good deal of stopping this week.
Another man who had a wonderful record when it comes to picking up strokes around the green or getting up and down is Christiaan Bezuidenhout and now that he has won at a course as iconic as Valderrama, he becomes a major play in events like this. He is still not really regarded as a tournament winner in this part of the world, when you consider he is bigger in price than Brandon Stone and almost three times the price of Erik van Rooyen who has the same amount of Tour wins as him. Bezuidenhout showed at Wentworth that these tight courses bring out the best in his game and he looks good value at 33s in an open heat outside the main three.
Outsiders
I’m keeping with the good scrambling theme for my first outsider where I’m going to put faith in the short game of Jamie Donaldson. I’ve done that a few times recently but haven’t had the joy I’d want but I’m convinced we are going to see something good from the Welshman once again soon and I wonder if it will come in an event like this which has a bit of a lottery element to it with the two courses on show, and of course a number of the players having to shake off some rust. Either way he’s overpriced.
Louis de Jager is another man who is overpriced. He finished off last season extremely nicely with a fair effort in Portugal and he has already gone well in Mauritius this season, ending up a shot outside the playoff in that tournament after carding a final round 64 to come scooting through the field. He ended the 2019 season ranked 26 for scrambling which catches the eye this week. He doesn’t have much course form here but he might just be warming to the task now. At 100/1 I’ll pay to see that’s for sure.
Tips
Back S.Norris to win South African Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back C.Bezuidenhout to win South African Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back J.Donaldson to win South African Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Back L.de Jager to win South African Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2020
